Yesterday I ran the Steamer hitter numbers and compared them to NFBC ADP. Today, I quickly ran Steamer's numbers for pitchers and hitters through my formula, adjusting for closer scarcity in a hypothetical 12-team NFBC league and generated an overall list. I still haven't adjusted catchers for position scarcity (or reduced DHs), so the hitters are by-the-numbers only. Moreover, I changed the dollar values for hitters slightly as I used a 66/34 split (what I discovered the NFBC drafters were using last year), rather than the 67/33 one I used last night. I also was lazy and just used last year's $293.36 that was spent on closers for this year's closer budget.
Here are the results:
Rk | Name | ADP | $ | Diff | Rk | Name | ADP | $ | Diff | Rk | Name | ADP | $ | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mike Trout | 1.1 | 46.78 | 0 | 151 | Michael Wacha | 237.9 | 7.87 | -87 | 301 | Chris Stratton | 537.6 | -1.55 | -237 |
2 | Giancarlo Stanton | 9 | 43.09 | -7 | 152 | Delino DeShields | 220.8 | 7.77 | -69 | 302 | Jason Heyward | 408.2 | -1.64 | -106 |
3 | Clayton Kershaw | 7 | 39.54 | -4 | 153 | Brett Gardner | 180.8 | 7.69 | -28 | 303 | Dylan Bundy | 193.4 | -1.71 | 110 |
4 | Nolan Arenado | 5.3 | 37.99 | -1 | 154 | Brad Hand | 117.1 | 7.69 | 37 | 304 | Melky Cabrera | 303.2 | -1.94 | 1 |
5 | Manny Machado | 19.1 | 35.56 | -14 | 155 | Ryan Braun | 111.9 | 7.67 | 43 | 305 | Patrick Corbin | 240.6 | -1.96 | 64 |
6 | Trea Turner | 5.2 | 35.55 | 1 | 156 | Lance McCullers | 155.7 | 7.64 | 0 | 306 | Kyle Gibson | 467.1 | -2.04 | -161 |
7 | Bryce Harper | 8.4 | 34.91 | -1 | 157 | Ian Happ | 139.7 | 7.63 | 17 | 307 | Eduardo Nunez | 129.9 | -2.09 | 177 |
8 | Mookie Betts | 8.6 | 34.83 | -1 | 158 | Yoan Moncada | 134.3 | 7.57 | 24 | 308 | John Lackey | 447.7 | -2.16 | -140 |
9 | Paul Goldschmidt | 4.3 | 34.17 | 5 | 159 | Blake Snell | 217.9 | 7.46 | -59 | 309 | Mike Foltynewicz | 351.9 | -2.19 | -43 |
10 | Chris Sale | 12.8 | 33.54 | -3 | 160 | Trevor Bauer | 145.6 | 7.41 | 14 | 310 | Walker Buehler | 362.4 | -2.21 | -52 |
11 | Jose Altuve | 2.1 | 33.44 | 9 | 161 | Gio Gonzalez | 142.9 | 7.39 | 18 | 311 | Ben Zobrist | 450.9 | -2.24 | -140 |
12 | Max Scherzer | 10.5 | 32.22 | 2 | 162 | Chris Davis | 248.1 | 7.34 | -86 | 312 | Kolten Wong | 377.2 | -2.29 | -65 |
13 | Kris Bryant | 15.5 | 31.47 | -3 | 163 | Kole Calhoun | 285.4 | 7.21 | -122 | 313 | Kirby Yates | 461.3 | -2.32 | -148 |
14 | Charlie Blackmon | 8.4 | 31.38 | 6 | 164 | David Robertson | 286 | 7.18 | -122 | 314 | Joe Biagini | 613.2 | -2.43 | -299 |
