Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the San Francisco 49ers.
The system/scheme
• Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. Even with backups all over the field, and at times, a third-string QB, the 49ers were able to move the football with some consistency. This offense will utilize speed and play design to put stress on defenses both vertically and horizontally, and there's yet to be a defensive plan that's been able to slow down Shanahan's offense when it's running with talented players. Look for the offense to have balance, but certainly slanted toward the pass, and the personnel on the team has loads of speed at every single position. Don't be surprised if this team has a top-10 offense in 2019.
Metrics
• Matt Breida wasn't a fluke last year- he ran a 93rd-percentile 40-yard dash with 99th-percentile explosiveness and 75th-percentile agility- he's the real deal!
• Jerick McKinnon is an amazing athlete (he averages the 95th-percentile in all major measurables while being a 100th-percentile SPARQ athlete- which is crazy for a RB- it's usually the TEs who post those numbers. Kyle Shanahan coveted him last year, but after signing the FA, McKinnon tore his ACL and missed the entire season.
• Dante Pettis is certainly not a burner, as he ran a 57th-percentile 40-yard-dash, but he has 65th-percentile explosiveness, so although he may not be a dominant player, he should continue to do well by being tethered to Kyle Shanahan.
• Deebo Samuel looks like he can be a pretty well-rounded player. It starts with 80th-percentile speed and 82nd-percentile explosiveness, and then he adds 57th-percentile agility- he doesn't sound like an ideal slot WR, but as an outside WR, he has an impressive athletic profile.
• Marquise Goodwin has Olympian speed with 95th percentile burst and 95th percentile agility, and he could be used as a big weapon in an offense that places a premium on speed.
• George Kittle has 100th-percentile agility, 95th-percentile speed and catch radius, and he has 89th-percentile SPARQ and explosiveness scores, so anyone who thought his 2018 breakout was a fluke may want to rethink that stance.
Positive Spin
• Jimmy Garoppolo is able to successfully run the offense while each of the skill position players continue to grow from where they were at last year (there are quite a few young players on this offense). They use their elite speed to punish defenses from the opening whistle by taking vertical shots down the field, and defenses have no answer for them. Their RBs are also used as runners and receivers, and the offense produces strong fantasy options at each position.
Negative Spin
• Garoppolo lacks chemistry with his WRs, and the RBs continue to deal with injuries and fail to get any type of rhythm going out of the backfield. Garoppolo also fails to have chemistry with Kittle, which ultimately neutralizes his best weapon. The offense has a number of good weeks, but their lack of consistency frustrates fantasy owners.
My advice-
• Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't played enough for us to really know how good of a QB he'll be, but he'll benefit from Kyle Shanahan running the offense, which had great success even with backup players. Look for a downfield passing attack, highlighted by insane team speed and a trio of RBs who can catch the ball and make plays as well. Jimmy G won't give you anything as a runner, but in this proven offensive system, there's no reason he shouldn't be a QB1. He's being drafted around pick 110, and he's in play as a fantasy option once the top-10 QBs have been selected.
• Matt Breida was an excellent RB last season, but injuries kept his touches very limited, and as a result, he'll likely see a partial workload again this year, especially since the team also has Jerick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman on the depth chart. Facing what appears to be one of the league's easiest schedules against the run will help, but the likely lack of touches will make him tricky to start in weekly lineups. His ADP of 145 is just about right, but the only issue is actually having the confidence to put him in those weekly lineups. That's ultimately while I won't draft him at ADP.
• Jerick McKinnon- (This section is based on him returning to practice no later than the third preseason game.) Kyle Shanahan coveted him last year, but after signing the FA, McKinnon tore his ACL. With a full year to recover, Shanahan has his new toy, but in his absence, Matt Breida broke out, and the team signed Tevin Coleman to make sure they were covered at RB. I'd like to tell you that I have a crystal ball and know how this backfield will shake out- I don't. But an athlete who can play at this level with the advanced play-calling of this coach is a player worth betting on. More importantly, the 49ers have one of the easiest schedules in the league against the run, so the situation couldn't be better. Even though most analysts expect him to be a committee back, he could seize control of this job and never look back because he's so athletically superior to Coleman and Breida. I won't hesitate to take him at his ADP, and likely a round earlier.
• Tevin Coleman has the highest ADP in the 49ers' backfield, but I'm not buying. Although he wasn't a great player with the Falcons, he posted right around 1,000 all-purpose yards and 8.5 TDs over the last two seasons. He does have blazing speed (92nd-percentile 40 time), but he's never been a really elusive guy, so he's best when he has defined creases. Although he knows Kyle Shanahan's system well, he didn't have his best years until Shanahan was gone. He could take the lead in this backfield, but honestly, Matt Breida has better measurables and Jerick McKinnon is a freak, so he easily could be simply a depth player. I won't be investing in him, as I believe he's #3 in the pecking order in this backfield.
• Dante Pettis, for the long-term, doesn't profile as a WR1 for an NFL team, but for this year, he's expected to be the 'X' WR, which can be extremely productive. Playing with backup QBs when becoming a starter in Week 10, for a total of 6 starts, he scored 4 TDs and had at least 77 yards in half of those games, and over his last 5 starts, he only posted fewer than 49 yards once. Obviously, this was a small sample size and defenses didn't likely have a 'book' out on him, but it was solid production nonetheless. He's looking like a draft value, especially if he's available roughly 80 picks into drafts.
• Deebo Samuel was the 49ers second-round pick this year and they likely expect him to immediately contribute as an outside WR, but it's possible Marquise Goodwin gets in his way, which is a real concern. Samuel could be one of the steals of the draft with an ADP near 200, but to do that, he'd need to beat out Goodwin, who had a lost year in 2018, but Goodwin was playing great in the second half of 2017. Goodwin crushes Samuel in the athleticism department, so Samuel will need to beat him out in camp, and then he'd need to command enough of the target share to be a consistent fantasy performer. I expect him to spilt time this year, so I'm fading him, but I like him in dynasty leagues.
• Marquise Goodwin caught less than 54% of his targets in each of his last two years. He could push for a starting job since the 49ers have a pair of rookies on the squad. Let's not dismiss the fact of how he played in 2017 when he had nine games with at least 60 yds, and after Jimmy Garoppolo came in down the stretch, he had at least 78 yards in five-straight games, including three-straight with at least 99 yards. He missed time last year and never had things get into a groove, and it's not like Garoppolo was around to gain chemistry with other receivers. Of course, he'll have to be more reliable with his hands to realize his fantasy value. I would pounce on him if he's available after roughly 130 picks have gone off the board.
• George Kittle is being projected by many analysts to take a small step back after having the most yards after the catch in a season (ever) for any player (including WRs). That may be lazy analysis. There is no TE more physically gifted than Kittle, and now he's shown that he can produce on the field. And don't think Kyle Shanahan won't feature a rare target like Kittle, who this year will actually have a real QB along with an improved cast of WRs who can keep heavy coverage off of him. His ADP is crazy-high, though, and owners have to be willing to pass up on RBs or WRs in the second round to get him, but it may be hard to argue with anyone who takes him there.