RotoWire's NBA statistics expert Marc Roberts uses the rest-of-season projections to evaluate current and future production and suggests some moves he'd make based on the head-to-head rankings and RotoWire's recommended punting strategy of focusing the rankings on the six positive counting stats.
TRENDING UP
Damian Lillard: Through 38 games this season, Lillard is averaging a career high in each of the six positive counting fantasy categories on a per possession basis (according to basketball-reference.com):
| Season | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 8.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 25.9 |
| 2013-14 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 29.2 |
| 2014-15 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 31.5 |
That's a remarkable achievement for someone who was thought to be close to a finished product after playing four years of college basketball. Best of all, Lillard's improved production appears to be a sustainable, natural progression.
For example, his increased scoring average is due almost entirely to his improved ability to score close to the basket. Last season, Lillard made only 48.5% of his shot attempts within five feet of the basketball, ranking him 4th worst among starting point guards. This season, Lillard has improved his field goal percentage within five feet to 60.3%, ranking him as the 7th among starting point guards, per NBA.com.
Lillard has worked to get stronger, and it shows on plays like the one below where he is able to finish at the rim despite contact from a defender:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D62dv3tL-mw
Lillard is also getting fantasy owners nearly twice as many steals as he has in years past, which seems to be a function of both an improved Blazers' defensive, and individual improvements that Lillard has made to his game, which he discussed here.
These improvements, combined with his durability (Lillard has never missed a game), have Lillard checking in at number four overall in our head-to-head rest-of-season rankings below. If the Lillard owner in your league isn't valuing him as a top-5 player, it might be a good opportunity to make a trade. I'd deal anyone not named Davis, Curry, Harden, or Durant for Lillard. Considering LeBron's poor fantasy playoff schedule, I think a sharp LeBron owner would be looking to move James for a package that includes Lillard.
WORTH OWNING
Rudy Gobert: Despite averaging 18.8 rebounds and 5.0 blocks per 100 possessions last season, Gobert came into the season on very few fantasy draft boards because of his limited role on the Utah Jazz. Gobert averaged only 9.6 mpg as a rookie, and there were concerns about whether he could share the court with Derrick Favors or Enes Kanter for extended periods of play.
Despite these concerns, Gobert's role has expanded this season, and so has his game. Gobert has already played almost twice as many minutes as he did all of last season (788 vs. 434), and he is still putting up elite block (5.6 per 100 possessions) and rebounding (17.1 per 100 possessions) numbers. In addition, Gobert is providing more scoring (15.8 points per 100 possessions on 64% shooting compared to 12.1 points on 49% FG last season), and assists (2.2 assists per 100 possessions compared to 0.8 assists last season) this season.
Gobert's fantasy breakout came just over a week ago when Enes Kanter went down with an ankle injury. During the four games that Kanter sat out, Gobert averaged 9.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.3 blocks in 33 mpg. Now that Kanter has returned from injury, Gobert's minutes will likely take a hit in the short term.
Even with his uncertain minutes, I think it's unwise to let Gobert sit on your waiver wire. It seems unlikely that the Jazz will shelf a player who has improved their defensive rating by 11 points per 100 possessions, and who leads the league in opponent field goal percentage for long. I'd look to add Gobert now with the hope that returns to the starting lineup soon. His fantasy potential is just too great.
Others to consider: Nerlens Noel (45%), Robert Covington (36%), Mario Chalmers (29%), Trey Burke (48%), DeMarre Carroll (32%), K.J. McDaniels (9%), Elfrid Payton (21%), Jarrett Jack (40%)
REST OF SEASON RANKINGS
Below are rankings and auction values based on RotoWire Projections for the rest of the regular season. These rankings and auction values are intended for head-to-head leagues where RotoWire recommends focusing on the six positive counting categories (pts, rebs, asts, stls, blks, three-pointers), even if that strategy makes your team non-competitive in the other three categories. For custom rankings you can go here.