15 | Anthony Rizzo | 24.7 | 31.14 | -10 | 165 | Matt Carpenter | 185.4 | 7.08 | -20 | 315 | Carl Edwards Jr. | 340.5 | -2.44 | -26 |
16 | Francisco Lindor | 21.3 | 30.66 | -5 | 166 | Jay Bruce | 163.8 | 7.06 | 2 | 316 | Adalberto Mejia | 588.1 | -2.47 | -272 |
17 | Jose Ramirez | 19.5 | 28.68 | -3 | 167 | Jorge Polanco | 204.8 | 7.04 | -38 | 317 | Zack Godley | 133.4 | -2.64 | 184 |
18 | Corey Kluber | 13.5 | 28.43 | 5 | 168 | Danny Salazar | 172.3 | 7.02 | -4 | 318 | Zach Davies | 295.5 | -2.75 | 23 |
19 | Craig Kimbrel | 45.1 | 27.90 | -26 | 169 | Paul DeJong | 150.6 | 6.98 | 18 | 319 | Ervin Santana | 183.9 | -2.78 | 135 |
20 | Noah Syndergaard | 33.7 | 27.27 | -14 | 170 | Willson Contreras | 53.7 | 6.97 | 116 | 320 | Tommy Kahnle | 455.3 | -2.88 | -135 |
21 | Josh Donaldson | 28.5 | 27.06 | -8 | 171 | Sonny Gray | 145 | 6.85 | 26 | 321 | Dillon Peters | 529.5 | -2.88 | -209 |
22 | Kenley Jansen | 37.9 | 27.05 | -16 | 172 | Rick Porcello | 236.2 | 6.82 | -64 | 322 | Tim Beckham | 270 | -2.99 | 52 |
23 | Carlos Correa | 13.9 | 26.73 | 9 | 173 | Alex Wood | 103.2 | 6.80 | 70 | 323 | Steven Souza Jr. | 180.5 | -3.00 | 143 |
24 | Joey Votto | 18.5 | 26.52 | 6 | 174 | Cesar Hernandez | 252.7 | 6.75 | -79 | 324 | Devon Travis | 404.6 | -3.01 | -81 |
25 | Christian Yelich | 69 | 26.49 | -44 | 175 | Jake Arrieta | 94.4 | 6.69 | 81 | 325 | Yadier Molina | 148.7 | -3.03 | 176 |
26 | Jose Abreu | 42.8 | 25.95 | -17 | 176 | Gregory Bird | 154.9 | 6.67 | 21 | 326 | Fernando Rodney | 243.4 | -3.07 | 83 |
27 | Starling Marte | 50.8 | 25.57 | -24 | 177 | Josh Reddick | 264.1 | 6.64 | -87 | 327 | Jorge Bonifacio | 399.1 | -3.07 | -72 |
28 | George Springer | 31 | 25.14 | -3 | 178 | Manuel Margot | 149.8 | 6.63 | 28 | 328 | Brad Peacock | 212.2 | -3.07 | 116 |
29 | Jacob deGrom | 34.8 | 24.77 | -6 | 179 | Jose Peraza | 201.7 | 6.12 | -23 | 329 | Lance Lynn | 217.2 | -3.11 | 112 |
30 | Marcell Ozuna | 48.3 | 24.64 | -18 | 180 | Danny Duffy | 177.9 | 5.89 | 2 | 330 | Brad Brach | 229.5 | -3.21 | 101 |
31 | Stephen Strasburg | 25 | 24.54 | 6 | 181 | Luis Castillo | 105 | 5.88 | 76 | 331 | Alex Cobb | 222.8 | -3.23 | 108 |
32 | Nelson Cruz | 54.2 | 24.34 | -22 | 182 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 282.7 | 5.82 | -101 | 332 | Jonathan Villar | 187.8 | -3.25 | 144 |
33 | Aaron Judge | 17.6 | 24.30 | 15 | 183 | Drew Pomeranz | 184.1 | 5.75 | -1 | 333 | Josh Hader | 306.5 | -3.26 | 27 |
