For the second half of the 2013-14 season, James Harden provided first-overall fantasy value. It was a precursor to Harden's fabulous 2014-15 season, one that led to him being in the MVP discussion down to the bitter end.
This article aims to provide an overview of this season's second-half performances, both good and bad, in order to try and find players who performed better in the second half of this season so that we can consider whether their improved production will continue next season or merely be a mirage of circumstance this season.
It also proves how much free time I have, preferring to leave no stone unturned in my quest to detach fact from fiction. Every team played between 26-31 games after the All-Star break. Roughly half the league had nothing to play for heading into the final month, cluttering the dataset with noise. Occasionally, you'll stumble across a Bobby Sura, who ended the 2003-04 season on a triple-double binge, never to duplicate his insane production. Other times, mysterious prospects like Tobias Harris switch teams midseason and display their untapped potential.
(Screencap from ESPN.)
For my sanity and streamlining purposes, post-All Star break is abbreviated to pASb. When referring to a player's fantasy rank, I'll focus on their 9-category per game value unless otherwise stated.
Speed of Lightning, Roar of Thunder
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FT% | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 49 | 27.1 | 13.8 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 49.1 | 78.8 | 135 |
2nd half | 26 | 31.1 | 18.7 | 0.1 | 11.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 56.6 | 77.6 | 30 |
Enes Kanter went Cyndi Lauper after the trade deadline and showed his true colors (see below). He recorded 29 assists in 26 games with the Thunder, three more than he mustered in 49 games with the Jazz. Kanter reduced his three-point attempts from 41 to four, improving his effective field goal mark from 50 percent to 57 percent. While playing four additional minutes per game with his new team, Kanter's scoring and rebounding underwent substantial per-possession improvements. However, the small-foreheaded center didn't play a single game with Kevin Durant and just 11 games with Serge Ibaka. He enters the offseason as a restricted free agent. A crowded frontcourt doesn't bode well for Kanter's fantasy prospects next season, especially if Steven Adams reclaims his starting spot from the defensively inept Kanter.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/LPn0KFlbqX8
The Hunt for Gold Nuggets
Once coach Melvin Hunt replaced Brian Shaw, the Nuggets finished the season 10-13, possessing the fifth fastest pace at roughly 99.5 possessions per 48 minutes. Danilo Gallinari recorded two 40+ point games, and Kenneth Faried became the de facto center. Players like Will Barton and Randy Foye entered the fantasy discourse, and Jameer Nelson rode off gently into that good night. Hunt may not be manning the sidelines next season, but to examine pre- and post-All-Star break doesn't tell the entire story of the Nuggets. Instead, let's focus on the team under Shaw and how they changed under Hunt.
Kenneth Faried | GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | 9-Cat Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shaw | 54 | 27.0 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | .491 | 9.1 | .676 | 3.4 | 129 |
Hunt | 21 | 30.0 | 16.3 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | .538 | 11.8 | .717 | 5.0 | 38 |
I was wrong. I didn't believe a coaching change could unlock Kenneth Faried's animalistic instincts. However, by playing him at center and surrounding him with dynamite three-point shooters, Faried dominated the interior by snatching 4.0 offensive boards per contest, tied for fifth-most during coach Hunt's stint. Faried's turnaround can also be attributed to additional playing time and improved free-throw shooting. If you peruse the back of Faried's basketball card, you'll notice he posted identical statistics the last two seasons, good enough for top-90 value in both instances. Faried's four-year, $50 million contract kicks in next season. Depending on the Nuggets' head coach, Faried may finally crack 30 minutes per game.
Danilo Gallinari | GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | 9-Cat Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shaw | 41 | 20.8 | 9.5 | 1.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | .357 | 7.9 | 89.3 | 2.7 | 193 |
Hunt | 18 | 31.8 | 19.2 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | .461 | 13.5 | 89.9 | 4.4 | 9 |
Prior to the All-Star break, Danilo Gallinari was brought along slowly, playing more than 30 minutes just once after sitting out the entire 2013-14 season. Surgery in late December to fix a torn meniscus in his right knee held him out an additional month. Once February began, so too did the Danilo Gallinari revival. Even though he intermittently rested on back-to-backs, coach Hunt played Gallinari 11 more minutes per game and utilized him at power forward a lot. Gallinari was a secondary ball handler and used his speed against larger defenders to drive and kick. He wasn't shy to traverse coast-to-coast, blow by a defender closing out, or display his handles for the hell of it.
Ty Lawson | GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shaw | 56 | 36.4 | 16.3 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 9.8 | 1.3 | 44.5 | 12.8 | 72.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 53 |
Hunt | 19 | 32.9 | 12.3 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 40.6 | 11.2 | 75.4 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 114 |
Shaw's golden child, Ty Lawson, was the one constant during his reign. Under Hunt, Lawson shared backcourt duties with Jameer Nelson and Randy Foye. As noted above, Lawson's shooting touch declined, primarily from downtown, along with his court time. There have been rumblings that Lawson, with two years and $24.6 million left on his deal, could get dealt to the Kings, joining former coach George Karl. Regardless, it appears Hunt won't coach Lawson next season.
