Scott Boras gets a lot of money for Max Scherzer from the Nationals, and the Brewers trade Yovani Gallardo to the Rangers!
The Nationals and Max Scherzer have agreed to a $210 million contract, including some pretty significant deferral terms (don't worry, the Bobby Bonilla jokes have been floating through the Twitterverse for a few hours already). For more details on the financial implications of the contract, check out Dave Cameron's post at FanGraphs.
Scherzer's Projection (prior to signing):
- 17-7, 213 IP
- 244:60 K:BB
- 3.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
- 10.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Does anything change here? Maybe a slight boost in strikeout rate is on tap with the shift to the National League, but that's hardly a given. Scherzer's previous career high was an 11.1 K/9 with the Tigers in 2012. The other area of potential improvement comes from the defense behind him in Washington. After posting a career-low .269 BABIP in 2013 with the Tigers, that number snapped back to .325 (career .313) last season. Scherzer's 2014 FIP (2.91) was lower than his ERA (3.15) and is right in line with his career-best season two years ago.
Put simply, there may not be an overwhelming reason to make more than a minor tweak to the numbers above, and it's reasonable to consider Scherzer a top-five starting pitcher on draft day, which is exactly where he sat prior to landing with the Nats.
Secondary Impact
Tanner Roark -- For now, Roark would slide into the bullpen, but teams with World Series aspirations need to have more than five quality starting pitchers anyway. Perhaps Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is going all-in for 2015, and he is more comfortable with Roark in a swing role, but Roark's 3.47 FIP last season suggests that there is a very useful skill set here for a back-end starter. More likely, the deal gives Washington the flexibility to trade Jordan Zimmermann as he enters his walk year. The Nats also have A.J. Cole knocking on the door to contribute in the big leagues, while top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito may be just a year away from taking the ball every fifth day in Washington. For those drafting in March, it's too early to make any adjustments to Roark's projection. The Brewers are among the teams believed to be interested in acquiring Zimmermann.
The Brewers and Rangers hooked up for a four-player trade that sent Yovani Gallardo to Texas, while infielder Luis Sardinas, reliever Corey Knebel, and 18-year-old pitching prospect Marcos Diplan were sent back to Milwaukee.
Gallardo's Projection (prior to trade):
- 11-10, 190 IP
- 155:63 K:BB
- 3.74 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
- 6.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Since the start of the 2013 season, Gallardo has utilized a two-seam fastball more frequently to induce more grounders while pitching to contact more consistently. He's no longer seems to be a strikeout per inning pitcher -- not even close, really -- but the Rangers may benefit more from this current version of Gallardo anyway since the pre-2013 model was more susceptible to home runs. It is worth noting, however, that Gallardo is reunited with former Brewers pitching coach Mike Maddux, who served as the pitching coach in Milwaukee during Gallardo's first two big league seasons in 2007 and 2008. Gallardo's problem has always been command, which in turn makes him brutally inefficient on the mound and often unable to pitch deep into starts. Unless Maddux can tap into a new version of Gallardo that proves capable of combining his pre-2013 strikeout numbers with his more recent contact and control trends, the ERA and WHIP could slide even further from the projection (3.85-3.90 ERA, 1.34-1.36 WHIP).
Secondary Impact
With a presumably healthy Yu Darvish, Gallardo joins Derek Holland as one of three locks for the rotation to begin the season. Ross Detwiler and Colby Lewis appear to be the current favorites for the final two spots, while Matt Harrison's return from spinal fusion surgery may limit his availability during the first half of 2015, if not longer. Eventually, the Rangers will welcome Martin Perez back from Tommy John surgery, but he may not pitch until the second half depending on his progress in rehab. The addition of Gallardo ultimately pushes one of Nick Martinez or Nick Tepesch from the last spot in the rotation to begin the year.
Sardinas is a glove-first prospect that has cruised through the minor leagues despite struggling to hit much above High-A. If the Brewers are in fact looking to make a deal for Zimmermann, Sardinas could be considered a potential replacement for Jean Segura or Scooter Gennett, but he profiles as a bottom third of the order hitter, and may be ideally suited for a utility role in the long run.
Diplan, 18, has been limited to pitching in the Dominican Republic since signing with the Rangers in July of 2013 for $1.3 million. As a 16-year-old, he was 5-foot-10 and 160 pounds with a fastball that ranked among the best on the international market at that time, according to Baseball America. He's several years away from being on the radar for the Brewers, but is an intriguing lottery ticket.
Jimmy Nelson -- Unless freeing up $9 million means that the Brewers are going to make a trade for Zimmermann, or sign free agent James Shields, the trade opens up a rotation spot for Nelson. After carving up the opposition at Triple-A Nashville last season (1.46 ERA, 0.92 WHIP in 111 innings), Nelson scuffled during his 14 appearances in Milwaukee despite a 57:19 K:BB in 69.1 innings. Nelson has the talent to match Gallardo's 2015 projection, if not exceed it, and his groundball rate (48.4% with the Brewers last season) along with the ability to miss bats at a good clip enables him to profile as a potential No. 3 starter in Milwaukee. Nelson is expected to have any workload restrictions after tossing 180.1 innings between two levels in 2014, which gives him mixed league utility if he can carry ratios in the neighborhood of a 3.70-3.80 ERA with a 1.30-1.33 WHIP and a strikeout rate at or above 7.5 K/9. Most likely, Nelson will be an endgame dart or streaming option in shallow formats.
Corey Knebel -- The Brewers need late-inning bullpen help, and Knebel could immediately fill the void. He posted a 74:17 K:BB between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues, but his season ended soon after the Rangers acquired him from the Tigers in the Joakim Soria deal last summer due to a sprained UCL in his right elbow. Drafted 39th overall in the 2013 draft out of the University of Texas, Knebel has mid-90s fastball and curveball combo necessary to become an option for saves if Jonathan Broxton fails to keep the closer role. With health, Knebel is a late reserve pick in NL-only formats barring a shift in the Brewers' current bullpen pecking order.