Scheme and Metrics- we'll take a look at each of the 32 teams and look at a combination of offensive scheme/philosophy and some player metrics to give us something else to think about when drafting our fantasy squads this summer. In this edition, we'll look at the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills offense is in the hands of Josh Allen, and the organization used the offseason to add pieces to what they perceive as his strengths:
The system/scheme
• When Allen took over starting duties last year, they quickly realized his accuracy was terrible, but when throwing the ball deep, at least his WRs has a chance to make big plays if they could create separation. The offense seems to be predicated on Allen's running ability along with his big arm. They added John Brown in free agency, and now the Bills have two legitimate deep threats.
Metrics
• With LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore past their prime, some fantasy analysts are hyping Devin Singletary as a draft target after the Bills selected him in the third round. However, all of Singletary's athletic measurables are below the 30th percentile, except for a (below average) 47th percentile explosiveness rating. The rookie may struggle to overtake the declining veterans this year.
• Robert Foster was a great deep threat down the stretch last year- not only did he run a 91st percentile 40-yard-dash, but he has 65th percentile agility, which gives him upside beyond being simply a vertical threat.
• John Brown is a slightly better version of Robert Foster, as Brown is faster while possessing 73rd percentile agility. He gives Josh Allen a second dynamic deep threat that also has shiftiness that far exceeds a one-dimensional WR.
The pros
• With a pair of legitimate deep threats in Foster and Brown, defenses will almost be forced to avoid stacking the box, which should allow the RBs room to run- also tethered to a running QB, that potentially creates more favorable running lanes for the RBs.
• At 235 pounds, Allen may be more durable than the running QBs who are barely 200 pounds.
The cons
• If Allen doesn't improve his ability to throw accurately, especially in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, the offense may struggle to move the chains, resulting in many short possessions. That could lead to the team playing from behind, which may not be a good thing for such a limited offense.
• Also, those accuracy issues will make it difficult for the ancillary receiving options to be productive.
• The lack of high-level offensive weapons may make this team easier to defend despite having a pair of deep threats.
• If Allen does get injured, this offense could struggle to score more than 10 points per game.
My advice-
• As we know, running QBs are the 'cheat code' in fantasy, and since the team is committed to Allen, he should be a low-end QB1 with upside to be a mid-range QB1.
• Because they have a collection of RBs that may not be able to separate from each other, the only way I will have any Bills' RBs is if LeSean McCoy goes way past his ADP to around pick 150. At that point, if he has any gas left in the tank, he could emerge as a flex.
• Both Brown and Foster are being picked extremely late in drafts. I would be willing to use a late pick on either of them in the leagues that have deep rosters.
• With Allen's accuracy issues, I don't feel comfortable drafting either TE Tyler Kroft or slot WR Cole Beasley, as I can't see them getting consistent volume (or even catchable passes).