Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Miami Dolphins.
The system/scheme
• We really know nothing about the new OC, Chad O'Shea, except he was a WRs coach with the Patriots who was brought over by new HC Brian Flores, as the duo worked together with the Patriots. It's fairly useless to make any speculation as to what the offense will look like, but the one thing we might be able to assume is that the defense will be a work in progress, so they should be playing from behind with some frequency, so they'll probably need to throw the ball often.
Metrics
• Kenyan Drake has both a speed score and 40 time in the 86th-92nd percentile while having above average explosiveness (59th-percentile) and agility (66th-percentile), so he's a very fast RB who has more than enough shiftiness to make his share of big plays.
• Kalen Ballage is faster than Drake (97th-percentile speed) while being slightly-less explosive 47th-percentile along with fairly-equal agility (64th-percentile). He's a big RB at 6'2", 228 pounds.
• Davante Parker has 90th-percentile speed and 70th-percentile explosiveness to go with a 6'3", 209-pound frame
• Albert Wilson has an 87th-percentile 40-yd-dash time, 73rd-percentile explosiveness along with 53rd-percentile agility, which doesn't seem to translate into elite slot play- his numbers indicate he'd be better suited to an outside WR role.
• Kenny Stills has a 96th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, and he's been an excellent deep threat, but his below average explosiveness and agility pretty much make him a one-trick pony.
• Mike Gesicki has a 95th-percentile speed score with 99th-percentile in explosiveness, agility and catch radius, and he's a 97th percentile SPARQ athlete. He's one of the most physically gifted TEs in the league, but it often takes a young TE three years to develop.
Positive Spin
• The defense is bad, as expected, and Ryan Fitzpatrick keeps the starting QB job- as a result, all of the Dolphins' weapons are unlocked. Kenyan Drake works as a lethal receiving weapon out of the backfield while DeVante Parker finally is allowed to be a regular part of the offense. In addition, Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills benefit from favorable coverage and Miami regularly plays in shootouts.
Negative Spin
• The team needs to see what they have for the future and they pull Fitzpatrick from the lineup for Josh Rosen, and the entire offense goes into the dumps.
My advice-
(It's important to understand that at any point that Rosen takes over at QB, any hope for this offense may be gone. That's he reason why owners can't load up too heavily on Dolphins, with the exception of possibly Drake. The good news is that most of these guys can be drafted as backups and possibly used as starters as long as Fitz is under center.)
• A very late pick being used on Ryan Fitzpatrick is fine, but since most will be using him as a backup, the case for selecting someone else is that he probably doesn't finish the season as the starter because the team needs to see Rosen.
• Even though Drake and Ballage have very similar metrics, Drake projects to be the primary receiving back since he's almost 15 pounds lighter than Ballage, but with the Dolphins likely trailing often, Drake should be plenty busy. As long as the preseason buzz created by Ballage knocks down Drake's ADP a round or two, Drake will be a decent value pick as a RB3/flex with RB2 upside.
• Before he took first-team reps in training camp, Ballage was going as RB62, and even if he goes up to RB50, he'll could be a good value if he can seize the early-down role. He's a much bigger back than Drake, so that may be why the coaching staff prefers Ballage as the primary RB. With an ADP of WR64, you're unlikely to find a player with his size/measuarables profile- and it's not like you're using big draft capital to acquire him. I'll be open to drafting him near his ADP.
• Kenny Stills finally has a gunslinger at QB- sure, the big-play nature of his game will always be boom-or-bust, but with Fitz he may have more boom than usual. However, he typically goes about the same place in drafts as DeVante Parker, so you may need to choose one or the other, but Stills is a great best-ball pick.
• Albert Wilson profiles more as an outside WR than a slot, so unless there's an injury or WR benching, I'll likely fade him.
• Mike Gesicki is properly being drafted outside the top-20 TEs, and at that point, he's worth a flier in the case that he has a year-two breakout. He's more likely to break out in 2020, but with such a low draft cost, why not see what happens?