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Defending the Crown: Tout Wars Mixed Auction Recap

In a strange way, I didn't really believe that I won the league last year until this past weekend when the 2015 Auctions (and the new Tout Wars X league) took place. Seeing my mug on Foley's bucks along with "VanRiper's Shepherd's Pie" on the menu Saturday night, and getting the in-person acknowledgement from many league mates and colleagues affirmed that the October Yoo-Hoo Shower was deserved, and not a momentary lapse of sanity.


My plan last season was very simple -- spend the premium on Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera, as they were the two best players on the board at that time.

From there, it would just be a matter of finding the right mix of power and speed with value in the middle tiers, and building a pitching staff without spending more than $20 on a pitcher.

If a strategy works, there is rarely a good reason to change it, but as I found last year, it's more difficult to purchase the saves that come into the league with FAAB money than it would seem.

I unintentionally "punted" saves last season, but had enough offense to get away with it. Part of that excess was the result of connecting on Victor Martinez ($5) and Adam LaRoche ($3), who earned a combined $57 profit. My high-end expectations for both players last season would have topped out in the neighborhood of each being worth roughly $15, so it's fair to say I was fortunate to land those particular players in the endgame given their tremendous impact.

This season, I wanted to combine Trout with Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt, or Giancarlo Stanton. I also wanted to have at least one closer on my roster by the end of the auction, but ideally I would have two, even if that meant that Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel had to be my most expensive pitcher.

As part of my preparation, I outlined the following targets for the draft based on the standings from last season:

.340 OBP, 1,000 runs, 1,000 RBI, 250 HR, 160 SB

100 wins, 115 saves, 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 1,400 K

As the auction was about to get underway, I settled on nominating Aroldis Chapman (at $20, my max for him) as the first player off the board.

He went for $23.

During a brief tech delay, Cory Schwartz (of MLB.com and Fantasy 411 fame) asked, "Why Chapman?"

I explained that my goal was to either immediately lock up Chapman at a price I was comfortable with, and to begin setting up the market for closers.

While one player hardly dictates a league-wide trend, the steep price on Chapman was a sign of things to come with relievers during the early stages of the auction. Saves were going to be expensive.

Here are the prices for the first 20 closers off the board in Saturday's auction:

PlayerProj. $CostNet
Aroldis Chapman$20$23-$3
Craig Kimbrel$19$22-$3
David Robertson$14$20-$6
Dellin Betances$17$17$0
Greg Holland$18$22-$4
Jonathan Papelbon$10$15-$5
Mark Melancon$15$18-$3
Steve Cishek$12$16-$4
Huston Street$10$16-$6
Kenley Jansen$8$14-$6
Cody Allen$12$16-$4
Luke Gregerson$2$10-$8
Tyler Clippard$1$6-$5
Trevor Rosenthal$9$14-$5
Joe Nathan$3$3$0
Drew Storen$9$16-$7
Koji Uehara$12$13-$1
Zach Britton$12$13-$1
Hector Rondon$7$10-$3
Glen Perkins$6$12-$6

I was in the bidding on several players before the cost significantly exceeded the projections I had. This trend held up until the endgame, when there were a few bargains available, but my budget didn't have room for Santiago Casilla, even at a mere $4, or Brett Cecil at $3.

My early purchase of Mike Trout ($48, eighth player nominated) just a few players after Jose Abreu went for $36 to Scott Swanay made me feel as though I would be able to get my choice of McCutchen, Goldschmidt, or Stanton a few dollars below their projected cost.

It didn't happen.

Spending was very aggressive through the first 90 minutes of the auction. I didn't have a second player until Hisashi Iwakuma landed on my roster as the 63rd player purchased. As Iwakuma's value goes, I think it's similar to that of Julio Teheran for 2015, albeit with the benefit of pitching in a more friendly home park and on a better team.

Within a span of five nominations, I added Iwakuma, Zack Greinke (at $21, $1 less than my projection), and Dustin Pedroia ($14).

Sonny Gray, a player I have generally been shut out on for the second year in a row in snake drafts because of an inflated ADP, drew crickets when I nominated him at $15.

While I had not overpaid for any of the players on my roster, I wasn't feeling great about the limited amount of talent I had accumulated when we took the first break after 90 players.

The roster started coming together soon after the break, however, as I began to use the surplus of cash in my budget to get discounted prices on potentially high-end players.

Ryan Braun at $25 was followed by Yadier Molina at $12, while Jacoby Ellsbury ($25) and David Wright ($15) were purchased soon after. With a $22 purchase of Adrian Gonzalez, my roster reached the point where I was going to fill in mostly with sub-$10 players.

The core of my roster was coming together, albeit with plenty of health risk.