34 | Andrew Benintendi | 42.2 | 23.98 | -8 | 184 | Kyle Schwarber | 185.1 | 5.66 | -1 | 334 | Joc Pederson | 369.2 | -3.29 | -35 |
35 | Rhys Hoskins | 50.8 | 23.86 | -16 | 185 | J.A. Happ | 256.4 | 5.52 | -71 | 335 | Jacob Barnes | 612.7 | -3.31 | -278 |
36 | Freddie Freeman | 22.1 | 23.14 | 14 | 186 | Dexter Fowler | 254.6 | 5.49 | -69 | 336 | Phil Maton | 627.2 | -3.35 | -291 |
37 | Aroldis Chapman | 64.9 | 23.05 | -28 | 187 | Matt Chapman | 280.6 | 5.01 | -94 | 337 | Juan Nicasio | 420.9 | -3.41 | -84 |
38 | Brian Dozier | 38.5 | 22.87 | -1 | 188 | Billy Hamilton | 58.6 | 4.98 | 129 | 338 | CC Sabathia | 352.8 | -3.45 | -15 |
39 | Eric Hosmer | 68.4 | 22.70 | -29 | 189 | Josh Harrison | 267.1 | 4.95 | -78 | 339 | Adam Wainwright | 459.5 | -3.59 | -121 |
40 | Luis Severino | 33.3 | 22.52 | 7 | 190 | Salvador Perez | 98.7 | 4.95 | 91 | 340 | Adam Frazier | 402 | -3.63 | -62 |
41 | Cody Bellinger | 24.5 | 22.36 | 17 | 191 | Scott Schebler | 276.8 | 4.87 | -86 | 341 | Yasmany Tomas | 315.8 | -3.80 | 25 |
42 | Alex Bregman | 33.2 | 22.15 | 9 | 192 | Michael Brantley | 250.5 | 4.84 | -59 | 342 | Tim Anderson | 193.1 | -3.84 | 149 |
43 | J.D. Martinez | 24.2 | 21.93 | 19 | 193 | Joe Musgrove | 393 | 4.73 | -200 | 343 | Brandon Woodruff | 378.6 | -3.89 | -36 |
44 | Chris Archer | 52.3 | 21.85 | -8 | 194 | Starlin Castro | 258.5 | 4.65 | -65 | 344 | Luis Perdomo | 509.7 | -3.92 | -166 |
45 | Jose Quintana | 76.3 | 21.74 | -31 | 195 | Chris Devenski | 290.4 | 4.41 | -95 | 345 | Lucas Duda | 445.4 | -3.93 | -100 |
46 | Justin Verlander | 38 | 21.64 | 8 | 196 | Kendrys Morales | 297.7 | 4.38 | -102 | 346 | Victor Martinez | 552.6 | -3.94 | -207 |
47 | Edwin Encarnacion | 56.6 | 20.35 | -10 | 197 | Charlie Morton | 172.9 | 4.29 | 24 | 347 | Jerad Eickhoff | 376.7 | -4.01 | -30 |
48 | Corey Knebel | 61.3 | 20.34 | -13 | 198 | Dellin Betances | 274.5 | 4.29 | -77 | 348 | Nick Markakis | 428.7 | -4.06 | -81 |
49 | Madison Bumgarner | 26 | 20.30 | 23 | 199 | Kevin Gausman | 206.5 | 4.25 | -8 | 349 | Nate Jones | 412.6 | -4.10 | -64 |
50 | Carlos Carrasco | 36.2 | 20.23 | 14 | 200 | Michael Conforto | 170.3 | 4.20 | 30 | 350 | Jake Odorizzi | 278.6 | -4.10 | 71 |
51 | Jonathan Schoop | 62.8 | 20.10 | -12 | 201 | Garrett Richards | 183.8 | 4.17 | 17 | 351 | Vince Velasquez | 370.7 | -4.12 | -20 |
52 | Corey Seager | 39 | 19.83 | 13 | 202 | Mitch Haniger | 212.1 | 4.03 | -10 | 352 | Brock Stewart | 537.1 | -4.12 | -185 |
