On Tuesday night, our Jeff Erickson participated in the 15-team LABR Mixed League Draft. The full results can be viewed here, while Jeff's Live Blog from the draft is also available here.
Skinning cats doesn't serve any modern day purpose, so I'll modify the old adage as follows:
There is more than one way to build a roster.
The industry is full of players with a wide range of backgrounds, which leads to surprises in drafts and auctions every spring. Things are more exciting this way.
It's easy to sit back and insist that someone is wrong in their projection for a player, but without considering the methodology and reasoning behind the valuation, the criticism is pointless. In many cases, it's just a groupthink or mob mentality lashing out because something contradicts the generally accepted norm, or clearly doesn't fit the mold cast by the player's Average Draft Position (ADP).
With that in mind, here are the things that stood out the most to me while looking over the Mixed LABR results this week.
1. Billy Hamilton went 20th overall to Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs.
Billy Hamilton ranked 15th in value on my spreadsheet. Was expecting Braun, picked right before me.
— Mike Podhorzer (@MikePodhorzer) February 11, 2015
As you might expect, the immediate reaction to Hamilton going that early was negative and plentiful. Again, I stress that reasoning is important, and Mike outlined the basis for his projection and valuation of Hamilton in a post after the draft.
Just for the sake of comparison, Dee Gordon went 59th overall -- approximately 15 spots later than his NFBC ADP to Fred Zinkie. I have a difficult time seeing a difference in the skill sets of Gordon and Hamilton, but that Hamilton has less experience against big league pitching may actually work in his favor as it seems more likely that Gordon is closer to being a finished product.
2. Felix Hernandez fell to 29th overall to Fred Zinkie of MLB.com.
In some drafts -- including the FSTA 13-team Mixed League draft in January, Hernandez has been selected as a late first-round pick.
Looking at Fred's recap of the draft, it's clear that he was banking on quality starting pitching being available with his pick in Round 2 based on the tendencies of the other owners last season. Even if he didn't expect Hernandez to be among those options, he had a plan ready based on what was likely to happen based on what he knew about his league mates.
3. Rusney Castillo went nearly two rounds after Mookie Betts.
For different reasons, Castillo and Betts are among the more challenging players to project in rank in the pool for 2015. Still, I think they're nearly identical in value right now.
I have settled on the belief that they will occupy center and right field respectively, while Shane Victorino and Allen Craig get squeezed for playing time. There is a case to be made that Castillo -- with a $72 million contract in his back pocket -- has the more secure playing time of the duo. Both players have the skill set to hit double-digit home runs, with 30-plus steals. Lineup placement could increase their value even further.
4. Jeff Samardzija is the "ace" for the last team (Baseball HQ's Ray Murphy) to draft a starting pitcher.
Shark was drafted in the seventh round of Tuesday's draft -- with the 99th overall pick.
Perhaps there is concern that Samardzija's move into U.S. Cellular Field will push his ratios up. I can't help but wonder if he's being undervalued coming off of a huge skills breakout in 2014.
As noted in my piece for the magazine, Samardzija had an ERA lower than David Price, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg last season, while his combination of strikeouts, groundballs, and a low walk rate make him a great fit regardless of his home park.
5. Discounts on Shin-Soo Choo and Alex Rios remain steep.
There are plenty of players with a significantly reduced price tag from this time last year. Entering 2014, Rios was carrying a 33.81 ADP in the NFBC, while Choo was sitting at 39.23. Tuesday night, Choo went 152nd overall (Zinkie) and Rios went five picks later to Keith Hernandez (from Fantasy Score, not the former Mets first baseman).
Both players dealt with a slew of injuries last season, and while complete rebounds to pre-2014 aren't a lock, Choo should hit at or near the top of a much healthier Rangers lineup in 2015, making him a threat to offer 15-20 homers, 10-15 steals, a good average, and a ton of runs scored. He may also prove capable of driving in more runs than the typical leadoff or No. 2 hitter if the Texas offense gets back on track.
Rios signed with the Royals in free agency, where his power numbers may end up in the high single-digits, but his stolen-base opportunities with green-light heavy manager Ned Yost should fall in the 35-40 range.
6. Chris Carter was drafted ahead of David Wright.
This is jarring, mostly because of Wright's long-term hold on a spot as an early-round pick, and Carter's extreme TTO tendencies.
Much like Choo and Rios, Wright carried a higher ADP a year ago. Health is an overarching concern, as Wright chose rehab over surgery for his lingering shoulder woes.
Needless to say, I need to get a thorough assessment of Wright's health from Mr. Jeff Stotts.
What surprised you from Tuesday's draft?
Let me know on Twitter @DerekVanRiper.