| Rank | Auction | Player | Last Update | ESPN Ownership% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $58 | Stephen Curry | 1 | 100% |
| 2 | $51 | James Harden | 4 | 100% |
| 3 | $50 | Anthony Davis | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | $44 | Damian Lillard | 10 | 100% |
| 5 | $44 | LeBron James | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | $43 | Kevin Durant | 5 | 100% |
| 7 | $43 | John Wall | 7 | 100% |
| 8 | $42 | Chris Paul | 6 | 100% |
| 9 | $41 | DeMarcus Cousins | 15 | 100% |
| 10 | $39 | Blake Griffin | 13 | 100% |
| 11 | $39 | Michael Carter-Williams | 9 | 88% |
| 12 | $38 | Paul Millsap | 11 | 98% |
| 13 | $37 | Kyle Lowry | 21 | 99% |
| 14 | $37 | Russell Westbrook | 8 | 100% |
| 15 | $34 | Andre Drummond | 18 | 98% |
| 16 | $34 | Kemba Walker | 12 | 95% |
| 17 | $33 | Kevin Love | 14 | 100% |
| 18 | $33 | Klay Thompson | 16 | 99% |
| 19 | $33 | Jrue Holiday | 22 | 90% |
| 20 | $32 | DeAndre Jordan | 19 | 97% |
| 21 | $31 | Draymond Green | 32 | 81% |
| 22 | $31 | Ty Lawson | 20 | 97% |
| 23 | $30 | Marc Gasol | 23 | 99% |
| 24 | $30 | Rudy Gay | 26 | 99% |
| 25 | $30 | Kyrie Irving | 17 | 100% |
| 26 | $30 | Serge Ibaka | 40 | 99% |
| 27 | $29 | Jeff Teague | 36 | 91% |
| 28 | $28 | Gorgui Dieng | 81 | 59% |
| 29 | $28 | Mike Conley | 30 | 95% |
| 30 | $28 | LaMarcus Aldridge | 33 | 100% |
| 31 | $28 | Tim Duncan | 34 | 96% |
| 32 | $27 | Gordon Hayward | 27 | 96% |
| 33 | $27 | Chris Bosh | 28 | 99% |
| 34 | $27 | Dwight Howard | 24 | 99% |
| 35 | $26 | Wesley Matthews | 43 | 87% |
| 36 | $26 | Monta Ellis | 39 | 99% |
| 37 | $26 | Trevor Ariza | 29 | 81% |
| 38 | $26 | Darren Collison | 45 | 80% |
| 39 | $25 | Nicolas Batum | 38 | 85% |
| 40 | $25 | Victor Oladipo | 42 | 81% |
| 41 | $25 | Derrick Favors | 47 | 92% |
| 42 | $24 | Ricky Rubio | 91 | 58% |
| 43 | $23 | Rajon Rondo | 35 | 96% |
| 44 | $23 | Danny Green | 55 | 67% |
| 45 | $22 | Jimmy Butler | 53 | 94% |
| 46 | $22 | Kobe Bryant | 31 | 99% |
| 47 | $22 | Carmelo Anthony | 37 | 99% |
| 48 | $22 | Goran Dragic | 51 | 93% |
| 49 | $21 | Nerlens Noel | 60 | 45% |
| 50 | $21 | Tyreke Evans | 52 | 86% |
| 51 | $21 | Robert Covington | 93 | 36% |
| 52 | $21 | Eric Bledsoe | 57 | 96% |
| 53 | $19 | Brandon Jennings | 48 | 79% |
| 54 | $19 | Chandler Parsons | 50 | 93% |
| 55 | $19 | Thaddeus Young | 54 | 78% |
| 56 | $19 | Brandon Knight | 61 | 88% |
| 57 | $18 | Joe Johnson | 69 | 89% |
| 58 | $18 | Mario Chalmers | 76 | 29% |
| 59 | $18 | Kyle Korver | 70 | 81% |
| 60 | $17 | Bradley Beal | 68 | 83% |
| 61 | $16 | Joakim Noah | 65 | 95% |
| 62 | $16 | Josh Smith | 41 | 81% |
| 63 | $16 | Markieff Morris | 49 | 78% |
| 64 | $16 | Dirk Nowitzki | 64 | 99% |
| 65 | $16 | Kenneth Faried | 72 | 89% |
| 66 | $16 | Kawhi Leonard | 46 | 94% |
