Javier Baez.
Average Killer, right?
Let's just say I am not ready to bury him in that file after 52 games at the big league level.
Especially when he's flashed a lot of power.
Baez had unprecedented contact issues upon promotion by the Cubs last summer. He wasn't exactly trending in the right direction as the season ended, and he finished with a strikeout rate of 41.5%. The optimistic owners who held him all season or picked up him upon promotion were rewarded with a .169 AVG, 9 HR, 5 SB, 20 RBI, and 25 R for their troubles.
Baez has struggled upon promotion to other levels, eventually adapting and putting up excellent numbers. That process can take a lot longer at the highest level, but even while he goes through his share of growing pains, Baez should offer a ton of power (69 home runs across four levels since the start of the 2013 season).
Currently, Baez has a 131.61 ADP in NFBC drafts, making him a consideration in the latter part of Round 9 in 15-team mixers. He fell to 220th overall in the ongoing Fantasy 411 Slow Mock powered by glaciation.com and 192nd overall to @allinkid (Jake Ciely) in Mixed LABR.
For a player with eligibility at shortstop and second base, and one who opened last season as a top-10 prospect in baseball on many lists, it seems as though Baez may be falling too far, even with the issues noted above.
Perhaps there is a misunderstanding regarding the amount of damage he will do with batting average.
I built out the chart below with the following parameters:
- A 15-team mixed league, with a team having 7,515 at-bats in the starting lineup over a full season.
- The Cubs having a willingness to give Baez our projected 515 at-bats in 2015, regardless of the outcomes charted below.
- The team in the example is hitting for a combined .260 average prior to Baez's contributions (7,515-515= 7,000 non-Baez ABs and then 7,000 x .260 for 1,820 non-Baez hits)
- The hypothetical league is my 2014 NFBC Main Event League, where a .260 average would have been worth 6 out of 15 points in the standings.
Here is a look at a variety of scenarios for Baez's 2015 season, and the impact having him in the active lineup for all 515 at-bats would have in these conditions.
| Baez | Baez | Team | Team | Standings | Stand Pts |
| Hits | AVG | Hits | AVG | Position | Net Loss |
| 80 | 0.155 | 1900 | 0.2528 | 1 | -5 |
| 81 | 0.157 | 1901 | 0.2530 | 1 | -5 |
| 82 | 0.159 | 1902 | 0.2531 | 1 | -5 |
| 83 | 0.161 | 1903 | 0.2532 | 1.5 | -4.5 |
| 84 | 0.163 | 1904 | 0.2534 | 2 | -4 |
| 85 | 0.165 | 1905 | 0.2535 | 2 | -4 |
| 86 | 0.167 | 1906 | 0.2536 | 2 | -4 |
| 87 | 0.169 | 1907 | 0.2538 | 2 | -4 |
| 88 | 0.171 | 1908 | 0.2539 | 2 | -4 |
| 89 | 0.173 | 1909 | 0.2540 | 2.5 | -3.5 |
| 90 | 0.175 | 1910 | 0.2542 | 3 | -3 |
| 91 | 0.177 | 1911 | 0.2543 | 3 | -3 |
| 92 | 0.179 | 1912 | 0.2544 | 3 | -3 |
| 93 | 0.181 | 1913 | 0.2546 | 3 | -3 |
| 94 | 0.183 | 1914 | 0.2547 | 3 | -3 |
| 95 | 0.184 | 1915 | 0.2548 | 3 | -3 |
| 96 | 0.186 | 1916 | 0.2550 | 3 | -3 |
| 97 | 0.188 | 1917 | 0.2551 | 3 | -3 |
| 98 | 0.190 | 1918 | 0.2552 | 3 | -3 |
| 99 | 0.192 | 1919 | 0.2554 | 3 | -3 |
| 100 | 0.194 | 1920 | 0.2555 | 3 | -3 |
| 101 | 0.196 | 1921 | 0.2556 | 3 | -3 |
| 102 | 0.198 | 1922 | 0.2558 | 3 | -3 |
| 103 | 0.200 | 1923 | 0.2559 | 3 | -3 |
| 104 | 0.202 | 1924 | 0.2560 | 3 | -3 |
| 105 | 0.204 | 1925 | 0.2562 | 3 | -3 |
| 106 | 0.206 | 1926 | 0.2563 | 3 | -3 |
| 107 | 0.208 | 1927 | 0.2564 | 3 | -3 |
| 108 | 0.210 | 1928 | 0.2566 | 4 | -2 |
| 109 | 0.212 | 1929 | 0.2567 | 4 | -2 |
| 110 | 0.214 | 1930 | 0.2568 | 4 | -2 |
| 111 | 0.216 | 1931 | 0.2570 | 4 | -2 |
| 112 | 0.217 | 1932 | 0.2571 | 4 | -2 |
| 113 | 0.219 | 1933 | 0.2572 | 4 | -2 |
| 114 | 0.221 | 1934 | 0.2574 | 4 | -2 |
| 115 | 0.223 | 1935 | 0.2575 | 4 | -2 |
| 116 | 0.225 | 1936 | 0.2576 | 4 | -2 |
| 117 | 0.227 | 1937 | 0.2578 | 4 | -2 |
| 118 | 0.229 | 1938 | 0.2579 | 4 | -2 |
| 119 | 0.231 | 1939 | 0.2580 | 4 | -2 |
| 120 | 0.233 | 1940 | 0.2582 | 5 | -1 |
| 121 | 0.235 | 1941 | 0.2583 | 5 | -1 |
| 122 | 0.237 | 1942 | 0.2584 | 5 | -1 |
| 123 | 0.239 | 1943 | 0.2585 | 5 | -1 |
| 124 | 0.241 | 1944 | 0.2587 | 5 | -1 |
| 125 | 0.243 | 1945 | 0.2588 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 126 | 0.245 | 1946 | 0.2589 | 6 | 0 |
| 127 | 0.247 | 1947 | 0.2591 | 6 | 0 |
| 128 | 0.249 | 1948 | 0.2592 | 6 | 0 |
| 129 | 0.250 | 1949 | 0.2593 | 6 | 0 |
Since this is a disaster scenario chart, I'll assume that Baez is incapable of exceeding a .250 AVG in 2015, although he hit at least .260 at each of his other three stops since the start of the 2013 season.
In addition to accounting for the losses that his low average could cause, a complete calculation would require accounting for his boosts to the other categories while comparing him to other players being drafted at his position(s) around his current ADPs.
As an example, six more home runs for my NFBC team last season would have led to 2.5 standings points. Going through each category, and player-by-player with the alternatives will be a better exercise in determining whether Baez is truly undervalued and to what degree.
Of course, there are scenarios where Baez gets hurt and misses time, or whiffs his way back to Iowa, but we're focusing on a full-season in Chicago.
This topic will likely be examined further in a full article later this week, but I wanted to start the conversation down this path with the hope of getting feedback from owners targeting and avoiding Baez for any number of reasons over the coming days.
Let me know on Twitter @DerekVanRiper how you're planning on handling this talented, but potentially volatile bat this draft season.