Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Houston Texans.
The system/scheme
• The 2018 play-calling was bad- the Texans were way too run heavy, but because they were winning games, it worked for them. They'll need to turn into a passing team this year, especially with the schedule looking more challenging. And since their rushing attack is uninspiring, even the hard-headed Bill O'Brien might be willing to turn the offense over the DeShaun Watson.
Metrics
• Will Fuller's entire game is speed- he has a 99th-percentile 40-yard-dash time. Otherwise, he has average explosion and agility, but he's already proven to be an elite performer at the NFL level, so his measurables really mean little unless the ACL injury takes something away from straight-line speed (it usually doesn't).
• Keke Coutee had a few big games, including the playoff loss to the Colts, and he has two measurables that indicate he may be here to stay as a strong presence in the slot- not only did he run an 87th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, but his agility is in the 67th-percentile.
• D'Onta Foreman came into the league with a 95th percentile speed score, which for a 233-pound back, was quite impressive. Otherwise, he has 37th percentile explosion and 41st percentile agility, which for a back his size, could allow him to profile as a good lead back.
• After Ryan Griffin was cut, Jordan Thomas should become the starter and he'll be a possible breakout candidate- he stands 6'6" and 265 pounds while possessing 82nd percentile speed. Those numbers make him an imposing presence in the red zone, but he also projects to be a potential seam-stretcher.
Positive Spin
• After facing one of the easiest schedules in the league last year, this year's slate looks extremely difficult, but that's a good thing- if the Texans can't dominate inferior opponents each week, they will have to be much more aggressive on offense. As a result, this could be one of the more explosive offenses in football- they have three very good WRs and a potential diamond at TE.
Negative Spin
• Fuller doesn't look like the same player after last year's mid-season ACL surgery, the offensive line continues to be a turnstile for opposing pass rushers, and the rushing attack doesn't provide sustained success. As a result, the offense becomes one dimensional, and defenses adjust accordingly- sure, they still move the ball, but never reach the level that their talent is capable of.
My advice-
• Since I'm not inclined to use a high draft pick on a QB, I won't have shares of DeShaun Watson in single-QB leagues, but he's definitely a player I'd pay up for in 2-QB leagues, because his floor has to be QB5 (assuming health) and he definitely could finish as the overall QB1 when his rushing ability is factored in.
• I'm avoiding Will Fuller in drafts- his ADP is more than I'm willing to pay for a player less than a year removed from ACL surgery, and he also has had a crazy-high TD rate in his career, which will be really tough to sustain.
• As much as I like Keke Coutee, he's still the third-wheel in the Texans' passing attack and I'm not convinced they'll use 11 personnel enough to get him the amount of snaps he'll need to be a consistent lineup option.
• Jordan Thomas will make a really nice late pick in two-TE leagues because he should be the starter and could easily see a path to being a top-12 performer.