It's hard to know what to feel after a game like that. I had Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham going, and the Giants plus 5.5, so the ending was a pleasant surprise for a change. But the Giants lost, Eli Manning, despite the cosmetically good numbers, was still Eli, and all the five people who picked the Falcons in my survivor pool lived to see Week 8.
Of course, the big topic after the game was Pat Shurmur going for two after scoring the TD to cut the Falcons lead to 20-12. It was the right call, and the math is fairly clear on this. If you go for two and fail (55%), then you know you have to go for two the next time you score. If you make it (45%), then it's the same as having kicked two PATs (and not missing either.) When you do the math .55 * .45 = 24.75%. In other words, roughly a quarter of the time, it makes no difference that you went for two and missed on the first one because you made the second one.
But what about the other 75.25 percent of the time?
That's divided into two categories. Make the first and kick the PAT second or miss the first and miss the second. In the first case, you win the game, and in the second you lose. Which is more likely?
The historical odds of making the first is simply 45 percent. If that happens you kick the PAT and win. The odds of missing both is 55 percent of 55 percent = 30.25%. If that happens, you lose. Last I checked 45 percent is bigger than 30.25.
So the question is would you rather give yourself a 45 percent chance to win, a 30.25 chance to lose and a 24.75 chance to tie and go to overtime, or just roll the dice with a 50 percent chance in overtime? Obviously, your odds improve if you have a better chance to win than lose in regulation.
There's an oversimplification here - I'm assuming the PAT is a 100-percent proposition which it's not, especially since they moved the try back to the 15 yard line. But that would only make the case for going for two even stronger.
• Eli Manning threw for 399 yards, 10.5 YPA, one TD and no picks, but he took four sacks, at least two of which were due to him not getting rid of the ball, the TD was in garbage time, and he missed a wide-open Odell Beckham on a couple plays. He also threw behind Saquon Barkley at least twice, hit an Atlanta defender in the chest with a ball that was dropped and looked like a 90-year man trying to execute two failed QB sneaks at the end of the game. Manning did throw a couple nice deep balls, so I don't think arm strength is his main issue. It's sluggishness, lack of pocket awareness, lack of touch, poor decision making and bad instincts.
• Odell Beckham went 11-8-143-1 and made great catches on the sideline to keep the backdoor cover alive. He's the league's best receiver and would torch the record book if he had even a semi-competent QB. Sterling Shepard went 8-5-167, making two big plays downfield. He's not as explosive as Beckham, but he got open and made nice plays when the ball was in the air. Evan Engram in his first game back went a modest 4-2-16 and had a carry for 10 yards.
• Saquon Barkley was largely bottled up and failed to crack 100 YFS for the first time in his career (94), but he still caught nine passes and scored a TD and a two-point conversion. He now has 49 catches in seven games, leading all RBs and trailing only four receivers (Adam Thielen, Beckham, Julio Jones and Michael Thomas.)
• The Giants defense played a good game, blitzing and getting pressure on Matt Ryan and only getting burned once on a big play, the 47-yard TD to Marvin Hall.
• Matt Ryan had 379 yards (9.7 YPA), one TD and no picks. He took three sacks. Ryan faced the better defense Monday night, but he's more accurate and less mistake-prone than Manning.
• Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith split the carries - 11 for 50 for Coleman (though most of that came on a 30-yard TD run) and seven for 16 for Smith. Both backs caught two passes. Coleman is still the better fantasy option for now.
• Jones went 12-9-104-0, failing to get into the end zone yet again. He has to be close to a record for yardage to start the year without scoring. Austin Hooper went 4-3-38, Calvin Ridley 6-5-43 and Mohamed Sanu 2-2-21.
• Matt Bryant's replacement Giorgio Tavecchio came up huge for the Falcons, nailing 50 and 56-yard field goals in a three-point win.