Picking pitchers in DFS is the most important part of the game as they routinely generate the most points. I'm going to try and aid in that picking process with some arms I like. I won't have a set number because it will vary day-to-day and it won't be a guaranteed everyday thing because sometimes the slate just isn't appealing enough to give firm recommendations. That doesn't mean I'll necessarily pass on playing, just that I don't want to offer some tepid endorsements that I'm not even all that comfortable with using myself.
Generally, I'll try to include at least one lower level pick, too. I'll be using DraftKings pricing so this will usually be someone who checks in at $8,000 or less.
Not too bad on Tuesday w/Arrieta, Shoemaker, and Bassitt! Much better than Monday that blew up after Liriano's rainout and McCullers' nightmare. At least Godley was sharp. I'd say 4-for-6 so far.
Carlos Martinez ($8,700) STL at CIN – All five of the most expensive arms at DK today (night slate-only) are on the road which is a bummer, but they are all still pretty enticing. I'm going with the cheapest of that group in Martinez. He hasn't seen his division foes since April when he allowed just 3 ER in 12 IP with a 0.92 WHIP and 12 Ks. He's coming off of a clunker against the Rockies (not in Coors) in which they got to him for seven singles, a couple doubles, and a homer… by the pitcher!
I'm 0% worried about that outing. It was his first rough outing in 13 (12 starts, 1 extended relief appearance) as he had a 1.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 86 Ks in his previous 84.3 IP. Martinez has a 25% K rate and 56% GB rate for the season which is a tremendous combo. Of the other 17 qualified pitchers with a 25% or better K rate, only Tyson Ross (63%) tops his GB rate.
Scott Kazmir ($9,300) HOU at TEX – Kazmir is pitching like the three aces at $10K or more (Harvey, Bumgarner, and Cueto) so getting him for $9,300 feels like a discount. His 21.4 PPG over his last 10 is actually better than Harvey's 18.7 and sits on par with Cueto's 21.8 PPG. Bumgarner is pacing the quartet at 23 PPG. Within those last 10 is an outing against the Rangers when he was still with Oakland during which he allowed just 1 hit in 8 IP with 2 BBs and 6 Ks. He has manhandled the Rangers to the tune of a 1.29 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, and 22 Ks in 21 IP so far this year.
Digging Deeper:
Drew Hutchison ($5,400) TOR v. MIN – Hutch is having a Jekyll & Hyde season with a 2.47 ERA at home and a 9.00 ERA on the road. He isn't quite as good as his home numbers, but he's definitely not as bad as the road numbers, either. He's averaging just 11.4 PPG this year, but he's at 18 PPG in the home starts with six of the 10 being 17+ points (including a 40.5-point shutout against the White Sox). Obviously the second we're trolling the sub-$6,000 arms, the risk is amped up to the max, but I'd take a shot on Hutch as an SP2, especially in a tourney.