Buck Nasty
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FT% | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 41 | 33.9 | 15.0 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 38.0 | 64.3 | 4.2 | 229 |
2nd half | 25 | 30.3 | 14.1 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 42.9 | 78.0 | 3.2 | 89 |
Michael Carter-Williams lost an entire offseason due to shoulder surgery. His shooting was bound to stagnate, if not regress. But once he donned a Bucks uniform following the trade deadline, Carter-Williams elevated his free-throw shooting from 64 percent to 78 percent on a similar number of attempts per game. Armed with improved efficiency, fewer turnovers, and a better supporting cast, Carter-Williams made incremental strides in his development. Perhaps coach Jason Kidd showed Carter-Williams his shot chart because last season's Rookie of the Year nearly extinguished three-pointers from his arsenal, a move for the best considering he knocked in a gag-reflex-inducing 14 percent from downtown pASb. Even though the Sixers and Bucks play at different speeds, Carter-Williams played at the same pace on both squads. His per-possession numbers, sans rebounds on the Sixers and steals on the Bucks, were nearly identical. Carter-Williams finished the second half tied with Russell Westbrook at 2.0 steals per game, sixth most during that time. It bodes well for his fantasy value that he was able to improve his steal rate in fewer minutes per game. He's a gambler through and through, benefiting from long limbs and a swarming defensive scheme.
Do You Believe In Magic?
GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 56 | 28.0 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 42.3 | 7.8 | 54.6 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 233 |
2nd half | 26 | 35.5 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 42.9 | 10.5 | 56.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 77 |
Elfrid Payton provided a glimpse of the future, averaging 8.3 assists, the fifth most dimes in the NBA in the second half of the season, and 2.1 steals (fourth most), in 36 minutes per game pASb. He also improved his free-throw accuracy each of the final three months to a less-than-respectable 65 percent on 2.1 attempts per game in April. His playing time rose when coach James Borrego replaced Jacque Vaughn on February 5th. Additionally, Payton inherited an increased offensive role with injuries to Evan Fournier and Willie Green, two of the four adequate ball handlers employed by the Magic. Tobias Harris also missed his fair share of games, including both of Payton's consecutive triple-doubles. Having already committed to participate in Summer League, we'll get a better understanding if the second-half development is sustainable or sleight of hand.
Mr. October
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 50 | 28.0 | 12.8 | 0.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 43.2 | 11.5 | 86.1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 118 |
2nd half | 27 | 32.2 | 17.6 | 1.0 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 43.6 | 15.6 | 79.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 94 |
Reggie Jackson kick-started his Pistons debut by vomiting onto the court (see below) and finished with max contract aspirations. In 8-category leagues, Jackson provided top-50 value with the Pistons. His 3.5 turnovers per game dropped him 50 spots in the rankings in 9-category leagues. Jackson isn't a skilled shooter, nor does he offer the steals that a lot of elite point guards do. He may also play alongside Brandon Jennings next season in what could rival for the worst shooting backcourt in the league.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/09gPHbHLIDo
Jackson's Pistons tenure was a tale of two lineups: with and without Greg Monroe. Below you'll find his numbers based on Monroe's availability. Generally, it's silly to get caught up in a small sample size, but the evidence is too damning. Jackson averaged eight more assists per 100 possessions without Monroe. Simply by replacing Monroe with a floor spacer, in this case Anthony Tolliver, Jackson was afforded more room to operate. His usage rate climbed from 24.7 percent with Monroe on the court to 30.5 percent without him. No longer was Monroe pounding the rock on the low block, thieving assist opportunities galore. For a career 29 percent three-point shooter, Jackson's 42-percent mark without Monroe doesn't pass the smell test.
GMS | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | 3PM | FG% | FT% | FGA | 3P% | FTA | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
with Monroe | 18 | 32.6 | 15.0 | 4.0 | 7.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 39.6 | 78.8 | 15.0 | 26.8 | 2.9 |
without Monroe | 11 | 32.3 | 20.9 | 5.7 | 10.8 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 49.4 | 77.4 | 16.0 | 41.7 | 4.8 |
It's Always Christmas In Philadelphia
GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 49 | 30.1 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 44.5 | 7.8 | 56.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 86 |
2nd half | 26 | 32.1 | 13.1 | 10.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 48.7 | 10.4 | 65.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 14 |
Nerlens Noel's season reversed course post-trade deadline. Not only did Michael Carter-Williams get shipped off for a draft pick, but Ish Smith became Noel's best resource. Prior to the trade, Noel was still adjusting to his reinvented shooting mechanics and was able to convert 45 percent of his shots when Carter-Williams led the ship. When Isaiah Canaan was on the floor without Smith, Noel was relegated to 40 percent shooting. However, while both Noel and Smith shared the court, Noel shot 53 percent from the floor. Noel himself admitted Smith was the first true point guard he'd played with. Smith was a maestro at alleviating Noel's offensive deficiencies, getting him the ball at the right spot at the right time. In fact, Noel converted 70 percent of his shots after receiving a pass from Smith.