53 | Ken Giles | 98 | 19.60 | -45 | 203 | Willie Calhoun | 271.4 | 3.99 | -68 | 353 | Logan Morrison | 286.8 | -4.25 | 66 |
54 | Robinson Cano | 83 | 19.48 | -29 | 204 | Clayton Richard | 503.6 | 3.95 | -300 | 354 | Seth Lugo | 546.8 | -4.33 | -193 |
55 | Andrew Miller | 210.2 | 19.23 | -155 | 205 | Andrelton Simmons | 187.3 | 3.92 | 18 | 355 | Yonder Alonso | 306.8 | -4.35 | 48 |
56 | Andrew McCutchen | 83.3 | 19.19 | -27 | 206 | Michael Fulmer | 192.8 | 3.86 | 13 | 356 | Daniel Norris | 449.3 | -4.36 | -93 |
57 | Wil Myers | 71.7 | 19.11 | -15 | 207 | Jedd Gyorko | 355.4 | 3.85 | -148 | 357 | Troy Tulowitzki | 380.3 | -4.41 | -23 |
58 | Edwin Diaz | 90.9 | 18.73 | -33 | 208 | Taijuan Walker | 222.3 | 3.73 | -14 | 358 | Jason Vargas | 449.7 | -4.44 | -92 |
59 | Ian Desmond | 114.4 | 18.47 | -55 | 209 | Tyler Skaggs | 372.5 | 3.73 | -164 | 359 | Blake Treinen | 199.2 | -4.50 | 160 |
60 | A.J. Pollock | 63.3 | 18.16 | -3 | 210 | Orlando Arcia | 189.4 | 3.66 | 21 | 360 | Drew Steckenrider | 366.2 | -4.52 | -6 |
61 | Jeff Samardzija | 140.1 | 18.16 | -79 | 211 | Wade Davis | 102.9 | 3.51 | 108 | 361 | Chad Green | 287.1 | -4.53 | 74 |
62 | Dee Gordon | 28.1 | 17.98 | 34 | 212 | Randal Grichuk | 356.7 | 3.43 | -145 | 362 | Carlos Rodon | 366.5 | -4.55 | -5 |
63 | DJ LeMahieu | 129.7 | 17.96 | -67 | 213 | Tanner Roark | 262.6 | 3.35 | -50 | 363 | Brent Suter | 536.3 | -4.56 | -173 |
64 | Khris Davis | 69.4 | 17.75 | -5 | 214 | Todd Frazier | 287.4 | 3.16 | -73 | 364 | Joakim Soria | 392.8 | -4.57 | -29 |
65 | Felipe Rivero | 92.5 | 17.67 | -28 | 215 | Jose Berrios | 111 | 3.16 | 104 | 365 | Austin Hays | 361.3 | -4.60 | 4 |
66 | Joey Gallo | 115.9 | 17.64 | -50 | 216 | Jason Kipnis | 260.2 | 3.13 | -44 | 366 | Aaron Sanchez | 222.9 | -4.63 | 143 |
67 | Zack Greinke | 45.6 | 17.57 | 21 | 217 | Bradley Zimmer | 204.9 | 2.97 | 12 | 367 | Alex Gordon | 517.3 | -4.74 | -150 |
68 | Nomar Mazara | 160.5 | 17.40 | -93 | 218 | Joe Panik | 376.5 | 2.96 | -159 | 368 | Ryon Healy | 192.9 | -4.76 | 175 |
69 | Rougned Odor | 110.9 | 17.40 | -42 | 219 | Luiz Gohara | 287.8 | 2.95 | -69 | 369 | Mike Zunino | 163.9 | -4.85 | 205 |
70 | David Price | 123.1 | 17.16 | -53 | 220 | J.T. Realmuto | 103.4 | 2.68 | 117 | 370 | Mike Minor | 302.4 | -4.85 | 68 |
71 | Justin Upton | 46.6 | 16.88 | 24 | 221 | Dinelson Lamet | 216.9 | 2.65 | 4 | 371 | Doug Fister | 554.8 | -4.85 | -184 |
72 | Yu Darvish | 51.5 | 16.84 | 21 | 222 | Kevin Pillar | 318.3 | 2.57 | -96 | 372 | Darren O'Day | 564.4 | -4.94 | -192 |