| 67 | $16 | Mason Plumlee | Unranked | 51% |
| 68 | $15 | Andrew Wiggins | 82 | 79% |
| 69 | $15 | Greg Monroe | 66 | 87% |
| 70 | $15 | Al Horford | 74 | 95% |
| 71 | $15 | Pau Gasol | 63 | 97% |
| 72 | $14 | Al Jefferson | 44 | 93% |
| 73 | $14 | Nikola Vucevic | 58 | 97% |
| 74 | $14 | Rudy Gobert | 150 | 28% |
| 75 | $14 | Dwyane Wade | 85 | 97% |
| 76 | $14 | Trey Burke | 71 | 48% |
| 77 | $13 | DeMarre Carroll | 83 | 32% |
| 78 | $13 | K.J. McDaniels | 75 | 9% |
| 79 | $12 | Jared Sullinger | 73 | 78% |
| 80 | $12 | Terrence Ross | 96 | 36% |
| 81 | $12 | Ryan Anderson | 79 | 75% |
| 82 | $11 | Marcin Gortat | 80 | 85% |
| 83 | $11 | Zach Randolph | 84 | 93% |
| 84 | $11 | DeMar DeRozan | 114 | 89% |
| 85 | $11 | Jae Crowder | Unranked | 1% |
| 86 | $10 | Tobias Harris | 89 | 87% |
| 87 | $10 | Tyson Chandler | 86 | 86% |
| 88 | $10 | Paul Pierce | 78 | 53% |
| 89 | $9 | Roy Hibbert | 59 | 74% |
| 90 | $9 | Luol Deng | 109 | 79% |
| 91 | $8 | Jamal Crawford | 77 | 81% |
| 92 | $8 | Kelly Olynyk | 132 | 28% |
| 93 | $8 | Marcus Smart | 142 | 6% |
| 94 | $8 | Elfrid Payton | 133 | 21% |
| 95 | $8 | J.J. Redick | 106 | 61% |
| 96 | $8 | Courtney Lee | 101 | 17% |
| 97 | $8 | Tony Wroten | 103 | 69% |
| 98 | $7 | Jose Calderon | 117 | 29% |
| 99 | $7 | Jarrett Jack | 146 | 40% |
| 100 | $7 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 113 | 67% |
| 101 | $7 | David West | 102 | 73% |
| 102 | $7 | Ben McLemore | 104 | 14% |
| 103 | $6 | Isaiah Thomas | 122 | 71% |
| 104 | $6 | Mirza Teletovic | 111 | 9% |
| 105 | $6 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 98 | 10% |
| 106 | $6 | Amir Johnson | 119 | 23% |
| 107 | $6 | Derrick Rose | 105 | 96% |
| 108 | $5 | Lance Stephenson | 67 | 51% |
| 109 | $5 | Jusuf Nurkic | Unranked | 19% |
| 110 | $5 | Arron Afflalo | 134 | 67% |
| 111 | $5 | Patrick Beverley | 112 | 45% |
| 112 | $5 | Timofey Mozgov | 92 | 22% |
| 113 | $4 | Solomon Hill | 130 | 7% |
| 114 | $4 | Wilson Chandler | 115 | 62% |
| 115 | $4 | Jonas Valanciunas | 97 | 76% |
| 116 | $4 | Ed Davis | 135 | 18% |
| 117 | $4 | Channing Frye | 62 | 7% |
| 118 | $3 | Eric Gordon | 176 | 16% |
| 119 | $3 | Kevin Martin | 183 | 53% |
| 120 | $3 | Robin Lopez | 95 | 23% |
| 121 | $3 | Harrison Barnes | 131 | 32% |
| 122 | $3 | Manu Ginobili | 121 | 45% |
| 123 | $3 | Andrew Bogut | 129 | 38% |
| 124 | $3 | Jordan Hill | 100 | 63% |
| 125 | $3 | Reggie Jackson | 94 | 64% |
| 126 | $3 | Omer Asik | 108 | 35% |
| 127 | $2 | Taj Gibson | 116 | 58% |
| 128 | $2 | Corey Brewer | 145 | 19% |
| 129 | $2 | George Hill | 149 | 37% |
| 130 | $2 | P.J. Tucker | 128 | 5% |
| 131 | $2 | Evan Turner | Unranked | 14% |
| 132 | $2 | Steven Adams | 154 | 10% |
| 133 | $2 | Dante Exum | 191 | 2% |
| 134 | $2 | Jeremy Lin | 144 | 33% |