Defensively, Noel was on another level. He spent a majority of his time at center, changing positions his final six games when coach Brett Brown used Furkan Aldemir at the five. During that stretch, Noel's blocks dropped to 1.0 per game, and his steals slid to 1.3 per game. It's an extremely small sample size I can use to plant a seed of doubt in your mind regarding Noel's value heading into next season if he plays power forward next to Joel Embiid, a fruitful seed should you compete in the same fantasy league as me.
Heat of the Moment
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | usage % | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 52 | 33.4 | 16.2 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 50.1 | 13.1 | 74.6 | 2.5 | 21.4 | 64 |
2nd half | 26 | 34.8 | 16.6 | 0.9 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 50.2 | 12.4 | 80.8 | 4.0 | 21.4 | 47 |
Goran Dragic transferred from Phoenix to Miami and joined forces with Dwyane Wade, curator of the second highest usage rate - 34.9 percent pASb; 34.5 percent the entire season. In sharing offensive responsibility with Wade, Dragic still didn't receive his desired jurisdiction. He did, however, successfully tweak the Heat's offensive style from the slowest team (91.8 possessions per 48 minutes) to the 21st fastest team (95.6 possessions per 48 minutes). Dragic battled back spasms and a bruised tailbone throughout March, masking his true potential alongside Wade. He also didn't play any games with Chris Bosh. That could change if Dragic rejects his player option and re-signs with the Heat, not exactly a formality if Dragic truly desires complete offensive autonomy on par with his 32-game stint without Eric Bledsoe during the 2013-14 season.
Did You Know Gobert is Just Yogurt?
GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 53 | 21.9 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 62.9 | 4.2 | 61.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 62 |
2nd half | 29 | 34.4 | 11.1 | 13.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 57.6 | 7.0 | 63.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 19 |
The Jazz posted a 94.8 Defensive Rating pASb, five points better than the Bucks, Grizzlies, Spurs, Pacers, Warriors, and Wizards. The top-rated defense catapulted them to a 19-10 record, sixth best mark pASb. Rudy Gobert was a significant force behind the rapid improvement. Once Enes Kanter was shipped off, along with Steve Novak, Gobert became the defensive fulcrum, terrorizing the league one block at a time. He held opponents to a league-best 40 percent shooting at the rim, slightly better than the likes of Serge Ibaka, Andrew Bogut, and Roy Hibbert.
Gobert's second half per-possession numbers rival those of Larry Sanders' entire 2012-13 season. In case you're a fantasy basketball newbie, Sanders entered the following season in the conversation for second round, no later than a third-round pick in standard 12-team leagues. Gobert faces similar expectations heading into the offseason.
Passion of the Kidd-Gilchrist
GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 36 | 26.3 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 45.2 | 8.1 | 67.3 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 211 |
2nd half | 19 | 33.7 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 48.4 | 10 | 77.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 83 |
The Hornets were 27-28 with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, compared to 7-21 when he missed games due to injury. With the help of shooting coach Mark Price, Kidd-Gilchrist transformed his contorted shooting motion into a workable part of his offensive repertoire. While still not firing away from mid-range at every turn, Kidd-Gilchrist routinely hoisted when left wide open, converting shots from that zone right at the league average of 39.5 percent. Although his per-possession numbers dipped pASb, his minutes increased from 26 during the first half of the season to 34 minutes per game during the second half. Kidd-Gilchrist's accuracy from the charity stripe trended in the right direction, and he didn't attempt a three-pointer all season. Just 21 years old, Kidd-Gilchrist's defensive acuity and rebounding prowess make him a late-round flier candidate heading into next season.
Bledsoe Fresh and So Clean
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FT% | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 53 | 33.9 | 17.2 | 1.1 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 45.0 | 82.2 | 3.1 | 27 |
2nd half | 28 | 35.9 | 16.6 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 44.3 | 75.8 | 4.0 | 99 |
Eric Bledsoe was a culprit of lower shooting percentages and increased turnovers when Suns management reworked the roster at the trade deadline. If we remove turnovers from the equation, of which his 4.0 per game was fourth most, Bledsoe provided top-40 fantasy value pASb, eight spots behind his first half mark. Bledsoe was one of seven players to average at least 15.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists per game pASb. He's an athletic freak in need of an improved jumper, but as long as he runs the Suns' offense and his meniscus problem stays dormant, Bledsoe should be labeled a top-40 entity next season. Even if Brandon Knight re-signs with the Suns, not much changes on Bledsoe's end.
