This post provides an early March update for the ADP trends generated by the NFBC drafts, comparing February to March data. It's important to compare similar draft setups, so we'll examine only information from the NFBC Online format, a 30-round, 12-team contest that has in-season FAAB and began drafting in mid-January (there were 27 drafts completed in February and 23 in the first 10 days of March). Even though 12-team drafts obviously produce different results than 15-team drafts, this should provide a picture of which players are moving up draft boards and which are dropping.
I'm going to examine the players by positional groupings, but first let's take a look at the movement from February to March in terms of the overall top 15 picks to help you plan your first-round selection and setting KDS preferences for those competing in late March NFBC leagues:
Early March Overall Top 15:
1. Mike Trout
2. Mookie Betts
3. Jose Ramirez previously #4
4. Max Scherzer previously #3
5. J.D. Martinez
6. Trea Turner
7. Christian Yelich
8. Nolan Arenado previously #9
9. Ronald Acuna previously #8
10. Jacob DeGrom
11. Chris Sale previously #13
12. Jose Altuve previously #14
13. Alex Bregman previously #12
14. Bryce Harper previously #22
15. Aaron Judge
========================================
Note: Francisco Lindor fell from #11 to #16
As you can see, Bryce Harper is the big winner, moving all the way up to #14 and replacing Francisco Lindor in our expected first round in the upcoming 15-team drafts. The only other player moving more than one spot out of this group was Chris Sale, who jumped to #11 overall from #13.
The following positional breakdowns cite the average draft position (ADP) rounded to the nearest whole number. Blue indicates a stronger upward move and red indicates a downward shift. We've also divided the players into groups by ADP. These aren't tiers or recommended draft order, but instead just showing which players the market is grouping together in the same position - you can pick out your targets or fades once you know who is coming off the board at approximately the same time.
Catchers:
1. J.T. Realmuto 46 from 50
2. Gary Sanchez 54 from 55
======================================
3. Yasmani Grandal 121 from 130 previously #4
4. Willson Contreras 131 from 145 previously #6
5. Wilson Ramos 133 from 137
6. Buster Posey 145 from 146 previously #7
7. Yadier Molina 147 from 149 previously #8
=======================================
8. Danny Jansen 178 from 197 previously #9
9. Welington Castillo 216 from 221 previously #10
========================================
Note: Salvador Perez was the #3 Catcher in February before his injury, so everyone below him moved up with the exception of Wilson Ramos, who was passed by Willson Contreras and therefore stayed at #5.
First Basemen:
1. Paul Goldschmidt 19 from 21 previously #2
2. Freddie Freeman 22 from 20 previously #1
=========================================
3. Anthony Rizzo 38 from 38
4. Cody Bellinger (OF) 43 from 47
=========================================
5. Joey Votto 65 from 71
6. Matt Carpenter (3B) 72 from 83 previously #7
7. Jesus Aguilar 79 from 83 previously #6
8. Jose Abreu 88 from 92
=========================================
9. Joey Gallo 96 from 104
10. Matt Olson 113 from 113 previously #11
11. Max Muncy 121 from 113 previously #10
==========================================
Not as much movement at this position, although a few players swapped places. There seems to be more interest in Matt Carpenter though, perhaps because he provides help at two infield positions.
Second Basemen:
1. Jose Altuve 13 from 14
2. Whit Merrifield (OF) 31 from 31
==========================================
3. Ozzie Albies 61 from 62
4. Daniel Murphy 63 from 65
5. Gleyber Torres (SS) 65 from 67
7. Jonathan Villar 72 from 76
==========================================
8. Scooter Gennett 96 from 98
9. Travis Shaw (3B) 97 from 104 previously #10
10. Dee Gordon (OF) 106 from 103 previously #9
11. Rougned Odor 124 from 134 previously #12
12. Robinson Cano 129 from 131 previously #11
===========================================
This is a very stable group also, with only Travis Shaw and Rougned Odor showing some helium.
Third Basemen:
1. Jose Ramirez 4 from 4
2. Nolan Arenado 7 from 8
3. Alex Bregman (SS) 14 from 13
============================================
4. Kris Bryant 32 from 33
5. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 42 from 38
6. Anthony Rendon 43 from 45
7. Eugenio Suarez 55 from 59
=============================================
8. Miguel Andujar 90 from 86
9. Wil Myers (OF) 101 from 112 previously #11
10. Josh Donaldson 104 from 97 previously #9
11. Justin Turner 106 from 110 previously #10
12. Matt Chapman 118 from 113
=============================================
This position is highlighted by the upward move of Wil Myers, but you might note that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may fall from his current spot given the recent report of his oblique strain.
Shortstops:
1. Trea Turner 7 from 8
2. Francisco Lindor 14 from 12
3. Trevor Story 17 from 16
4. Javier Baez (2B/3B) 18 from 17
5. Manny Machado 20 from 18
=============================================
6. Adalberto Mondesi 37 from 40
7. Xander Bogaerts 49 from 47
8. Carlos Correa 51 from 51
9. Jean Segura 60 from 62
==============================================
10. Corey Seager 87 from 84
11. Jose Peraza 94 from 91
==============================================
This position is a model of stability, as these 11 shortstops have stayed in the exact same order from February to March, and none have moved more than three positions in the overall ADP.
