Mark Melancon was one of the reliable closers for me coming into 2015. He wasn't quite the unquestioned elite like Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, and Dellin Betances (we see how well putting him into the unquestioned elite has worked out for me), but he was right there with pre-injury Kenley Jansen, Cody Allen, David Robertson, Steve Cishek, and Trevor Rosenthal. Melancon was brilliant filling in Jason Grilli in 2013 and then wrestled the job way altogether in 2014 after a down period from Grilli (that eventually led to his trade to LAA).
A key to Melancon's success has been a 93 MPH cutter that he leans on. He used it 76% of the time in 2013 and 65% in 2014, always with big results. Batters managed just a .580 OPS on the pitch the last two years, 11th-best in baseball over that time (looking at cutters, sinkers, and four-seamers). He only had a 16% K rate on the pitch, but like most guys, he doesn't get his Ks off the fastball offering so his rate is essentially average (15.5%). It's been just three appearances this season, but is there reason to be concerned about Melancon's cutter?
Through his first two outings, it was still holding down the opposition as they were just 1-for-7 off of the pitching with two strikeouts (good for a misleading 29% K rate), but the velocity was way down at 89.3 MPH according to Brooks Baseball. The velocity struggle continued this afternoon against the Tigers and they made him pay until his curve bailed him out against Victor Martinez to finish the game:
| Batter | Speed | Pitch | Result |
| Kinsler | 89 | Cutter | Called Strike |
| Kinsler | 90 | Cutter | Foul |
| Kinsler | 89 | Cutter | In play, no out |
| Miggy | 89 | Cutter | Called Strike |
| Miggy | 90 | Cutter | In play, run(s) |
| J.Martinez | 89 | Cutter | Ball |
| J.Martinez | 88 | Cutter | Called Strike |
| J.Martinez | 89 | Cutter | In play, run(s) |
| Cespedes | 90 | Cutter | Called Strike |
| Cespedes | 80 | Knuckle Curve | Called Strike |
| Cespedes | 79 | Knuckle Curve | In play, no out |
| Castellanos | 89 | Cutter | In play, out(s) |
| V.Martinez | 89 | Cutter | Ball |
| V.Martinez | 89 | Cutter | Called Strike |
| V.Martinez | 79 | Knuckle Curve | Ball |
| V.Martinez | 88 | Cutter | Ball |
| V.Martinez | 90 | Cutter | Foul |
| V.Martinez | 80 | Knuckle Curve | Swinging Strike (Blocked) |
You don't even need to do the math to see that he was still in that 89-90 MPH range again today. Sure, it's early, but the cutter hasn't spent a single month below 92 MPH throughout Melancon's entire career. Plus, in the Information Age of fantasy baseball, we can ill-afford to sit around and wait for things to happen. I preach patience with the best of 'em, so I'm not calling for anyone to cut Melancon, but you might want to start scouting potential replacements and prepare for a situation where he is no longer closing, whether temporarily or something long-term.
The Pirates fancy themselves contenders (and with good reason) so they can't afford to give away any games in the bullpen. Their best reliever outside of Melancon is probably Tony Watson, who was just unreal last year. He is a lefty which could impede ascent into the role should Melancon fall, but he handles both sides of the plate (though definitely better v. LHB) and he doesn't allow homers (0.8 HR/9 for his career, 0.6 in these last two standout seasons).
Antonio Bastardo could be a candidate as well, though he's also a lefty. He doesn't have much of a platoon split and does keep the ball in the yard nicely, but walks have been an issue throughout his career. My darkhorse remains Radhames Liz, their latest reclamation project. He's working 93-95 MPH with an 84 MPH swing-and-miss slider. I think Melancon will get a pretty sizable leash, but if you're one of those players who punts saves and prefers to troll the wire, you might want to start speculating after Melancon's first blown save.