73 | Yoenis Cespedes | 96.4 | 16.81 | -23 | 223 | Kenta Maeda | 199.5 | 2.52 | 24 | 373 | Bryan Shaw | 559.9 | -5.22 | -187 |
74 | James Paxton | 77.3 | 16.45 | -3 | 224 | Arodys Vizcaino | 149.9 | 2.49 | 74 | 374 | Nick Williams | 271.1 | -5.22 | 103 |
75 | Anthony Rendon | 57.8 | 16.36 | 17 | 225 | Mitch Moreland | 402 | 2.45 | -177 | 375 | Bryan Mitchell | 525.5 | -5.25 | -151 |
76 | Justin Turner | 85.7 | 16.24 | -10 | 226 | Adam Duvall | 170 | 2.42 | 56 | 376 | C.J. Cron | 394.8 | -5.25 | -19 |
77 | Carlos Martinez | 53.9 | 16.22 | 23 | 227 | Max Kepler | 273 | 2.34 | -46 | 377 | Matt Joyce | 492.7 | -5.32 | -116 |
78 | Miguel Cabrera | 94.1 | 16.18 | -16 | 228 | Alex Colome | 117.4 | 2.33 | 111 | 378 | Tyler Mahle | 407 | -5.41 | -29 |
79 | Elvis Andrus | 56.4 | 16.15 | 23 | 229 | Jeurys Familia | 176 | 2.30 | 53 | 379 | Albert Almora Jr. | 375.9 | -5.42 | 3 |
80 | Adam Jones | 145.7 | 15.65 | -66 | 230 | Cole Hamels | 236.5 | 2.15 | -7 | 380 | Santiago Casilla | 623.5 | -5.45 | -244 |
81 | Yasiel Puig | 112.2 | 15.31 | -31 | 231 | Sean Manaea | 252.4 | 2.08 | -21 | 381 | Jose Pirela | 387.1 | -5.52 | -6 |
82 | Eddie Rosario | 118.4 | 15.16 | -36 | 232 | Mike Clevinger | 218.5 | 1.97 | 14 | 382 | Jhoulys Chacin | 354.1 | -5.90 | 28 |
83 | Jon Lester | 119.8 | 15.02 | -37 | 233 | Dan Straily | 316.9 | 1.94 | -84 | 383 | Tommy Hunter | 585.1 | -5.91 | -202 |
84 | Dallas Keuchel | 77.3 | 15.02 | 7 | 234 | Kelvin Herrera | 208 | 1.81 | 26 | 384 | Kendall Graveman | 483.6 | -6.00 | -100 |
85 | Roberto Osuna | 79.3 | 15.00 | 6 | 235 | Brent Honeywell | 275.3 | 1.64 | -40 | 385 | Tyler Lyons | 419.5 | -6.02 | -35 |
86 | Robbie Ray | 45.9 | 14.94 | 40 | 236 | Scott Alexander | 632 | 1.54 | -396 | 386 | Mikie Mahtook | 335 | -6.05 | 51 |
87 | Carlos Santana | 172.8 | 14.88 | -86 | 237 | Cam Bedrosian | 331.5 | 1.50 | -95 | 387 | Nick Goody | 617.5 | -6.13 | -231 |
88 | Gary Sanchez | 20.7 | 14.86 | 67 | 238 | Joe Mauer | 392 | 1.47 | -154 | 388 | J.P. Crawford | 378.6 | -6.14 | 9 |
89 | Lorenzo Cain | 99 | 14.85 | -10 | 239 | Jordan Montgomery | 250.4 | 1.45 | -11 | 389 | Tyler Glasnow | 374.7 | -6.18 | 14 |
90 | Xander Bogaerts | 86.4 | 14.83 | 4 | 240 | Jaime Garcia | 534.9 | 1.40 | -295 | 390 | Juan Minaya | 336.9 | -6.34 | 53 |
91 | Sean Doolittle | 132.6 | 14.61 | -42 | 241 | Brandon Crawford | 327.9 | 1.27 | -87 | 391 | Andrew Triggs | 486.2 | -6.39 | -95 |
92 | Aaron Nola | 67.9 | 14.42 | 24 | 242 | Miles Mikolas | 322.8 | 1.27 | -81 | 392 | Mychal Givens | 395.1 | -6.41 | -3 |
