Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Denver Broncos.
The system/scheme
• Uh-oh! The Broncos hired Rich Scangarello as their new OC, which likely means that the team will avoid modern offensive principles, as well as those based in analytics. Of course, with Joe Flacco and Drew Lock atop the QB depth chart, things probably weren't looking up for this offense anyway. However, the team wants to have a dominant defense, and by bringing in Scangarello, who has a run-based background, Denver may look to pound the rock with their two RBs. However, if they don't follow analytics, they'll find themselves running from common run formations and in obvious situations, which often leads to a sluggish offense.
Metrics
• Although he had a tough rookie season, Royce Freeman is not only 230 pounds, he has 87th-percentile speed along with 85th-percentile agility. If Denver does go run-heavy, Freeman is built to be a lead RB.
• Phillip Lindsay took advantage of the fifth-easiest schedule against the run last year before breaking his wrist at the end of the year. He broke into the league as a 184-pound player, and that's not the type of playing weight that correlates with being a lead back. He did run a 93rd-percentile 40-yard-dash, but his agility is below average, and none of his other workout metrics stand out.
• Courtland Sutton only caught half of the passes thrown his way last year, though he posted a solid 34.8% contested catch rate. Don't discount that he could break out in a big way because of his measurables- he has 84th percentile speed to go with 97th percentile agility while possessing above-average explosiveness and 91st percentile catch radius.
• Many analysts are excited about DaeSean Hamilton, and his 76th-percentile agility gives good reason to like him as a slot WR, but with below average speed and explosiveness, it's not surprising that in 2018 he only posted 8 YPR and he needed 9.5 targets per game (in the 4 games after Emmanuel Sanders was lost for the year) to be productive while failing to reach 50 yards in any of those contests.
• Rookie TEs rarely have great success, but Noah Fant is in at least the 96th percentile of all workout metrics- even if he doesn't have a good year in 2019, he's a phenomenal dynasty prospect.
Positive Spin
• Joe Flacco rolls back the clock about five or so years and is able to get decent production through the air, and combined with a strong rushing attack, they produce an average offense.
Negative Spin
• Flacco shows he washed, the rushing attack struggles because they're facing a much tougher schedule than they saw last year, and they often fail to score 17 points in games.
My advice-
• Although his ADP could go up throughout August, Freeman's mid-round ADP makes him a great target, especially for teams that load up on WRs/TEs early.
• It would seem foolish to bet on a WR in his 30s coming back from a torn Achilles, but Emmanuel Sanders was ready for training camp, and even though the QB play won't likely be good, a late draft pick on what should be Denver's most productive WR sounds like a good bet.
• Lindsay is being drafted as if he'll be the lead back, but between his size and the presence of Freeman, it'll be difficult for him to return value at his ADP.
• Courtland Sutton was inefficient last year, and although he should improve, his QB play projects to be problematic, and it's hard to imagine Sutton will blend well with either Flacco or Lock. Unless he falls really late in drafts, I'll avoid him.