| 135 | $2 | Tony Parker | 107 | 84% |
| 136 | $1 | Enes Kanter | 88 | 32% |
| 137 | $1 | James Johnson | 168 | 4% |
| 138 | $1 | Tristan Thompson | 153 | 46% |
| 139 | $1 | Andre Iguodala | 127 | 20% |
| 140 | $1 | Tony Allen | 110 | 6% |
| 141 | $1 | Khris Middleton | 175 | 14% |
| 142 | $1 | Cody Zeller | 118 | 6% |
| 143 | $1 | C.J. Miles | 198 | 15% |
| 144 | $1 | Patrick Patterson | 148 | 7% |
| 145 | $1 | Matt Barnes | 140 | 5% |
| 146 | $1 | Donatas Motiejunas | 152 | 13% |
| 147 | $1 | Deron Williams | 25 | 76% |
| 148 | $1 | Boris Diaw | 136 | 9% |
| 149 | $1 | Shabazz Muhammad | Unranked | 52% |
| 150 | $1 | Evan Fournier | 141 | 21% |
| 151 | $1 | Greivis Vasquez | 156 | 5% |
| 152 | $1 | Gerald Green | 124 | 46% |
| 153 | $1 | O.J. Mayo | 143 | 10% |
| 154 | $1 | Ronnie Price | 163 | 1% |
| 155 | $1 | Tim Hardaway | 197 | 0% |
| 156 | $1 | Marcus Morris | 147 | 5% |
| 157 | $- | Norris Cole | 180 | 2% |
| 158 | $- | Avery Bradley | 157 | 28% |
| 159 | $- | Jodie Meeks | 182 | 21% |
| 160 | $- | Dion Waiters | 167 | 11% |
| 161 | $- | Tyler Zeller | 173 | 16% |
| 162 | $- | Mike Dunleavy | 125 | 6% |
| 163 | $- | Carlos Boozer | 165 | 49% |
| 164 | $- | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 188 | 25% |
| 165 | $- | Tiago Splitter | 190 | 3% |
| 166 | $- | J.R. Smith | 137 | 28% |
| 167 | $- | John Henson | Unranked | 6% |
| 168 | $- | Louis Williams | 187 | 43% |
| 169 | $- | J.J. Hickson | Unranked | 6% |
| 170 | $- | Iman Shumpert | 199 | 7% |
| 171 | $- | Nene Hilario | 155 | 22% |
| 172 | $- | Spencer Hawes | 186 | 4% |
| 173 | $- | Jared Dudley | Unranked | 8% |
| 174 | $- | Marvin Williams | 184 | 3% |
| 175 | $- | Shawne Williams | Unranked | 2% |
| 176 | $- | Rodney Stuckey | 172 | 10% |
| 177 | $- | Nick Young | 185 | 50% |
| 178 | $- | D.J. Augustin | Unranked | 4% |
| 179 | $- | Kirk Hinrich | 181 | 2% |
| 180 | $- | Kyle O'Quinn | Unranked | 2% |
| 181 | $- | Brook Lopez | 123 | 83% |
| 182 | $- | Marco Belinelli | Unranked | 3% |
| 183 | $- | Alan Anderson | Unranked | 0% |
| 184 | $- | Vince Carter | Unranked | 2% |
| 185 | $- | Hollis Thompson | 166 | 0% |
| 186 | $- | Larry Sanders | 138 | 15% |
| 187 | $- | Jason Smith | Unranked | 1% |
| 188 | $- | Jonas Jerebko | Unranked | 1% |
| 189 | $- | Henry Sims | 178 | 4% |
| 190 | $- | Amar'e Stoudemire | 159 | 29% |
| 191 | $- | Luis Scola | 177 | 6% |
| 192 | $- | Marreese Speights | Unranked | 24% |
| 193 | $- | Steve Blake | 195 | 1% |
| 194 | $- | Miles Plumlee | 139 | 4% |
| 195 | $- | Rasual Butler | 174 | 3% |
| 196 | $- | Cole Aldrich | Unranked | 13% |
| 197 | $- | Jerryd Bayless | Unranked | 1% |
| 198 | $- | Jason Terry | Unranked | 1% |
| 199 | $- | Nikola Mirotic | Unranked | 8% |
| 200 | $- | Aaron Brooks | Unranked | 6% |