93 | Kyle Seager | 134.2 | 14.42 | -41 | 243 | Marwin Gonzalez | 114.7 | 1.23 | 128 | 393 | Carson Smith | 597.1 | -6.53 | -204 |
94 | Tommy Pham | 61.4 | 14.03 | 33 | 244 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | 340 | 1.18 | -96 | 394 | Jason Hammel | 538.8 | -6.53 | -145 |
95 | Domingo Santana | 74.8 | 14.03 | 20 | 245 | Stephen Piscotty | 297.6 | 1.08 | -53 | 395 | Erasmo Ramirez | 456.6 | -6.58 | -62 |
96 | Nick Castellanos | 103.7 | 13.84 | -8 | 246 | Sean Newcomb | 326.7 | 1.04 | -81 | 396 | Jordy Mercer | 505 | -6.60 | -109 |
97 | Justin Smoak | 147.2 | 13.70 | -50 | 247 | Archie Bradley | 189.5 | 0.89 | 58 | 397 | Ian Kennedy | 457.5 | -6.60 | -61 |
98 | Whit Merrifield | 70.6 | 13.63 | 27 | 248 | Nick Pivetta | 434.7 | 0.68 | -187 | 398 | Hunter Renfroe | 298 | -6.63 | 100 |
99 | Kevin Kiermaier | 159.3 | 13.54 | -60 | 249 | David Dahl | 247.4 | 0.67 | 2 | 399 | Matt Harvey | 367.8 | -6.65 | 31 |
100 | Josh Bell | 178.2 | 13.40 | -78 | 250 | Evan Gattis | 156.9 | 0.67 | 93 | 400 | Jimmie Sherfy | 550.2 | -6.77 | -150 |
101 | Daniel Murphy | 67.2 | 13.37 | 34 | 251 | Jed Lowrie | 427.1 | 0.61 | -176 | 401 | Raimel Tapia | 389.2 | -6.85 | 12 |
102 | Adrian Beltre | 158.9 | 13.28 | -57 | 252 | Felix Hernandez | 287.2 | 0.60 | -35 | 402 | Erick Fedde | 619.3 | -6.91 | -217 |
103 | Jake Lamb | 117.8 | 13.09 | -15 | 253 | Jake Faria | 239.6 | 0.49 | 13 | 403 | Kyle Freeland | 533.8 | -6.95 | -131 |
104 | Byron Buxton | 53 | 13.08 | 51 | 254 | Corey Dickerson | 216 | 0.45 | 38 | 404 | Nathan Karns | 483.5 | -6.99 | -80 |
105 | Evan Longoria | 198.7 | 13.01 | -94 | 255 | Michael Taylor | 217.8 | 0.43 | 37 | 405 | Robert Stephenson | 453.3 | -7.13 | -48 |
106 | Masahiro Tanaka | 104.4 | 12.96 | 2 | 256 | Alex Reyes | 258.8 | 0.42 | -3 | 406 | Matt Andriese | 477.2 | -7.14 | -71 |
107 | Shohei Ohtani | 74.7 | 12.93 | 32 | 257 | Tyler Anderson | 423.2 | 0.37 | -166 | 407 | JC Ramirez | 531.6 | -7.20 | -125 |
108 | Mike Moustakas | 109.8 | 12.79 | -2 | 258 | Hector Neris | 144.1 | 0.21 | 114 | 408 | Lonnie Chisenhall | 390.1 | -7.21 | 18 |
109 | Odubel Herrera | 212.4 | 12.34 | -103 | 259 | Ronald Acuna | 133.2 | 0.04 | 126 | 409 | Jose Urena | 415.6 | -7.23 | -7 |
110 | Brandon Morrow | 225.1 | 12.09 | -115 | 260 | Aaron Altherr | 251 | 0.04 | 9 | 410 | Homer Bailey | 531.8 | -7.27 | -122 |
111 | Jon Gray | 166.8 | 11.74 | -56 | 261 | Anthony Swarzak | 457.8 | -0.01 | -197 | 411 | Dominic Leone | 543.4 | -7.27 | -132 |
