We all know that James White is an obvious upgrade this week with Sony Michel listed as doubtful with a knee injury and the Patriots facing a bad Bills team. But with the Patriots' well-established aversion to running White between the tackles, what about Kenjon Barner in Week 8?
Earlier this week, I claimed Barner in FAAB or FCFS in most of my leagues, theorizing he's bound to get 10-plus rushes and a TD in a game in which the Patriots are double-digit favorites. When I posted this logic on Twitter, though, @MarkStopa, few seemed to support me. RotoWire colleague and good buddy Kevin Payne panned the tweet, and I've also seen Barner called a "Hail Mary" and "dart throw" by others in the industry.
This made me want to dig into my theory a bit more.
Most would agree that Barner will fill the lead "rushing-back" role for New England this week. But what does that mean, exactly? How has the "lead rushing back" for the Patriots fared in games where they're double-digit favorites? Let's take a look.
Here is the result of each Patriots game since 2016 when they were double-digit favorites and the running back production, on the ground, in each:
• 2018 Week 5 vs Colts, -10; Win 38-24: Michel 18-98-1; White 2-0-0
• 2017 Div. Rd. vs. Titans, -13.5; Win 35-14: Dion Lewis 15-62-0, Bolden 4-27-1, White 4-11-1
• 2017 Week 17 vs. Jets, -15.5; Win 26-6: Lewis 26-93-1, Brandon Bolden 9-46-0
• 2017 Week 16 vs. Bills, -12; Win 37-16: Lewis 24-129-1, Mike Gillislee 6-28-1, Bolden 4-20
• 2017 Week 14 vs. Dolphins, -12; Loss 27-20: Lewis 5-17-0, Burkhead 5-8-1, White DNP
• 2017 Week 3 vs. Texans, -13; Win 36-33: Gillislee 12-31-0, White 5-17-0
• 2016 Div. Rd. vs. Texans, -16; Win 34-16: Lewis 13-41-1, Blount 8-31-0
• 2016 Week 13 vs. Rams, -13.5; Win 26-10: Blount 18-88-1, Lewis 5-27-0, White 3-17-0
• 2016 Week 11 vs. 49ers, -13; Win 30-17; Blount 19-124-0, Lewis 5-23-0
• 2016 Week 5 vs. Browns, -10.5; Win 33-13: Blount 18-37-1, White 5-26-0
Do you see any trends here? I sure do.
The Patriots won by double digits in nine of these 11 games. Look at the production for the Pats RBs on the ground in these nine contests. In eight of these nine games, they got at least one rushing TD. The lone exception, Week 11 of 2016, Blount went 19-124-0. We can hence summarize it this way: in the 11 games in which the Pats have been a double-digit favorite since 2016, they won nine of those games by double digits, and their running backs ran for a TD and/or 100 yards in all nine of those games.
Just as notable in these nine games was the number of carries: 20, 23, 35, 34, 31, 21, 26, 24, 23. Notice James White's production in these games? Not one game with more than five carries. So when Michel sits this week, and the Pats continue their trend of having 20-plus carries in games where they're favored by double-digits and win by 10-plus points, you tell me: who's going to get the carries?
I can hear the criticism now. "You're cherry-picking the games where the Pats won by double digits, Stopa, ignoring the ones where they didn't."
That's true, kind of. In two of the 11 games in which the Pats have been a double-digit favorite since 2016, their running backs laid an egg on the ground. One of those whiffs was a loss in Miami, while the other was a shootout against Deshaun Watson. You tell me, friends: is Buffalo going to beat the Patriots this week? Is Derek Anderson going to quarterback a shootout? Even the diehards among Bills Mafia would concede, "no" and "no." New England is going to win by double-digits, just like it's done in nine of 11 games where it's been a double-digit favorite since 2016.
When you look at Barner this week, look at those nine game logs, above: 20-plus carries resulted in 100 yards and/or a TD in *every* game. That's why I see Barner as a virtual lock for 10-15 carries – with upside for more – and a TD this week.