Outfielders:
1. Mike Trout 1 from 1
2. Mookie Betts 2 from 2
3. J.D. Martinez 5 from 5
4. Christian Yelich 7 from 8
5. Ronald Acuna 8 from 8
============================================
6. Bryce Harper 15 from 21 previously #7
7. Aaron Judge 17 from 16 previously #6
8. Giancarlo Stanton 21 from 23
9. Charlie Blackmon 28 from 28
10. Andrew Benintendi 30 from 28
11. Juan Soto 36 from 35 previously #12
12. Starling Marte 37 from 35 previously #11
13. Rhys Hoskins 38 from 42
=============================================
14. Tommy Pham 56 from 55
15. Yasiel Puig 63 from 70 previously #16
16. Lorenzo Cain 64 from 61 previously #15
17. George Springer 64 from 72
18. David Dahl 71 from 73
==============================================
19, Marcell Ozuna 82 from 81
20. Eddie Rosario 83 from 93 previously #21
21. Victor Robles 91 from 92 previously #20
22. Mitch Haniger 96 from 98 previously #23
23. Joey Gallo (1B) 96 from 104 previously #26
24. Nicholas Castellanos 97 from 94 previously #22
25. Mallex Smith 98 from 101 previously #24
26. Justin Upton 104 from 104 previously #25
27. A.J. Pollock 104 from 114 previously #29
28. Michael Conforto 104 from 109 previously #27
===============================================
29. Aaron Hicks 115 from 122 previously #31
30. Eloy Jimenez 120 from 110 previously #28
31. Michael Brantley 122 from 118 previously #30
32. Byron Buxton 133 from 161 previously #39
33. Andrew McCutchen 137 from 147 previously #35
================================================
There is a more movement among the outfield ranks, and most of it is upward. In addition to Bryce Harper, we also have rising ADP for Yasiel Puig, George Springer, Joey Gallo, A.J. Pollock, Byron Buxton and Andrew McCutchen, while Eloy Jimenez is fading a bit.
Starting Pitchers:
1. Max Scherzer 5 from 4
2. Jacob DeGrom 10 from 10
3. Chris Sale 13 from 13
================================================
4. Justin Verlander 20 from 20
5. Gerrit Cole 23 from 25 previously #6
6. Corey Kluber 24 from 24 previously #5
7. Aaron Nola 26 from 26
8. Trevor Bauer 29 from 32 previously #9
9. Blake Snell 30 from 29 previously #8
10. Carlos Carrasco 36 from 37
11. Walker Buehler 37 from 39 previously #13
12. Noah Syndergaard 38 from 38
================================================
13. Luis Severino 45 from 33 previously #10
14. Patrick Corbin 50 from 50 previously #15
15. James Paxton 50 from 54 previously #16
16. Jameson Taillon 56 from 56 previously #17
17. Stephen Strasburg 58 from 58 previously #18
18. Clayton Kershaw 61 from 49 previously #14
19. Jack Flaherty 61 from 64 previously #20
20. Mike Clevinger 62 from 62 previously #19
21. Jose Berrios 68 from 72 previously #22
22. Zack Greinke 71 from 68 previously #21
23. German Marquez 78 from 81 previously #25
================================================
24. Madison Bumgarner 87 from 77 previously #23
25. Zack Wheeler 88 from 78 previously #24
26. Miles Mikolas 97 from 94 previously #27
27. David Price 102 from 99 previously #28
28. Luis Castillo 108 from 109 previously #29
29. Charlie Morton 117 from 112 previously #30
30. Mike Foltynewicz 122 from 94 previously #26
================================================
31. Kyle Hendricks 129 from 128
32. Masahiro Tanaka 129 from 132 previously #32
33. Robbie Ray 131 from 130 previously #33
34. Chris Archer 135 from 136
35. Shane Bieber 138 from 148 previously #36
36. Yu Darvish 140 from 138 previously #37
37. J.A. Happ 146 from 137 previously #35
38. Nick Pivetta 148 from 151
39. Tyler Glasnow 149 from 158 previously #42
40. Eduardo Rodriguez 153 from 155 previously #39
================================================
Out of the top 40 starting pitchers, there are six falling ADPs - three due to injury concerns (Luis Severino, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Foltynewicz). The two risers (Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow) have been popular sleeper picks and seem to have more steam than some of the other pitchers in their ADP range.
Relief Pitchers:
1. Edwin Diaz 54 from 50
2. Blake Treinen 63 from 58
================================================
3. Kenley Jansen 76 from 72 previously #5
4. Aroldis Chapman 76 from 70 previously #3
5. Brad Hand 76 from 79 previously #7
6. Roberto Osuna 80 from 77
7. Felipe Vazquez 84 from 86 previously #8
8. Craig Kimbrel 87 from 72 previously #4
================================================
9. Kirby Yates 104 from 110 previously #11
10. Sean Doolittle 104 from 96 previously #9
11. Jose Leclerc 108 from 111 previously #12
12. Josh Hader 109 from 102 previously #10
13. Raisel Iglesias 110 from 112
14. Wade Davis 120 from 115
15. Corey Knebel 125 from 125
=================================================
16. Ken Giles 136 from 126
17. Cody Allen 144 from 153
18. Jose Alvarado 153 from 157 previously #19
19. David Robertson 159 from 155 previously #18
=================================================
Most of the top relievers have seen their ADP fade a bit in March. Craig Kimbrel, who at this writing is still without a team, and Ken Giles have tumbled the most, but many of the others have fallen back a small number of spots. However, if you're looking to gauge closers for your upcoming draft - a word of caution. Often the draft timing of relief pitchers is highly dependent on your individual league, as there can be a pronounced closer run at any time between pick 70 to pick 110. One thing is for sure though, the secondary options will start to go in the 70s and 80s and once you pass pick 100 even the holdout teams in 15-team leagues will be aggressively looking to add a closer to their roster.