Today we conclude our look at ADP differentials between Standard and PPR formats with the tight end position. Running backs and wide receivers were examined last week.
Jimmy Graham is the undisputed TE1 of the NFL and aside from maybe one wide receiver sneaking ahead of him in PPR drafts, his ADP remains in the seven to nine range. Behind him are Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas, who posses the combination of elite physical traits and scheme opportunity for elite production, but have nagging injuries preventing fantasy owners from selecting them with 100% confidence. Next is a steady, yet unexciting stable of veterans followed by a dartboard full of young talent daring you to dream. After the top-3, fantasy owners are waiting on tight-ends, much like quarterbacks, realizing minor upgrades are not worth the price tag.
First, let's look at the ADP breakdown of tight ends selected among the top-150 overall, sorted by differential. Standard draft numbers come from Yahoo. PPR data is from National Fantasy Football Championship (courtesy of our friends at STATS), which is always PPR-only.
Player | ST | PPR | DIFF |
Charles Clay (Mia) | 127.0 | 119.9 | 7.1 |
Rob Gronkowski (NE) | 45.3 | 39.0 | 6.3 |
Julius Thomas (Den) | 33.2 | 29.1 | 4.1 |
Martellus Bennett (Chi) | 119.7 | 117.5 | 2.2 |
Jimmy Graham (NO) | 7.7 | 8.3 | -0.6 |
Zach Ertz (Phi) | 111.8 | 113.2 | -1.4 |
Jordan Reed (Was) | 89.8 | 92.5 | -2.7 |
Ladarius Green (SD) | 129.6 | 132.6 | -3.0 |
Delanie Walker (Ten) | 134.5 | 143.0 | -8.5 |
Jordan Cameron (Cle) | 53.2 | 63.7 | -10.5 |
Eric Ebron (Det) | 128.0 | 140.7 | -12.7 |
Heath Miller (Pit) | 134.6 | 148.2 | -13.6 |
Jason Witten (Dal) | 60.9 | 77.1 | -16.2 |
Dennis Pitta (Bal) | 68.9 | 86.6 | -17.7 |
Antonio Gates (SD) | 120.0 | 146.9 | -26.9 |
Greg Olsen (Car) | 61.7 | 90.0 | -28.3 |
Vernon Davis (SF) | 46.0 | 74.3 | -28.3 |
Kyle Rudolph (Min) | 72.2 | 103.4 | -31.2 |
Unlike wide receivers, who are being selected 6.5 slots higher in PPR formats than standard, tight ends are actually going 10.1 picks later on average.
Favored in PPR Leagues
Charles Clay, MIA (+7.1)
Clay enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2013 thanks to 102 targets as Ryan Tannehill's security blanket and team-leading 18 third down conversions. His 69 catches ranked 7th among tight ends. With an H-back build, he's less of a traditional red zone threat than other basketball-bodied players at the position, so his value comes from getting open underneath and making plays after the catch.
Rob Gronkowski, NE (+6.3)
Health is obviously the key for Gronkowski, who is on track to start week 1 for New England, so his ADP should rise accordingly in any format. PPR-leaguers seem more willing to employ the Gronk-plus-replacement-level-TE strategy and the "questionable" game day status that will almost certainly follow him all season.
Julius Thomas, DEN (+4.1)
The former hoopster burst on the scene last season with 65 catches for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns. After another year of development and former No. 2 receiver Eric Decker leaving town (and his replacement, Emmanuel Sanders measuring in at only 5-foot-11), expect Thomas' red zone targets to rise along with his overall output. Orange Julius has the potential to blow past his 73, 844, 10 projection in 2014.
Favored in Standard Leagues
Kyle Rudolph, MIN (-31.2)
The outlook for Rudolph in 2014 is better than you would think for a guy coming off a season with only 30 receptions for 313 yards and three touchdowns. Norv Turner is the new offensive coordinator in Minnesota and his offenses have been extremely tight end friendly. Considering Jordan Cameron and Antonio Gates are the last two he coached, Rudolph should be licking his chops. He might not be as athletic as those two guys, but the 6-foot-5 tight end is a big red zone target who caught nine touchdowns in 2012.
Vernon Davis, SF (-28.3)
Differentials favoring standard leagues are much larger for tight ends due to players like Davis, whose value in 2013 came from 13 touchdown receptions. The 6-foot-3, 250-pounder is not your typical tight end, in that he is used more as a deep threat than a chain mover. When you consider Davis averages 6.6 touchdowns per season and is competing with Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, Stevie Johnson and Frank Gore for touches, his volume could shrink in 2014.
Greg Olson, CAR (-28.3)
Unlike Vernon Davis, Olsen has zero proven receivers competing for catches in Carolina. In fact, the starting offensive unit for the Panthers' first preseason game was a two tight end set with rookie Kelvin Benjamin lined up as the only wide receiver. They will be a run-first team, but Olsen is the only pass-catcher that has any rapport with Cam Newton.
Note: Dwayne Allen, Tyler Eifert, Jared Cook, Coby Fleener and Garrett Graham were in the top-150 of Yahoo drafts, but not NFFC.