Marcin of the Wooden Soldiers
GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 54 | 29.2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 53.7 | 9.2 | 70.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 70 |
2nd half | 28 | 31.3 | 13.4 | 9.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 61.8 | 10.0 | 69.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 12 |
Well, well, well. Once Kris Humphries was no longer at Randy Wittman's disposal, Marcin Gortat played meaningful fourth quarter minutes. Even though he played all 82 games, Gortat didn't participate in 29 fourth quarters. It's not as though he shot 59 percent from the floor and 79 percent from the free-throw line in the final period. Correction, that's exactly what happened. He finished the season third among qualifiers with a 56.6 percent field goal mark, behind the history-chasing DeAndre Jordan (71 percent) and the underused Jonas Valanciunas (57 percent). By discarding turnovers, Gortat ranked 24th in 8-category leagues pASb.
Gortat played 2,280 of his 2,452 minutes (93 percent) all season with John Wall, the league's second leading assister at 10.0 per game. Gortat shot 63 percent on Wall's passes and provided the third-greatest field goal percentage fantasy value pASb. Based on cursory research, the Wall-to-Gortat combination accounted for the fourth-most assisted baskets for the entire season (chart below). I'm not declaring that Gortat benefits from a commensalism relationship. I'm merely pointing out the Trevor Ariza-like bond when paired with a prolific passer of Wall's nature. It's best to view Gortat's first-half performance a truer indication of his fantasy value and discount his turnover boost.
Passer | Scorer | Assisted Baskets |
---|---|---|
Chris Paul | Blake Griffin | 262 |
Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | 213 |
Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | 169 |
John Wall | Marcin Gortat | 168 |
Jordan Brand
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 31 | 18.1 | 7.6 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 38.9 | 6.7 | 81.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 262 |
2nd half | 28 | 32.6 | 16.7 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 47.9 | 13.9 | 84.3 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 52 |
Per Lakers beat writer Mark Medina, Steve Nash began mentoring rookie Jordan Clarkson in late January. Merge that with coach Byron Scott's aversion to Jeremy Lin, Kobe Bryant's torn right rotator cuff, and Clarkson's ability to get to the rim and hit mid-range jumpers, and you've got a recipe for fantasy gold.
Sustainability is the biggest question surrounding Clarkson. Presumably, the Lakers will regain a healthy Bryant and Julius Randle, sign a few high-priced free agents, and add a top-5 draft pick. An improved supporting cast curtails Clarkson's reliance as the number one option, but adding Rajon Rondo (if the rumors are true of the Lakers' interest) tosses Clarkson into the reserve pile. Even if Clarkson begins the season as the starting point guard, Bryant will control the offense, and coach Scott will try his best to retain a top-3 protected draft pick from the clutches of the Sixers.
Mr. Smith Goes to Cleveland
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 44 | 28.6 | 11.7 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 40.6 | 11.0 | 72.5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 122 |
2nd half | 26 | 31.5 | 12.8 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 43.8 | 10.5 | 81.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 31 |
J.R. Smith surprises people when he plays well. He doesn't surprise a Knicks fan like myself. Over the final 45 games of the 2013-14 season, Smith averaged 16.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 2.9 three-pointers while shooting 45 percent from the field and 43 percent from behind the three-point line in 33 minutes per game. He began that year sidelined due to knee surgery, suspended the first five games over a bout with illegal drug use, and labeled the Shoe Lace Bandit after cameras caught him untying the shoes of unsuspecting players. The previous season, Smith's Sixth Man of the Year campaign, he averaged a career-high 18.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.9 three-pointers on decent percentages.
His 46-game stretch with the Cavaliers wasn't an aberration. Although his role changed from facilitating chucker to spot-up chucker, Smith averaged 12.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 2.8 three-pointers on 39 percent from deep. The numbers were nearly identical in both cities, sans a six-minute bump and double the three-point attempts in Cleveland. The one abnormality was the 81 percent free-throw shooting after one and half seasons of shooting sub-70 percent, not eclipsing 77 percent since his third year in the league. To be fair, Smith graded out as the 229th ranked player during his 24 games with the Knicks. Conversely, Smith finished ranked 39th during his Cavaliers tenure.
A Maverick Becomes Iceman
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 55 | 33.6 | 19.8 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 45.4 | 17.1 | 76.5 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 47 |
2nd half | 25 | 34.0 | 17.0 | 0.5 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 42.2 | 16.5 | 72.2 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 144 |
Monta Ellis attempted 77 three-pointers pASb. He hit 13, or roughly 17 percent of his heaves. Clearly, it's not his forte. While his outside shot suffered, his mid-range touch remained consistently above 44 percent throughout the season, usually worked in isolation to create jumpers. The arrival of Rajon Rondo disrupted the team's offensive spacing and relegated Ellis to a secondary ball handler, decreasing his assist chances. Ellis sloughed through the second half with leg issues, ultimately resting for the first time in three seasons and playing his fewest minutes per game since his rookie season. He appeared rejuvenated in the playoffs, and Rondo's likely departure incentivizes Ellis to re-sign with the Mavericks if he declines his player option this offseason.
