Every player has a price, at least, you should have a price that you're willing to pay for every player in the pool, even if that's just a simple "$1-avoid" label for the players that you expect to do more damage than good to your roster.
Moving through the final stages of preparing my initial 2015 Top 350 for the upcoming RotoWire Roundtable Rankings, it's clear there are a few players that I am highly unlikely to own during the upcoming season.
Dee Gordon, 2B, MIA (NFBC ADP: 41.07) -- It's hardly surprising that Gordon and Billy Hamilton are within a few picks of each other at the present time, although Gordon earned $25 in a 15-team mixed format last season while Hamilton lagged behind at $16.
Both players struggled in the second half, and while 28 hitters managed to earn more with their 5 x 5 production than Gordon, few carry as much risk. Most leagues don't use on-base percentage as a category, but Gordon's precipitous drop in the second half from .344 to .300 after the All-Star break is a huge concern. Moreover, it seemed to be the result of pitchers becoming more willing to challenge him with pitches in the strike zone. Gordon's strikeout rate jumped from 15.3% to 18.2% in the second half, while he nearly stopped drawing walks entirely (from 6.9% to 1.6%).
Gordon can sustain a higher BABIP thanks to his speed -- he tied Jose Altuve for the MLB lead in infield hits (31) last season. He also led all hitters with 20 bunt hits last season, so the .346 BABIP is sustainable.
The second-half .300 OBP came with a 21-for-31 mark on the basepaths with 258 plate appearances, or one stolen base for every 12.3 trips to the plate. For his career, Gordon has 130 stolen bases over 1,319 MLB plate appearances (10.1 PA per SB) and a .314 OBP.
If the Marlins use Gordon as their leadoff hitter all season and he carries the second-half OBP from a year ago, he'd finish with 52 or 53 stolen bases assuming the same rate of attempts.
Of course the question becomes, will the Marlins be patient with Gordon atop the order if he turns out to be more like the second-half player of 2014? Last season, Christian Yelich was a proficient leadoff hitter, toting a .362 OBP. Martin Prado has a career .340 OBP, and could be an option at the top, although his OBP has fallen in each of the past two seasons after peaking at .359 in 2012 (.333 and .321 last season).
With a move out of the leadoff role, Gordon could end up in the bottom third of the Miami lineup. If that were to happen, his runs scored count would take a significant hit.
Adam Wainwright, SP, STL (NFBC ADP: 51.76) -- I expressed my concern about Wainwright a few weeks back in this space:
Even with the optimistic report about his progress following surgery, it's difficult to pay sticker price for Wainwright as the 11th starting pitcher off the board. While he shouldered a heavy workload again in 2014 (243 IP counting the playoffs), Wainwright's strikeout rate tumbled to 7.1 K/9, and his ERA (2.38) was more than a half run below his FIP (2.95). The Cardinals have had internal discussions about being more cautious with Wainwright's innings count this season thanks to the 520 frames he's registered since the beginning of 2013.
Factoring in a lighter workload, the potential for the strikeout rate to stay down, and an ERA closer to his 2014 FIP, Wainwright ends up as a Top-75 player rather than a Top-50 one. The expectation here is that someone in the room will always feel more comfortable with Wainwright than I do. I'd rather have Zack Greinke and Jon Lester than Wainwright, and I'm wrestling with the possibility of Jeff Samardzija over Wainwright if that decision is presented to me at any point this spring.
Nelson Cruz, OF, SEA (NFBC ADP: 57.80) -- The move out of the AL East -- more than the move out of Camden Yards -- will almost certainly drive down Cruz's home-run total in 2015. Last season, 25 of the 40 home runs he hit for the Orioles came on the road, but right-handed power dries up at Safeco Field. The AL West offers a few more challenging environments for Cruz, here are his career lines throughout the parks in division:
- Seattle - Safeco Field - .234/.309/.440 (.749 OPS), 52 games
- Anaheim - Angel Stadium - .218/.274/.381 (.654 OPS), 54 games
- Oakland - O.Co Coliseum - .185/.237/.333 (.571 OPS), 53 games
Of course, he stands to benefit from hitting in two AL West road parks:
- Texas - Rangers Ballpark - .294/.356/.555 (.911 OPS), 404 games
- Houston - Minute Maid Park - .342/.384/.646 (1.029 OPS), 22 games
Projection-wise, Cruz is more likely to have a Marlon Byrd 2014 season (.264, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 71 R) worth ~$19 in a 15-team mixed league than to hit 35-40 homers while playing half of his games in Seattle. He's being taken approximately 40-50 picks ahead of where I would be comfortable buying in.
Sonny Gray, SP, OAK (NFBC ADP: 86.33) -- There were 23 starting pitchers last season who earned as much or more than the $14 Gray brought his owners. Only 18 starters are being drafted ahead of Gray in the typical NFBC draft, so what's the problem? With the increased workload, Gray's strikeout rate fell from 9.4 K/9 (25.7% K%) in his debut to 7.5 K/9 last season (20.4%). He induces plenty of groundballs, and has ample control, but I don't expect to get more mileage from Gray than from Phil Hughes (21.8% K% last season), and Hughes is available 100 picks later.
Josh Harrison, 3B, PIT (NFBC ADP: 90.20) -- Keep in mind that Harrison only played 17 games at second base last season, so he'll be eligible only at third base and in the outfield in many leagues. Harrison destroyed fastballs last season, but pitchers kept throwing them to him anyway.
According to Brooks Baseball, Harrison hit .380 with a .645 slugging percentage with six of his 13 home runs against four-seamers. He also handled two-seamers capably, posting a .319 average and .500 slugging percentage in that split, along with a .396 average and .509 slugging percentage against cutters. By comparison, he showed considerably less power against sliders (.205 AVG, .330 SLG), curveballs (.277 AVG, .362 SLG), and changeups (.279 AVG, .372 SLG). In sum, only three of his home runs last season came on breaking and off-speed pitches.
Harrison also benefited from a 100-point spike in BABIP, but he didn't show anything radically different in his batted ball profile that suggests he'll continue to be an asset in the batting average department. The Pirates may help him sustain some of his rotisserie value gains with a regular spot atop their lineup, but it's easy see Harrison stumbling along with a 2015 line that looks more like the 2014 results from Coco Crisp (.246, 9 HR, 19 SB, 47 RBI, 68 R) or Austin Jackson (.256, 4 HR, 20 SB, 47 RBI, 71 R).
There are 125-150 players I prefer over Harrison at his current price.
Do you have any players you're likely avoiding because of their cost? Let me know on Twitter @DerekVanRiper.