(Why yes, I did want to be the first person to make that awful pun. Why do you ask?)
When Anthony Gose got swapped to the Tigers this offseason, nobody thought much of it. He was looking like yet another prospect who didn't entirely pan out, a slick defender with wheels who couldn't hit enough to earn a regular job and would probably end up as a fourth outfielder. There were noises about a platoon with Rajai Davis, but given that Gose is just a career .241/.316/.350 hitter versus righties, that seemed more like a case of keeping him away from same-side pitchers rather than trying to maximize his strengths.
Then spring training happened.
Now, spring training stats don't mean anything. That gets drummed into our heads time and again. Small sample sizes against opposition of wavering quality in minor league ballparks... there's just way too much noise in that signal to tease anything of significance out of it. Still, we want to believe, don't we? We remember Albert Pujols' emergence from Nowheresville and want to be the person who successfully identifies the next big thing (and, of course, reaps the fantasy rewards). So when Gose begins his spring with an incandescent .520/.586/.880 line that includes three doubles and three triples in 25 at-bats, with more walks than strikeouts, it's hard not to get swept up in the "what ifs". What if it does mean something? What if Gose suddenly does have a major league bat? What's his ceiling? 10 home runs, 30 steals? 15/50? How great would that line look on your roster?
Digging deeper into it, there are reasons to convince yourself this turnaround isn't a Grapefruit League mirage. When the Phillies called his name in the second round of the 2008 draft, scouts saw plenty of raw potential in Gose. The speed and defense were there from day one, but he showed flashes of a good batting eye, and the frame and athleticism to grow into some power. And when he joined the Tigers this offseason, the club immediately set about retooling his swing. They've been coy about the specific changes, but the goal was to get him away from being the slap hitter the Jays tried to mold him into, and at least let Gose develop some gap power to keep pitchers honest. Mission accomplished, at least through a handful of meaningless spring games.
So: high round draft pick out of high school with all the tools who needed plenty of refinement and who drew Carl Crawford comps in the minors, who moved through two organizations on his way up the ladder, and who now finds himself as a still-young 24-year-old with a third team, a clean slate and a new approach at the plate. That certainly sounds like the kind of narrative you'd write for a surprise breakout player, doesn't it? It sounds like something you'd want to believe in. That's the power of a quality narrative. It sucks you in.
Gose's current ADP is in the 300s somewhere. If his hot spring continues, it'll probably creep up a bit, but not too much, so it'll cost you nothing to find out if his career really is about to blossom. But it'll cost you a similar nothing to take a chance on Juan Lagares, or Cameron Maybin, or Kevin Kiermaier, or any of the other probably-a-fourth-outfielder-but-maybe-not guys who always litter major league rosters but who aren't putting up Mike Trout-like slash lines this spring. If you do decide to draft Gose, draft him based on his current projections, which would see him be a moderately useful source of steals and not much else, not based on those what if, better-than-the-best-case scenarios.
But maybe bump him up near the top of that late round target sleeper list you're compiling. Y'know. Just in case.