112 | Marcus Stroman | 122.4 | 11.69 | -10 | 262 | Mark Trumbo | 248.8 | -0.01 | 13 | 412 | Ryan Tepera | 598.4 | -7.27 | -186 |
113 | Trey Mancini | 158.4 | 11.37 | -45 | 263 | Brad Boxberger | 324.5 | -0.10 | -62 | 413 | Mark Leiter | 566.2 | -7.33 | -153 |
114 | Trevor Story | 115.1 | 11.28 | -1 | 264 | Jorge Soler | 472.8 | -0.13 | -209 | 414 | Steve Cishek | 524.6 | -7.35 | -111 |
115 | Cody Allen | 102.3 | 11.12 | 13 | 265 | Dustin Pedroia | 438 | -0.20 | -173 | 415 | Sam Dyson | 522.7 | -7.36 | -108 |
116 | Rafael Devers | 128.3 | 11.02 | -12 | 266 | Aaron Hicks | 237 | -0.21 | 29 | 416 | Jose Martinez | 279 | -7.45 | 137 |
117 | Jameson Taillon | 198.3 | 10.97 | -81 | 267 | Luke Gregerson | 369.8 | -0.25 | -103 | 417 | Michael Kopech | 326.9 | -7.75 | 90 |
118 | Jean Segura | 78.4 | 10.95 | 40 | 268 | Chase Anderson | 169.6 | -0.29 | 98 | 418 | Ross Stripling | 632.5 | -7.76 | -215 |
119 | Shin-Soo Choo | 253.4 | 10.87 | -134 | 269 | Andrew Heaney | 432.9 | -0.32 | -164 | 419 | Will Harris | 546.3 | -7.86 | -127 |
120 | Avisail Garcia | 192.2 | 10.78 | -72 | 270 | Brandon McCarthy | 443.8 | -0.34 | -174 | 420 | Jonathan Lucroy | 180 | -7.92 | 240 |
121 | Matt Olson | 120.7 | 10.66 | 0 | 271 | Addison Russell | 250.4 | -0.34 | 21 | 421 | Koda Glover | 621.2 | -7.97 | -200 |
122 | Rich Hill | 121.2 | 10.58 | 1 | 272 | Marco Estrada | 313.4 | -0.36 | -41 | 422 | Pedro Strop | 606.5 | -7.97 | -185 |
123 | Yulieski Gurriel | 207.5 | 10.51 | -85 | 273 | Jakob Junis | 385.7 | -0.40 | -113 | 423 | Mike Fiers | 529.4 | -7.99 | -106 |
124 | Travis Shaw | 94.6 | 10.24 | 29 | 274 | Anthony DeSclafani | 419.6 | -0.52 | -146 | 424 | Josh Tomlin | 453.5 | -8.00 | -30 |
125 | Adam Eaton | 155.1 | 10.03 | -30 | 275 | Chad Kuhl | 401.5 | -0.54 | -127 | 425 | Trevor Cahill | 566.4 | -8.03 | -141 |
126 | Eric Thames | 187.1 | 10.03 | -61 | 276 | Mike Leake | 324.3 | -0.57 | -48 | 426 | Collin McHugh | 334.4 | -8.06 | 92 |
127 | Gerrit Cole | 90.5 | 9.99 | 37 | 277 | Brandon Phillips | 373.2 | -0.58 | -96 | 427 | Nick Delmonico | 460.9 | -8.11 | -34 |
128 | David Peralta | 253.3 | 9.66 | -125 | 278 | Hunter Pence | 454.1 | -0.64 | -176 | 428 | Matt Boyd | 519.9 | -8.12 | -92 |
129 | Ender Inciarte | 118.5 | 9.59 | 11 | 279 | Mark Melancon | 177.1 | -0.65 | 102 | 429 | Curtis Granderson | 527 | -8.29 | -98 |
130 | Johnny Cueto | 151.1 | 9.39 | -21 | 280 | Matt Shoemaker | 332 | -0.72 | -52 | 430 | Lewis Brinson | 333.8 | -8.38 | 96 |
