Picking pitchers in DFS is the most important part of the game as they routinely generate the most points. I'm going to try and aid in that picking process with some arms I like. I won't have a set number because it will vary day-to-day and it won't be a guaranteed everyday thing because sometimes the slate just isn't appealing enough to give firm recommendations. That doesn't mean I'll necessarily pass on playing, just that I don't want to offer some tepid endorsements that I'm not even all that comfortable with using myself.
Generally, I'll try to include at least one lower level pick, too. I'll be using DraftKings pricing so this will usually be someone who checks in at $8,000 or less.
Jake Arrieta ($11,500) CHC at PIT – Yes, I'm headed back to Pittsburgh even after the disaster that was last night with the rain. I was getting really excited about my Liriano/Godley combo (went Liriano/McCullers in my B-lineup, you can guess how that went) early on and then the rains came. The weather looks much clearer tonight and didn't even show up on the Roth Report. Arrieta just completed a huge July with a 1.90 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 27% K rate in 42.7 IP. And he had a 2.94 ERA in 15 starts before that run.
He has shown that last year's breakout was completely real as he remains a premium strikeout asset while further enhancing an already-sharp groundball rate, going from 49% to 52%. He has fanned fewer than six batters just once in his last 11 starts and only three times all year. He has nearly identical gems vs. Pittsburgh this year home and away, too (they somehow avoided in all of 2014):
IP | H | ER | BB | K | |
4/20 at PIT | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
5/17 v. PIT | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
He's been below 17 points at DK just once in his last 10 (9.9 v. CLE when he lasted just 5 IP and had 6 BBs) and at 25 or better in five of them.
Matt Shoemaker ($7,500) LAA v. CLE – I'm a little torn on my second guy today. I might also go with Patrick Corbin, but he is facing Max Scherzer so the win could be tough. Hell, Shoemaker is facing Carlos Carrasco so there are no guarantees with him, either, but he comes quite cheaply. The cobbler got off to an awful start with a ridiculous 6.29 ERA through eight starts with an impossible 2.6 HR/9, but since then he's been a lot like the 2014 version.
He has a 2.72 ERA and just a 0.6 HR/9 over his last 59.7 innings. He allowed 2+ HRs in five of those first eight, but just once in his last 10 starts. I'd say if you're using a big stud as your SP1 and still have some big bats you want, then Shoemaker is a perfect SP2, but if you have a handful of budget bats you're cool with, you can spend the extra $1,400 for Corbin even if he's not set up perfectly for a W by facing Scherzer.
Digging Deeper:
Chris Bassitt ($4,400) OAK v. BAL – I don't often go for light-strikeout guys, but Bassitt is absolutely dirt-cheap and pitching well enough that the low price might be worth it even with a 16% K rate. Since joining the rotation on June 30th, he has a 3.00 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and that same 16% K rate. Unfortunately, he's 0-4 in the five starts, all of which were 1-run games and four of which the A's gave him a whopping one run of support. You pair Bassitt with a Scherzer or Sale in hopes that they drop double-digit strikeouts and make up some of the deficit for Bassitt.