How the West was Lost
GP | MPG | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FGA | FT% | FTA | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 39 | 29.7 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 48.0 | 11.7 | 80.5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 61 |
2nd half | 27 | 27.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 45.2 | 8.5 | 66.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 211 |
David West slowly deteriorated as the season progressed. The injured Pacers players trickled back, and coach Frank Vogel leaned heavily on the bench. In fact, the reserves averaged 40.3 points per game, third most, and 9.7 rebounds per game, most in the league. At times, West appeared disinterested, settling far too often for mid-range jumpers, accounting for 58 percent of his attempts pASb. West was often the forgotten man in the second and fourth quarter of games, deferring to Luis Scola and Ian Mahinmi. For a career 82 percent free-throw shooter, West dropped off significantly from the line the final 27 games, barely converting 66 percent of his attempts. He holds a player option heading into the offseason, but with president Larry Bird expressing interest in playing Paul George at the four spot at times next season to modify the Pacers' offensive style, West is in danger of additional marginalization. Roy Hibbert faces the same contractual dilemma as West, and a more diminished role should he return.
A Teague of Their Own
GP | MPG | PPG | 3/G | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | FG% | FT% | TO/G | 9-Cat Rank | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st half | 50 | 31.4 | 17.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 46.7 | 86.9 | 2.7 | 19 |
2nd half | 23 | 28.5 | 13.5 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 44.3 | 84.1 | 3.0 | 75 |
The Atlanta Hawks began resting players before the All-Star break. Coach Mike Budenholzer put the car in neutral and coasted to the finish line. Jeff Teague averaged the fewest minutes of the five starters pASb and suffered the largest drop in fantasy value among January's Players of the Month contingent. Teague still provided top-50 value in 8-category leagues, but the incremental statistical decreases across the board, mainly tied to playing time, were enough to disintegrate his argument as a top-tier fantasy point guard. And honestly, he didn't play well, converting an unhealthy amount of mid-range jumpers (28 percent) and shots in the restricted area (53 percent). He also shared the court more often with Dennis Schroder. While a jump from five percent in the first half to 16 percent pASb of Teague's minutes situated next to Schroder doesn't sound like much, Teague played 900 fewer minutes after the trade deadline. The playoffs haven't been kind to Teague much either, odd considering Playoff Teague is usually the best Teague.
King Me
Coach George Karl installed a fast-paced offense predicated on dribble-drive motion that shifted Rudy Gay to power forward, converted Omri Casspi into Ray Allen from the early 2000s, and used DeMarcus Cousins as the offensive hub. Karl also churned through frontcourt players at an unsustainable rate, guaranteeing everyone over 6-6 displayed how they don't fit the system and won't likely return the following season. Their defense suffered post Mike Malone and plummeted to third worst pASb, registering a 107.3 defensive rating.
Cousins juxtaposed his 4.1 assists with 4.2 turnovers; Gay shot 39 percent from distance and supplied top-20 per-game fantasy value; and Casspi averaged 19.9 points and shot 50 from beyond the arc in April, good enough for top-75 value. Gay and Cousins are locked up for the next three seasons, but the remaining players expire this offseason or next. Casspi attacked the basket relentlessly, attempting 69 percent of his shots within eight feet of the rim the entire season. Based on recent interviews, he'd prefer to re-sign with the Kings. That would bode well for his fantasy value if he starts alongside Cousins and Gay in the frontcourt.
Second-Half Thievery
Player | Games Played | Minutes | Steals |
---|---|---|---|
Kawhi Leonard | 29 | 912 | 75 |
Russell Westbrook | 28 | 1,026 | 56 |
Marcus Smart | 30 | 907 | 56 |
Elfrid Payton | 26 | 922 | 55 |
Nerlens Noel | 26 | 835 | 55 |
The list above details the steals leaders in the second half of the season. You'll find the Defensive Player of the Year, three rookies, and Russell Westbrook.
Marcus Smart recorded 12 blocks pASb, second most on the Celtics - highlighting their lack of rim protection. He shot 37 percent from the floor, 32 percent from downtown, and 62 percent from the free-throw line, effectively labelling him a one-category specialist heading into next season's draft.
For the second straight second half, Kawhi Leonard provided top-10 per-game value. This time, he did so after undergoing early-season bouts of conjunctivitis and a right hand injury one doctor "has never seen before." Leonard has missed an average of 19.3 games per year over the last three seasons due to injury. The Spurs could face roster upheaval this offseason with impending free agents Tim Duncan, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, and Marco Belinelli. Leonard's role has undergone a sizeable increase and will likely expand. He just needs to avoid these obscure injury scares.
