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Cleveland Gambles on Brandon Moss

The mass exodus from Oakland (juxtaposed with the now-bizarre Billy Butler signing) continued on Monday with the trade of Brandon Moss to the Cleveland Indians for prospect Joey Wendle. The trade doesn't come as a huge surprise as the two teams were linked for a Moss deal for a while now, but the return for Oakland feels a bit underwhelming. Wendle is a 25-year old second baseman who spent his season in Double-A, but also missed a month due to a right hamate injury in late-June.

He isn't regarded too highly in the prospect community, missing the Indians list for most outlets, though he did register ninth on the 2014 list at Baseball Prospectus (sub-req). Their report – written last November – backs up everything you have likely read about Wendle since the deal went down. Nothing he does jumps off the page, especially from a statistical standpoint, but the outlook improves when you're watching him. The bat is the carrying tool, rating between 55-60 on the scouting scale, and gives him a chance to play better at maturation than the numbers he's put up so far would suggest, but it's hard to ignore the modest work at Double-A as a 24-year old.

I'm trying not to do the thing where we just give Oakland the automatic benefit of the doubt and prop up the players they receive in deals because of Billy Beane, but I'm careful not to go the other way and just write this off as a ripoff simply because I'm not too familiar with Wendle while Moss has developed into a huge power threat over the last three seasons.

I was definitely surprised when I saw the terms of the deal, but it's not as simple as looking at the numbers. Moss is in the midst of arbitration with 76 homers in his last three seasons so his price is sure to go up, plus he's heading into his age-31 season on the heels of an offseason right hip surgery. All of that helps explain why the return might not be as big as you would expect given Moss' ascent. Estimates have Moss making $7-8 million dollars in arbitration this year which would eclipse Butler's $6.67 mil and make Moss the highest paid Athletic (although Jeff Samardzija will pass that in arbitration if he remains with Oakland, scratch that – Samardzija was traded in between starting and finishing this write-up).

So this is a classic buy-low for the Indians which could pay major dividends. It jams up their 1B/DH/OF situation even more, but his ability to play all three means he will get his time. If anything, his addition likely spells the end in Cleveland for someone else, probably someone in the Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn, or David Murphy trio. On the fantasy side, this move is a huge boon for Moss. His power plays anywhere which is why he was able to find success in Oakland, but his home AVG and OPS totals have plummeted since that half-season breakthrough in 2012:

HomePAHRAVGOBPSLGOPS
201215590.2730.3350.5320.868
2013230100.2430.3260.4700.796
2014264120.1970.2990.4040.703

His road numbers are sliding as well, but from 1.050 in 2012 to .831 last year, which is still perfectly useful (a full season of .831 OPS would've been the 25th-best in baseball last year). His home ballpark is now far more favorable, too, particularly with regard to home runs so this is definitely a plus move for Moss. Looking specifically at home run park factors for lefties, he is moving from an 82 in Oakland (where 100 is average) to a 112 in Cleveland. That's a huge boost.

Health is the big unknown and we will obviously learn more as Spring Training nears so we won't be working blind by the time draft seasons rolls around. With a clean bill of health in March, Moss is a very intriguing gamble as power remains in short supply across the fantasy landscape. The high end could put him into the mid-30s with relative ease, even accounting for time lost against lefties (78-point platoon split) though he was actually better against lefties in 2014 (.792 OPS, compared to .768 v. RHP) so maybe he's progressing, but let's bet on the historical trend and put him down for 140-145 games.

Moss' high end could yield something like a .270-38-114 season, but that's with full health and continued solid work against lefties. Pay for a .245-29-93 kind of season and make your adjustments as necessary based on the health reports in late-winter, early-spring.