Scheme and Metrics fantasy team preview- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Chicago Bears.
The system/scheme
• Matt Nagy was much more conservative in 2018 than what he showed while coaching under Andy Reid. He threw short passes way too frequently and leaned upon the rushing attack too much. It's possible this happened because of all the new players on the team and the fact that Trubisky had a lost rookie year under John Fox in which he didn't learn how to read NFL defenses. He has excellent weapons that are capable of putting enormous stress on defenses, and as long as he believes that Trubisky can make the throws and run the offense, it would be a surprise if he didn't make the offense much more aggressive this year.
• The staple passes the Bears used in 2018 were the curl, the out, and the screen. On those passes, Trubisky had, by far, his greatest success as a passer. He was also one of the least-efficient QBs when throwing the ball deep. This plan was likely to get him comfortable and give him early-career success. We'll see this year if Trubisky simply can't throw deep, or if it was part of his learning curve.
• The top 3 WRs and Trey Burton were all targeted between 43 and 46 times from the slot last year, so they all should continue to see chances at mismatches by continuing to see slot snaps.
• The team added David Montgomery, and to a lesser degree, Mike Davis, to replace Jordan Howard. The benefit of those moves is that defenses won't be tipped off to whether the play will be a run or a pass- this should allow Nagy to take this offense to the next level while helping Montgomery face light boxes on his way to a big season.
Metrics
• David Montgomery forced over 100 missed tackles in each of his last two collegiate seasons, and since this stat has been tracked (it began in 2014), he's the only player to have reached triple digits in any one season. He also shouldn't see stacked boxes, and if that happens, his elusiveness may make him a star from the outset.
• Now over a year removed from ACL surgery and in his prime at 26-years-old, Allen Robinson came into the league as a 92nd-precentile SPARQ athlete with 87th-percentile explosiveness and 75th- percentile agility along with top-quarter speed. Don't be surprised if he returns to being an elite player.
• Anthony Miller may have below-average speed, but he has 85th-percentile agility that should make him deadly both in the slot and on short-to-intermediate routes.
• If Trey Burton misses time, Adam Shaheen could be a breakout candidate in his third year after being drafted from a Division Two school- although Burton is faster in the 40-yard-dash, Shaheen is a superior athlete across the board, and he's a much-bigger target. Shaheen has 83rd- percentile speed, 65th-percentile agility and 54th-percentile explosiveness.
Positive Spin
• With most of the components of this offense having been together for two years, Nagy starts to call plays more aggressively, and between the scheme and the weapons, this becomes a top-five offense.
• Nagy is able to commit to analytics due to Montgomery's presence which allows the team to throw the ball aggressively on early downs, taking advantage of defenses that are in their base personnel.
Negative Spin
• Trubisky cannot consistently make downfield throws along with throws outside the hashmarks, and defenses flood the middle of the field and dare the QB to beat them, rendering all of the formations and scheming fairly useless.
My advice-
The fantasy community isn't sold on the Bears breaking out- the only player who has an aggressive ADP is Montgomery, who's going about 50 picks into drafts.
• If playing in a large tournament league, the Bears are a team I'd like to stack- Robinson is going outside the top-50, while Miller and Trubisky are going quite late. Those are the three players I'd prefer to stack, but a case can be made for Tarik Cohen, Burton or Montgomery as part of the stack.
• In season-long leagues, Robinson is the one Bear that I'd like to make sure ends up on my teams- I expect him to finish as a WR1 despite being picked as a WR2/3.
• People are worried about Mike Davis taking work from Montgomery- Davis has been a career backup for a reason. If Montgomery finishes as a solid RB2, as I feel he will, he'll be well worth the draft pick it'll take to acquire him.
• If I have the luxury of drafting a pair of QBs, Trubisky is the second one I'd like to have- I believe he can finish in the top-eight if the offense clicks.
• Not just because of his slow finish to 2018. But I'm likely fading Burton- there are too many other TEs I like much better that I can get at roughly the same point in drafts.