Russell Westbrook assumed Kevin Durant's role from the 2013-14 season. Think about it. Westbrook missed chunks of time due to knee surgeries, affording Durant the chance to average 35.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.7 blocks, and 2.6 three-pointers in 39 minutes per game after Westbrook's post-Christmas operation in 2013-14. Durant's numbers subsided upon Westbrook's return, and as mentioned above, James Harden closed the pASb as the number one fantasy player in 2013-14. This season, Westbrook posted 30.6 points, 9.1 assists, 7.7 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 1.4 three-pointers, and a 40.2 usage rate in 40 games without Durant. When paired together, both guys devastate opponents, yet hold each other back from achieving peak statistical dominance. Consider that when projecting Westbrook's 2015-16 season. More Durant means less possessions for Westbrook and potentially fewer minutes if the Thunder aren't battling for the playoffs until the final day of the regular season like they were this season.
Three's A Crowd
Kyle Korver shot 43 percent from the field pASb, a nine percent drop off. That coincides with Korver's inhuman three-point prowess regressing to well-above-average accuracy, sniping at 43 percent from deep pASb.
Jae Crowder hit just 30-of-112 three-pointers. That's 27 percent.
Jimmy Butler converted 51 percent of his three-pointers in 16 games pASb. His per-game fantasy ranking slipped slightly because his playing time dropped three minutes per game.
Nikola Mirotic hit 29 percent of his three-pointers pASb and finished the season at 32 percent from deep, the worst mark among players attempting at least 300 three-pointers.
Stephen Curry missed out on 50/50/90 pASb Club by one field goal. His 125 made three-pointers pASb matched Brandon Knight's season total. Curry's second-half prowess from beyond the arc was better than all but 30 players' entire season.
C.J. Miles was remarkable from distance, canning 2.6 threes per game at 40 percent pASb. Nevertheless, he was the only player averaging at least 25 minutes per game and less than 1.0 assist, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block per game pASb.
Damjan Rudez shot 51 percent from deep pASb, a stark contrast from his 35-percent archery in the first 43 contests. A majority of his makes were on wide-open corner threes while he was playing small forward with the team's second unit. Opponents were all too willing to leave him alone in the corner, a la R.E.M.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/xwtdhWltSIg
Courtney Lee played the tail end of the season with a torn ligament in his shooting hand. That partially helps explain his shooting lull. He connected on just 32 percent of his three-pointers pASb after nailing 45 percent from distance prior to the break.
Eric Gordon hit 47 percent of his above-the-break three-pointers and 41 percent of his shots in the restricted area pASb. On the year, he converted 44 percent of his three-pointers and 44 percent of his attempts in the restricted area.
Quincy Pondexter shot 46 percent on three-pointers pASb. He had the largest improvement from the first half to the second half, upgrading from 33 percent.
Anthony Morrow hit 50 percent of his field goals, 51 percent of his three-pointers, and 91 percent of his free throws pASb. His ludicrous efficiency, lack of turnovers, and 2.6 three-pointers per game landed him inside the top-50.
Hollis Thompson knocked in 46 percent of his three-pointers pASb. In his career, Thompson hit 182 three-pointers at 40 percent. He joined an exclusive club of 12 players in league history to hit at least 180 three-pointers on at least 40 percent efficiency during their first two seasons. Right before Christmas, Thompson was stricken with a serious upper respiratory infection, costing him 20 pounds and 11 games. By the time February rolled around, Thompson regained the touch that helped him lead the 2013 draft class in three-point percentage.
Isaiah Canaan launched 7.4 three-pointers in 26 minutes per game with the Sixers, the second most attempts behind Stephen Curry. His tenure as the lone point guard lasted three days before the Sixers claimed Ish Smith off waivers. It was for the best, especially in Nerlens Noel's case. Canaan wasn't in shape, couldn't run the offense effectively, and managed 0.7 steals per game on a team that swiped the third most per game pASb (9.3), facilitating the possibility of Tony Wroten leading the Sixers to the playoffs next season.
Marcus Morris, the three-point shooting Morris twin, shot 30 percent from downtown pASb when his role increased in light of Brandon Knight's ankle injury. He also shot 60 percent from the free-throw line. Turns out, Morris doesn't shoot as effectively when facing off against other starting units. That's actually true for most players, but Morris' decline in the starting unit explains why he's better used as a reserve.
Block You, Block You, Block You.
You're Cool.
Block You, and I'm Out.
John Henson averaged 2.2 blocks pASb in 19 minutes per game. His 64 second-half blocks matched Hassan Whiteside for third most in 107 fewer minutes.
Bismack Biyombo blocked 1.8 shots in 22 minutes per game and shot 68 percent from the free-throw line pASb. The blocks aren't the abnormality; it's his improved, hopefully sustainable, free-throw shooting. He ended the season a career 53-percent foul shooter, potentially deceptive if he can carry over his second-half improvement into next season.
Joel Anthony swatted 1.7 shots in 12 minutes per game pASb. His playing time ramped up when Greg Monroe sustained a knee injury. Otherwise, Anthony wouldn't even be on the radar.
Kevin Martin Blocked Your Shot
Kevin Martin blocked one shot all season. The victim? Greivis Vasquez attempting a three-pointer on March 18th, 2015.
