As a warm-up yesterday, I entered a big tournament for $1 and wound up taking back $2.50, finishing 1365 of 28736. I might have won a few more bucks had Wei-Yen Chen been able to make it out of the fifth inning with a six-run lead. I had forgotten how annoying MLB DFS can be - I had Marcel Ozuna going, and he was on deck with one out and the bases loaded (and one of the guys on base was Giancarlo Stanton, who was also on my roster) when Martin Prado grounded into a double play. Just strike out for God's sake! I hate it when players do a worse job of protecting my interests than I would. I guarantee if I were at-bat in that spot, I would strike out against Alex Wood (despite my righty-lefty split advantage), sending Ozuna to the plate.
In any event, the annoying-ness of DFS is something I'm used to from season-long fantasy football. Nearly every fall Sunday for the last 20-odd years starts with hope and ends with rage. There's always something that could have gone better, that due to a bad bounce or an easily avoidable error does not. It's amazing to discover that particular synthesis of regret, disgust, self-loathing, injustice and betrayal is available in the spring too, and not only once per week, but every goddamn day.
That said, I was quite pleased with myself for earning a $1.50 in profit yesterday, and I briefly entertained the fantasy of building from my $1.84 initial bankroll into some huge amount over the course of the year, but (a) that would almost certainly fail; and (b) it would just delay getting into the real business of spreading out a few entries, managing my bankroll and putting real money on the line. So I logged back on to Fanduel, selected $1000 for the deposit, typed my Starwood Amex number in and hit submit. Only it didn't take.
Apparently, Fanduel - like the rest of the planet - doesn't like Amex's exorbitant (3.5%) merchant fees, i.e., their "rake." I know we're not supposed to talk about the rake DFS companies take because that's a gambling term, and they don't want their legally sanctioned business confused with gambling, but ironically Amex's rake is too big for Fanduel. That's too bad because my Chase Freedom Visa card gives me five percent cash back on select purchases, but DFS is not among them.
Now this talk of credit cards and cash back might seem beside the point to you, but if we're looking at maximizing our DFS profits, it surely is not. Just as, all things being equal, you want players hitting higher in the order or in hitter's parks for an extra few percent edge, you should squeeze out an extra percent or two on the deposit itself.*
Finally, one big advantage I have over the average DFS player is I'm pretty sure I can write off any losses incurred due to this experiment (will consult with my accountant), and so the US government is effectively paying the rake - and then some - for me. As a matter of social justice, I won't defend this, but I will leverage it to my advantage to whatever extent possible under the existing laws.
With the exciting part out of the way, let's get down to the ugly business of picking my teams! I'm ignoring the two early games today because I don't want my lineups to lock before we know who's playing or the various weather situations (I think there are probably ways to leverage that uncertainty in tournaments, and I'll do that eventually, but not on the first day.)
Bankroll
My plan for today is to play in three $10 50/50s and one $10 tournament. There's no methodology or math behind that, only it feels like a conservative and responsible initial investment given the size of my bankroll.
Strategy
For the most part, I won't turn this into a remedial course on picking opposite-handed match-ups for hitters, hitters higher in the lineup and facing a bad pitcher, optimizing park effects and using Vegas over/under totals and moneyline odds - Michael Rathburn does a great job explaining that stuff, and I'll leave the basics of DFS strategy to him.
I mostly live on this page where all that info is available and incorporate as many of those tenets as I can while still picking the players on whom I have hunches, even if they occasionally violate the conventional DFS wisdom. For example, last night I went with Buster Posey and Paul Goldschmidt even though they were facing right-handed starters. This is going to be more an ideas column than a rigorous, by-the-numbers lineup optimization one, so keep that in mind. For pure lineup optimization, you can click here.
For today's games a couple things jump out. I like that the Brewers have been destroyed at home for two games by the Rockies and face a rookie who had shoulder trouble this spring in Eddie Butler. It seems like a good day to stack a few of their bats against him, particularly fly-ball hitting types as Butler is a ground ball pitcher. Aramis Ramirez, Khris Davis and Carlos Gomez (if I'm going to splurge) might be in some lineups. Adam Lind and Scooter Gennett - who bat left-handed - are also possibilities.
Other angles I like: The Marlins against Shelby Miller, the Red Sox against Aaron Harang (obvious) and anyone cheap in the Diamondbacks/Giants game (also obvious.) On the pitching side, I like Rick Porcello and Wily Peralta for tournaments. I haven't decided who I like for cash games.
I'll post my specific lineups/contests closer to game time when we have more information on who's active.
Lineups
I liked the idea of posting four of them, but I quickly realized how hellish that was. I'd rather play bigger stakes and fewer contests than rooting for and against every player on a given slate simultaneously. Plus, I was getting myself into second-guessing lineup hell trying to swap out different guys and generating extra money left over that I had to find a way to spend. So for tonight - just two lineups: one 50/50 and one tournament:
Tournament ($10, 300 entries, top prize is $400):
P Rick Porcello $7900 - good matchup against weak lineup and weak starter.
C Brian McCann $3200 - Who knows with R.A. Dickey, but hitting fifth, playing at home.
1B Brandon Moss $3800 - A hunch pick - FB power hitter vs. GB pitcher.
2B Jace Peterson $2200 - Too trendy for my taste, but so cheap and leading off.
3B Aramis Ramirez $3400 - Flyball hitting 3B against rookie GB SP who had shoulder issues.
SS Chris Owings $2600 - Hitting second against a pitcher I've never heard of.
OF Carlos Gomez $4400 - FB hitter, part of Brewers stack.
OF Khris Davis $2700 - FB, power-hitter, part of Brewers stack.
OF Giancarlo Stanton $4800 - As long as he doesn't walk three times, I like his odds vs. Shelby Miller.
50/50 ($10)
P Jordan Zimmermann $9900 - Obvious play, but like the floor at home vs. the Mets.
C Buster Posey $4200 - Hard to avoid in AZ against Jeremy Hellickson.
1B Adam Lind $3400 - Hitting third at home vs. RH rookie.
2B Jace Peterson $2200 - Too much value to pass up.
3B Jake Lamb $2300 - Good matchup, park and price.
SS Chris Owings $2600 - See Lamb, Jake.
OF Hanley Ramirez $4300 - Owns Aaron Harang, good park.
OF David DeJesus $2500 - Cheap for a leadoff hitter, decent matchup.
OF Christian Yelich $3600 - Decent matchup, hits second, expect Marlins to score runs today.