It's been an ugly season for Stephen Strasburg and perhaps even uglier for those of us with him on our fantasy teams. After all, the Nats are still in first place. The team where I have Strasburg is far from and I'm sure most of you are experiencing something similar. Alas, there may be some reasons for optimism within his two starts since returning from the DL.
The season got off on the wrong foot when the Mets of all teams battered him for six runs (three earned) in 5.3 innings on nine hits and three walks. Boston hit him even harder with five runs (all earned) on 10 hits. The success of his third start (against Philly) wasn't enough to get him going and in fact it seems every time he has a good start, it's followed by two clunkers. Eventually what we all suspected would happen, did: he hit the DL.
Even if there wasn't a major injury, the time off seemed like a good idea for Strasburg. Two starts into his return, it appears the rest served him well. At the top, I have to mention that the opposition wasn't terribly fierce: Atlanta and Philly. These two teams were why the Nats, Mets, and Marlins pitchers all got a fantasy boost this spring. Even the more marginal names in those rotations had value with so many games against the Braves and Phillies.
The Braves have surprised by showing relative competence against righties (21st in wRC+ at 92), but the Phillies have been as expected and perhaps even worse sitting dead last in wRC+ against righties with a 74. However, he wasn't really handling any team, regardless of talent level, before the injury so I'm not going to completely dismiss anything just because it's not against top quality. Through his first 10 starts, he had a 6.55 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, and 21% strikeout rate in 45.3 innings. He had just a 7% swinging strike rate, down from an 11% career mark.
His velocity was down earlier in the year, but it had actually rebounded in May which is part of why he still had so many believers. The velocity has remained at normal levels upon returning and is even up a smidge if you move out to the decimals instead of just rounding. Either way, he's working with 97 MPH fastball on average after sitting 95 through April. Even with velocity working in May, he still wasn't getting swings-and-misses. Velocity is great, but a flat 95 heater will be timed and destroyed by any MLB hitter.
Like most pitchers, Strasburg doesn't generate the bulk of his whiffs with the fastball, but it needs to be effective to set up the secondaries for those whiffs. The fastball was beaten around the yard at a .906 OPS clip through May. It was at .758 coming into the season. The interplay with the changeup is especially important and the lack of respect for his fastball through May trickled down to his changeup. Coming into the season, his changeup had allowed a .418 OPS with a filthy 27% swinging strike rate, but the OPS rose to .625 and SwStr rate fell to just 13% through May of this year.
In these last two starts, he's got a 12% swinging strike which is in line with his career level, and the changeup is up at 32% which is beyond elite. He had a 31% swinging strike rate with the changeup back in 2010 (12 starts) so maybe he recaptures that form, but even if he's "only" at the 25% we've seen over the last two years, it's still very easily elite. The league average mark from 2013-14 was 16% and Strasburg sat fifth with his 25% rate, tied with Jarrod Parker and trailing only Kris Medlen (30%), Cole Hamels (28%), and Danny Salazar (26%).
The changeup will be the key to Strasburg's return to prominence. Obviously given the relationship between fastballs and changeups, you could make the case that his fastball is actually more important since it's setting up that success with the change, but the point I'm making is that it will be his changeup in a starring role if he's going to be the guy we paid for in March.
It's only been two starts of 1.50 ERA and 0.83 WHIP against two weak opponents, but the 15 Ks and 2 BBs is Vintage Strasburg and like I said earlier, it's not like he was ripping through even the worst of teams prior to his DL stint so to diminish these efforts by saying it was against weak competition misses the mark. There is actually a buying opportunity here as well. His season ERA is still disgustingly ugly and there will be some who were just waiting for a solid couple of starts to sell off the risk.
Make no mistake, there is risk, but the upside remains "top pitcher in baseball"-caliber. And when you can buy-low on that kind of upside, you have to take that shot.