Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Seattle Seahawks.
The system/scheme
• The Seahawks were so enamored with the run last year, that Russell Wilson had weeks where he threw the football 20 times, and since Seattle was winning games, they had no reason to change their philosophy. They were so stubborn, that they didn't change it during a playoff loss to Dallas in a game they easily could've won. And with Brian Shottenheimer as their OC, don't expect the formula to change unless they absolutely have to. The rushing attack is so heavy that they should support two fantasy RBs, but the passing numbers will likely be sporadic.
Metrics
• Chris Carson is a beast, and he needs to be because he has 13th-percentile agility. He's all about getting a head of steam and running people over. With 61st-percentile speed and 88th-percentile explosiveness while being a 77th-percentile SPARQ athlete, he should retain the early-down and goal line work again this year, but he'll definitely be in a committee with Rashaad Penny, making for a great thunder and lightning duo.
• Rashaad Penny is blazing fast (93rd-percentile speed score) and once he gets a crease into space, he's a legit playmaker. His other metrics are below average, so understand that good coaching will focus on getting him into space so he can turn on the jets.
• David Moore profiles as a deep threat with 89th-percentile speed and 67th-percentile explosiveness but only 34th-percentile agility.
• D.K. Metcalf won't likely see big target share due to run-heavy attack, other WRs on the team, and potential lack of chemistry with Russell Wilson, but he could be a big play threat as the likely 'X'. He's looking like a lethal deep threat with 99th-percentile speed, 97th-percentile explosiveness and a 92nd-percentile catch radius, and he's also a 99th percentile SPARQ athlete. The knock on in is that he's raw and an unrefined route runner who may take some time to learn how to play at the next level.
Positive Spin
• The Seattle defense is so bad that teams score quickly on them every week, forcing them to abandon the rushing attack and putting the football in Russell Wilson's hands. Once that happens, the combination of weapons in both the running and receiving game are lethal, and Wilson returns to being an elite fantasy option while spiking the fantasy value of his teammates.
Negative Spin
• Either the defense is good enough to keep them in games, or the offense has to run the ball all day just to keep the defense off the field. Either way, Carson and Penny get enough volume to be weekly fantasy options, but aside from Tyler Lockett, the other passing-game weapons aren't consistent enough to help fantasy teams.
My advice-
• Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the league. However, since the team chose to commit to the run last year, and that's the plan again this year, he'll need to repeat his amazing efficiency to remain a weekly fantasy starter. He threw a ridiculously-low 427 passes last year (he averaged 550 in 2016 and 2017), but somehow threw 35 TD passes (eight percent TD rate- which is completely unsustainable). It also helped that he ran for 355 yards (he's had at least 242 in six-straight years. At his ADP, I have to pass because he can't repeat that TD rate and there's too much of a chance he'll throw just 500 passes.
• Chris Carson definitely will be in a committee with Rashaad Penny, making for a great thunder and lightning duo. Facing one of the league's easiest schedules against the run, he should be a RB2 again, but this year his ADP of 60 isn't nearly the value it was in 2018. And with his violent running style, he easily could get injured. If I really need a RB at the point in the draft near his ADP, I wouldn't avoid him, but I'm not aggressively targeting him.
• Rashaad Penny will benefit from a healthy offseason and the fact that Mike Davis is no longer in the picture. Chris Carson likely does much of the heavy lifting, but that shouldn't stop Penny from seeing double-digit carries and plenty of work on passing downs. However, his ADP seems to be taking into account that he'll see double-digit touches, so he may need to earn an even bigger role to earn his draft value. The one possibility to consider is that with Carson's violent running style, Penny could emerge as a lead back, and that would allow him to crush his ADP.
• Tyler Lockett should see more work in the slot with Doug Baldwin now retired, and he has Wilson's trust, so despite low-volume passing attack, should be a strong WR2 who has a current ADP of 68, in which case he'd be an excellent value. Sure, his efficiency of scoring 10 TDs and posting 965 yards on just 70 targets is unlikely to be repeated, but it would be almost a shock if he didn't get more looks, even from an offense that may throw around 500 passes on the season.
• David Moore had a couple of big games, but the low volume makes him hard to trust in redraft leagues, and if D.K. Metcalf picks things up quickly, he'll lower his ceiling even more. However, if Metcalf struggles to find his way as a pro, Moore's value goes way up. I still can't bank on a secondary WR on a potentially run-heavy team.
• The knock on D.K. Metcalf is that he's a raw and an unrefined route runner who may take some time to learn how to play at the next level. Should he learn quickly, he could be a spike-week type of player, even though the Seahawks throw at one of the lowest rates in the league. His ADP suggests the fantasy community is somewhat buying into him this year, but between the potential for low pass volume and him possibly needing time to learn, I'll fade him this year, but if you feel he'll dominate from day one- he's an athletic marvel.
• I have no interest in any of the team's TEs- there just won't likely be enough passes to go around for them.