Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Oakland Raiders.
The system/scheme
• Jon Gruden loves to have his teams throw the football, and after a lost season in 2018, he's set up Derek Carr with a new set of primary offensive weapons. Since Carr isn't the most-reliable deep passer, I'd expect the coach to design plays that allow the QB to get rid of the ball quickly, allowing the receivers to do most of their damage after the catch, which also should help negate the opposing pass rush. This should be a pass-first offense that runs when it needs to, but not much more.
Metrics
• Tyrell Williams has an 82nd-percentile speed score, 90th-percentile burst, 85th-percentile explosiveness and 98th percentile agility, so he could be used more on slants and crossers, which would allow him to use his athleticism to make big plays. His profile shows that he's much more than a deep threat.
• Ryan Grant is as slow as molasses (17th-percentile speed score), but he has 44th-percentile explosiveness and 93rd-percentile agility, so he profiles as a strong slot WR. If he can win a starting job in camp and develops some chemistry with Carr, he could emerge as a depth option for fantasy managers.
• Darren Waller is a converted WR, who's going into his fourth season. He's been on IR twice and served a pair of suspensions for PEDs, so we haven't seen much of him, but at 6'6", 255 pounds while possessing 99th-percentile speed, 89th-percentile explosiveness and 81st-percentile agility, a breakout season is in his range of outcomes.
Positive Spin
• With three new WRs, a rookie RB and a TE who's barely played, Gruden is able to scheme an offense that is simplistic enough to focus on the strength of each player. In addition, the defense doesn't gel despite an influx of new players, and the offense is forced to regularly play in shootouts. As a result, they finish the season with a top-10 offense.
Negative Spin
• Chemistry is an issue all season and defenses choose to put heavy pressure on Carr to force him to make quick reactions, which has been one of his weaknesses. Without the rapport with the WRs, he consistently misses making connections, leading to them falling behind in most games- and once they become one-dimensional, there's little chance to recover.
My advice-
• Derek Carr could have a much-improved OL this year and he also has a significant upgrade at the WR position. Although the Raiders will face a very tough schedule against the pass, they'll likely trail frequently, and he'll be forced to throw the ball often, which is good for his fantasy prospects. He should be seen as a QB2 and his ADP of 132 is in line with that, and he also could be a great streaming option.
• Josh Jacobs- He has a great frame for workhorse back, but there's nothing special about athletic profile- actually, his metrics have me concerned that unless he gets a boatload of volume, he won't be a very effective runner. Oakland spent first-round draft capital on him, and he'll almost certainly get lead back work, but he could lose some passing-down snaps to Jalen Richard. The biggest question that fantasy managers are faced with is will his potential volume be too significant to fade him. If he fell to the third round of drafts and I needed a RB, I'd be willing to gamble on him getting the needed volume to be a strong RB2.
• Antonio Brown will now catch passes from Derek Carr instead of Ben Roethlsiberger, which is a clear downgrade. However, with little competition for targets and playing on a team that projects to trail most weeks, it's tough to imagine that Brown won't get the volume needed to be a WR1 for the eighth-straight year. That said, he may catch far more short passes than he did in Pittsburgh, so his yardage and TD totals could take a significant hit. The fact he's being taken with an ADP near 20, that seems to take in consideration the fact that he's unlikely to be the overall WR1, so as long as he's not being drafted too early, he should continue to be a strong building block for fantasy rosters.
• Tyrell Williams has all the tools to be a versatile receiver with terrific upside. But WRs, especially ones who aren't stars, don't typically do well when switching teams, though the entire WR corps in Oakland is new, and with a pass-minded coach like John Gruden, Williams could be one of the sneakiest players to draft this year, and he has an ADP of 167. I don't think it's out of the question that his ability, along with volume, end up turning him into a WR2.
• Ryan Grant has been in the league for five years, and his best season was with Washington in 2017, when he posted 45/573/4. In his first year with the Raiders, who have Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, it's tough to imagine he'll outplay his 2017 season, especially since he's acclimating to a new team and isn't likely to command a high volume of targets.
• Darren Waller has just 18/178/2 as his career stat line, so betting on a TE1 season seems ambitious, especially since the Raiders now have a strong set of WRs. With his ADP being 269, if you're in a league in which it's feasible to roster 3 TEs to see if lightning can be caught, take a flier on him- otherwise, keep an eye on him early in the season as a possible waiver add.