The Best of the Rest
Brook Lopez corralled 9.2 rebounds in 32 minutes per game pASb, his most since averaging 8.1 rebounds during his rookie season in 31 minutes per game. Otherwise, the rest of his per-possession numbers were similar during both portions of the 2014-15 season. The minute boost pASb accounted for a 48-spot jump from the 57th ranked per-game value to the 9th best per-game value fantasy asset once the team swapped Kevin Garnett for Thaddeus Young. Lopez was one of three players to average at least 19.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game pASb.
Kemba Walker dropped outside the top 100 pASb. He was eased back into the lineup after undergoing knee surgery in late January, not returning until mid-March. Walker averaged 31 minutes per game pASb, a four minute per-game decline from his pre-All-Star game form. His per-possession numbers were similar, but Walker's efficiency dragged. He converted 35 percent of his shots and 26 percent of his three-pointers. Not only did Walker clang from distance, but his 44-percent mark in the restricted area pASb guaranteed Walker's third time in four seasons shooting worse than 40 percent from the field. If general manager Richard Cho can provide floor spacers for Walker this offseason, opponents won't easily help off the Hornets' non-lethal threats on the perimeter. Better shooters equal more spacing, a prerequisite for unimpeded forays to the basket. Also, with Mo Williams set to be an unrestricted free agent, Walker is bound to revert to his typical playing time.
George Hill changed the fortunes of the Pacers. His presence removed Donald Sloan from the rotation, shifted Rodney Stuckey to the bench, and led the Pacers to a 26-17 record. Without Hill, the Pacers were 12-27. Stuckey shot 50 percent from the floor and a career-high 44 percent from downtown while sharing the court with Hill, numbers that dipped to 42 and 37 percent respectively. Hill was limited by Lance Stephenson the previous season and injuries this season. Once he returned to the starting lineup, Hill secured top-25 per-game fantasy value pASb, elevated due to his increased playing time and offensive role. The per-possession numbers from both halves of the season were nearly identical.
Dwyane Wade offered glimpses of his former self this season, but this iteration isn't as conducive to fantasy basketball circles, especially those competing in 9-category leagues. The arrival of Goran Dragic, combined with the absence of Chris Boshm manifested itself into more inefficient shots and fewer assists. Wade attempted more three-pointers pASb than prior to, locking in at 26 percent, par for the course. He didn't shoot 50 percent from the field in any season until LeBron James joined the Heat, an axiom that held true this season with Wade shooting 45 percent pASb and 47 percent overall, the third-worst mark in his career.
Andrew Wiggins played a league-high 1,140 minutes pASb and finished second to James Harden in total minutes for the season. On both sides of the All-Star break, Wiggins provided top-140 per-game fantasy value, a salient red flag. At the peak of his powers, from his breakout game against the Cavaliers until Kevin Martin returned from injury, Wiggins provided top-60 per-game value in 38 minutes per game. The rookie shot 16 percent from downtown pASb, a 20-percent decline from his first half. He attempted 7.9 free throws per game pASb, fifth most in the league. Minutes leader or not, rookies don't typically generate that many free looks nor do they have the support from the referees. Only Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, and Marc Gasol have drawn more total fouls as a rookie over the past 10 seasons.
Zach Randolph pulled down four fewer rebounds per game pASb, affecting his scoring prospects in similar playing time. He fell from fifth in rebounds per game prior to the All-Star game to 31st pASb with 8.1 boards per game, tied with Alex Len, who averaged six fewer minutes per game. The regression dropped Randolph to just inside the top-100 after the break based on per-game value, his territory the previous two seasons. On an unrelated note, Randolph led the NBA in three-pointers from beyond half court, nailing two out of five heaves.
Quick Hits
Dennis Schroder averaged 13.1 points and 5.4 assists in 23 minutes per game pASb. Of those averaging at least 10.0 points and 3.0 assists, Schroder played the fewest minutes per game. He posted near identical numbers to teammate Jeff Teague, steals notwithstanding, in five fewer minutes per game.
Evan Turner averaged a team-high 6.9 assists per game pASb. Last season, Jordan Crawford averaged 6.1 assists as the starting point guard for the Boston Celtics. Next season, fill-in-the-blank cast aside, shooting guard will average at least six assists per game under coach Brad Stevens.
Joakim Noah averaged 6.3 assists per game pASB, nearly matching last season's season-half spree of 7.0 assists per game. That mark led all non-guards/wings for the second straight season. It should be noted that Noah only reaches those gaudy assists numbers when Derrick Rose is out with an injury.
Tyson Chandler provided nearly identical statistics in both segments of the season. However, the incremental decline dropped Chander from top-30 value to top-90 value. Although his playing time stabilized and the averages slightly regressed, Chandler is primarily a three-category (field goal percentage, rebounds, blocks) connoisseur. Even then, Chandler is more of a rim deterrent than a shot blocker, averaging between 1.1 and 1.4 blocks per game over the past eight seasons.