Here's out it finished up:

PosPlayerProj. $CostNet
CYadier Molina$15$12$3
CMiguel Montero$16$5$11
1BAdrian Gonzalez$24$22$2
2BDustin Pedroia$14$14$0
SSJ.J. Hardy$2$2$0
3BDavid Wright$16$15$1
CIJustin Morneau$15$7$8
MIDaniel Murphy$11$7$4
OFMike Trout$50$48$2
OFRyan Braun$23$25-$2
OFJacoby Ellsbury$21$25-$4
OFCoco Crisp$13$3$10
OFMike Morse$1$1$0
UTJoe Mauer$10$5$5
PZack Greinke$22$21$1
PHisashi Iwakuma$17$15$2
PSonny Gray$16$15$1
PCollin McHugh$13$7$6
PMatt Shoemaker$10$5$5
PWily Peralta$8$2$6
PMatt Cain$3$2$1
PMatt Garza$2$1$1
PKyle Lohse$10$1$9
RDrew Stubbs
RChad Qualls
REvan Marshall
RJordan Walden
RJarred Cosart
RJose Peraza
Total$332$260$72

On both players listed above with negative net values (Braun and Ellsbury), I am more optimistic than their current RotoWire projections.

There is more injury risk spread out around this roster than any I other squad I've assembled, but compared to my categorical targets, here's how the team currently projects:

  • .346 OBP (target: .340)
  • 984 runs (target: 1,000)
  • 1,016 RBI (target: 1,000)
  • 230 HR (target: 250)
  • 152 SB (target: 160)
  • 113 wins (target: 100)
  • 0 saves (target: 115)
  • 3.395 ERA (target: 3.15)
  • 1.163 WHIP (target: 1.18)
  • 1,435 strikeouts (target: 1,400)

Attrition, trades, pickups, and a variety of other events will inevitably change the course of this team, but structurally speaking, the roster has balance in terms of power and speed, run producers and run scorers, and ratios that should be competitive. The pitching volume categories are currently skewed by the nine starting pitchers purchased, but that will be the model I follow with my lineup unless I connect on Qualls, Marshall, or Walden as the bargain basement options on their respective teams for saves.

The full results of the auction can be viewed here.

Other Observations

Fred Zinkie took a very different approach to his roster than I did, building around Anthony Rendon ($26) as his most expensive player. The RotoWire Draft Kit app projected standings have him sitting at a close second following the auction, and his team will probably look completely different by May 1 anyway given his trade-laden approach.

Paul Singman paid $14 for Danny Santana. I am not going to change my mind on Santana between now and Opening Day, but I am curious to see if there's something I missing in Santana's skill set that will allow further growth to offset some of the certain regression to his .405 BABIP from a year ago.

When Andrew Miller fetches $2 and Dellin Betances commands $17, you know what to do. Miller was one of many nice low-priced buys from Tim Heaney.

Neil Walker continues to be underrated. This time, Zach Steinhorn of MLB.com got him for a cool $10.

I am jealous of Patrick Davitt's $5 price on Carlos Beltran, though I ended up just fine in the outfield. I also can't help but wonder if the room my regret letting Jung-Ho Kang slide to Patrick as his first-round reserve pick.

Scott Pianowski's squad looks very strong top to bottom, especially if Miguel Cabrera ($39) is even close to 100 percent for the bulk of the season.

Cory Schwartz got his guy E5 for $35. All is right with the world. Also of note: Schwartz landed Mookie Betts at $18.

Better value for Ray Flowers' squad: Starling Marte at $24, or Chris Davis at $23?

With Madison Bumgarner, Corey Kluber, Gerrit Cole, Yordano Ventura, and Betances, Scott Engel should be at or near the top of the league in strikeouts this season.

Ryan Zimmerman ($18) and Mike Napoli ($8) should be very nice buys for Dave Gonos when it's all said and done. I'm a little disappointed that I didn't get to boat race Gonos in NBA Jam over the weekend though.

Manny Machado hasn't shown great OBP skills yet, but given his age and high breakout potential, it's surprising that he went for just $12 to Joe Pisapia.

Scott Swanay was very aggressive in this year's auction, and his team is loaded with upside talent at good prices: Kris Bryant ($16), Javier Baez ($8), Joc Pederson ($10), Rusney Castillo ($13), Gregory Planco ($15), and Rougned Odor ($1) among them.

Al Melchior ended up with Yasmany Tomas at $5. It seems like a reasonable price even though there could be a very wide range of outcomes with the D-backs' Cuban import. Al's pitching trio of Jacob deGrom ($14), Carlos Carrasco ($13), and Michael Wacha ($11) looks very strong behind his ace, Chris Sale ($28).

Nando Di Fino spent a combined $54 on Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. What is the max that they might be able to earn with relatively healthy seasons? With a pitching staff led by Stephen Strasburg ($28), Matt Harvey ($19), and Michael Pineda ($9), Nando appears to have executed his "Stars and Circles" strategy effectively.

Which team(s) do you like the most coming out of the auction, and which buys do you feel were among the best (and worst) from Saturday's auction?

Let me know on Twitter @DerekVanRiper.