Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the New York Jets.
The system/scheme
• Do we really know much about Adam Gase? When he had Payton Manning at QB, we saw one of the most explosive offenses in history, and then when he went to the Dolphins with Ryan Tannehill as his QB, the offense was predictably terrible. Although I'll break down the players, I don't feel comfortable making an uneducated guess as to what we'll see from the Jets on offense.
Metrics
• Robby Anderson seems to be pretty much a one-trick pony- a 190-pound string bean who is fast- he runs a 92nd-percentile 40-yd-dash with 76th-percentile explosiveness, but he only has 36th- percentile agility, so he doesn't profile as a diverse WR, just a deep threat.
• Quincy Enunwa is big 6'2", 225 pounds, and really fast (97th-percentile speed score), but he didn't test in other areas at the Combine, so no other metrics are available. That said, he has great power and run after the catch ability, but injuries have kept him off the field throughout his career.
• Jamison Crowder has 11th-percentile speed and 21st-percentile agility along with less than average scores in his other measurables, so his career production may have been due to his familiarity with Jay Gruden's scheme while being a reliable safety valve compiler.
Positive Spin
• Sam Darnold makes a second-year jump in performance, which has been somewhat common for QBs who were high draft picks and clearly not busts. While the QB is improved, having a dual-threat RB in Le'Veon Bell gives Darnold a dump-off option to avoid pressure, and if Enunwa and Anderson can stay healthy, he'll have an excellent pair of WRs with different strengths. Overall, this allows the Jets to be an offense in the top half of the league.
Negative Spin
• Darnold fails to make improvements in his development while the OL has trouble opening holes for Bell and the rushing attack. This leads to the Jets being in too many unfavorable situations, which in turn, allows defenses to bring extra pressure and keep the offense off schedule. Regardless, even if this is a below-average offense, it shouldn't be one of the bottom dwellers.
My advice-
• Last year, from Week 14 on, Darnold would've been the QB4 if those numbers were pro-rated for a full season. It looks like fantasy owners aren't too sold on his strong finish, as he has an ADP of 126, so he won't come at a discount, as he's likely to finish no better than (roughly) QB12, as the Jets don't seem to be an offense that will be too pass happy. Those who believe that he can completely break out this year, should take him at his ADP.
• The biggest question about Le'Veon Bell was how much of his fantasy brilliance was due to the Pittsburgh OL and offensive system- James Conner stepped right in and posted fantastic numbers. Now, Bell goes to a below average OL in NY, where his starting and stopping running style could result in a ton of lost yards. All said, he's an elite pass catcher who should play on all three downs, and as we know, volume is king in fantasy football, so Bell is a locked in RB1 who should be selected in the back half of the first round in all fantasy leagues.
• Robby Anderson regressed from his breakout rookie season, but when Sam Darnold got hot in Weeks 14 on, Anderson was a WR1 for that stretch, though it should be noted that the Jets did have a cupcake schedule during those weeks. It does help that his ADP is 87, so he does add value to teams that need WRs at that point of drafts. But he also could take a production hit, now that the WR depth chart in NY is much better than it's been with the addition of Jamison Crowder and a healthy (for now) Quincy Enunwa.
• Jamison Crowder averaged 101/825/5 in 2016 and 2017 as a reliable and productive slot WR for Washington. Going into his age-26 season, he's squarely in his prime, but going to a new team rarely goes well for any player who's not an elite talent. Also, the Jets have more weapons than Washington did, so don't look for Crowder to be forced a bunch of targets. With an ADP after pick 200, he could be a decent WR6 in PPR leagues only.
• Chris Herndon will start the season with a four-game suspension, but that may allow fantasy owners who have the luxury of drafting a second TE to be able to use him upon his return. Of course, much of his 39/502/4 could have been due to the lack of WRs on the team (injuries really piled up there last year), so he could see a reduction in work due to the potential of better WR health in 2019. Regardless, he did show he can play at the NFL level by reaching at least 50 yards in 5 of his last 11 games.