Greg Monroe averaged 1.9 steals per game pASb, tied for eighth most and thrusting his per-game fantasy value into the top-25. The rest of his statistical line was nearly identical in both halves of the season, except for a slight boost of three minutes per game extra once the club acquired Reggie Jackson.
Andre Drummond shot 36 percent from the free-throw line pASb. Once Reggie Jackson joined the squad, Drummond shot 57 percent from the field when sharing the court with Jackson versus 40 percent when Jackson sat. Overall, Drummond shot 54 percent, a four-percent increase from his early-season struggles as a back-to-the-basket neophyte.
Ersan Ilyasova stayed healthy long enough to provide top-60 per-game value pASb, dropping to top-90 without turnovers. He replaced Jared Dudley in the starting lineup after a lengthy absence due to a right groin strain and played 28 minutes per game to close out the year. Ilyasova returned to form by converting 43 percent of his threes on a team that shot 33 percent from downtown pASb. Dudley was the polar opposite of Ilyasova, shooting 20 percent on three-pointers pASB, a 24-percent dip from his first-half success.
Justin Hamilton was one of 13 players to average at least 1.0 assist, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block per game pASb. He was the only one to do so in less than 25 minutes per game while leading the group with an 83-percent mark from the free-throw line. This landed Hamilton inside the top-60 based on per game value. The defensively-challenged big man becomes a free agent this offseason. Odds are he's coming off the bench regardless of his landing spot.
Thomas Robinson scored 8.8 points and grabbed 7.7 rebounds in 19 minutes per game with the Sixers. He's the third person in NBA history to play that few minutes and record those stats. If it's offensive rebounds you seek, look no further. If it's a player worth owning in 12-team leagues, avoid seduction from such tantalizing points and rebounds.
Arron Afflalo averaged a combined 1.6 assists/steals/blocks with the Trail Blazers in 30 minutes per game. Other than Bojan Bogdanovic, who had the same numbers in four fewer minutes per game, Afflalo boasted the lowest combined tertiary stats amongst rotation players.
Dante Exum attempted three free throws in 720 minutes pASB, and 66 percent of his shot attempts were from beyond the arc. For comparison, Exum's three free-throw attempts were the fewest of any player who played at least 200 minutes pASb. He shot 29 free throws prior to the break.
Rodney Hood evaded major foot problems pASb to display his offensive prowess. When he wasn't converting three-pointers to the tune of 42 percent, Hood attacked the basket with his controlled dribble. Nonetheless, the rookie guard benefited from an easy April schedule and increased playing time.
Miscellaneous
Zach Lowe recently chided those who berate James Harden's propensity to draw fouls, correctly noting Kevin Durant's attempts more per possession. Well, DeMarcus Cousins led the NBA with 8.8 fouls drawn per game, 2.1 more than James Harden, the second-most foul drawer. Cousins drew 8.6 fouls in 33 minutes per game pASb and also had his shot blocked a league-high 1.8 times per game.
I expected Brandon Bass to get bought out. You expect Brandon Bass to get bought out. Brandon Bass expected Brandon Bass to get bought out. Instead, Bass shot 55 percent from the floor pASb, an eight-percent increase from his first-half performance. Injuries to Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger forced the team's hand, but Bass, too, decided to forego a potential buyout in the final year of his contract. He shot a prime LeBron James-like 73 percent in the restricted area and a sultry 45 percent from mid-range. He also played every game for the third straight season, extending his streak to 279 consecutive games played, the third longest active streak in the NBA.
Bojan Bogdanovic shot 51 percent from the field and 42 percent from downtown in 26 minutes per game. Deron Williams shot 41 percent (38-of-92) in the restricted area.
J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, and Chris Paul finished third, fourth, and fifth, respectively, amongst qualified free-throw shooters, all converting 90 percent of their freebies for the entire season. Redick connected on 72-of-75 at the charity stripe pASb.
Hassan Whiteside recorded six assists in 1,142 minutes the entire season, three on either side of the break. While you're not drafting Whiteside for assists, his 48-percent mark from the free-throw line pASb is another strike against his categorical diversification.
Unsuspecting Second Half Team Usage Rate Leaders
Team | Player | Usage Rate |
---|---|---|
Atlanta | Dennis Schroder | 29.9% |
Golden State | Marreese Speights | 29.1% |
LA Lakers | Jordan Hill | 25.8% |
Philadelphia | Ish Smith | 25.9% |
Phoenix | Gerald Green | 28.8% |
Here's the thing: usage rate can tell any story you choose. When distilled, the metric measures how many of a team's possession ends with a shot, free-throw attempt, or turnover. It has no bearing on the amount of minutes they play, and can be elevated for reserves when they anchor the second unit. Why did Russell Westbrook have a near-record usage rate this season? Well, the 5.3 turnovers per game pASb, combined with obscene shot attempts and Kevin Durant's absence, ballooned his total.
Numbers courtesy of basketball-reference, statmuse, stats.nba.com, basketballmonster, and nbawowy.