131 | Ryan Madson | 430 | 9.29 | -299 | 281 | Ivan Nova | 347.2 | -0.74 | -66 | 431 | Brad Miller | 459.9 | -8.46 | -29 |
132 | Gregory Polanco | 163.4 | 9.26 | -31 | 282 | Cheslor Cuthbert | 577.8 | -0.76 | -296 | 432 | A.J. Ramos | 364.7 | -8.57 | 67 |
133 | Buster Posey | 59.7 | 9.20 | 73 | 283 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 305.8 | -0.81 | -23 | 433 | Logan Forsythe | 427.5 | -8.60 | 6 |
134 | Chris Taylor | 91.7 | 8.94 | 42 | 284 | German Marquez | 336 | -0.86 | -52 | 434 | Seung Hwan Oh | 502.1 | -8.61 | -68 |
135 | Marcus Semien | 230.5 | 8.93 | -96 | 285 | Ketel Marte | 355.4 | -0.90 | -70 | 435 | Matt Moore | 441.5 | -8.62 | -7 |
136 | Blake Parker | 213.8 | 8.92 | -78 | 286 | Tyler Chatwood | 289.4 | -0.95 | -3 | 436 | Martin Prado | 551.4 | -8.66 | -115 |
137 | Maikel Franco | 236.6 | 8.90 | -100 | 287 | Pat Neshek | 514.9 | -1.01 | -228 | 437 | Jordan Zimmermann | 597.6 | -8.74 | -161 |
138 | Raisel Iglesias | 102.3 | 8.72 | 36 | 288 | Zack Wheeler | 440.2 | -1.04 | -152 | 438 | Ben Gamel | 424.8 | -8.79 | 13 |
139 | Justin Bour | 192.2 | 8.62 | -53 | 289 | Neil Walker | 411.5 | -1.10 | -123 | 439 | Addison Reed | 265.3 | -8.80 | 174 |
140 | Eugenio Suarez | 190.6 | 8.47 | -51 | 290 | Scooter Gennett | 197.6 | -1.13 | 92 | 440 | Dansby Swanson | 385.4 | -8.84 | 55 |
141 | Kyle Hendricks | 117.3 | 8.44 | 24 | 291 | Shane Greene | 242.5 | -1.18 | 49 | 441 | Steve Pearce | 551.1 | -8.89 | -110 |
142 | Ian Kinsler | 191.1 | 8.30 | -49 | 292 | Zack Cozart | 225.6 | -1.18 | 66 | 442 | Lucas Giolito | 224.6 | -8.96 | 217 |
143 | Javier Baez | 102.3 | 8.29 | 41 | 293 | Jharel Cotton | 397 | -1.22 | -104 | 443 | Jimmy Nelson | 292.1 | -8.98 | 151 |
144 | Luke Weaver | 110.1 | 8.27 | 34 | 294 | Albert Pujols | 311 | -1.25 | -17 | 444 | Trevor Williams | 475.2 | -9.13 | -31 |
145 | Miguel Sano | 97.7 | 8.18 | 47 | 295 | Justin Wilson | 575.1 | -1.33 | -280 | 445 | Russell Martin | 321 | -9.24 | 124 |
146 | Hanley Ramirez | 328.1 | 8.11 | -182 | 296 | Kyle Barraclough | 315.2 | -1.36 | -19 | 446 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 343.9 | -9.34 | 102 |
147 | Ozzie Albies | 145 | 8.04 | 2 | 297 | Amed Rosario | 232.8 | -1.43 | 64 | 447 | Jack Flaherty | 372.1 | -9.36 | 75 |
148 | Ryan Zimmerman | 126.2 | 7.97 | 22 | 298 | Julio Teheran | 238.5 | -1.48 | 60 | 448 | Brad Ziegler | 406.9 | -9.38 | 41 |
149 | Brandon Belt | 304.1 | 7.95 | -155 | 299 | A.J. Minter | 443.1 | -1.54 | -144 | 449 | Carlos Gonzalez | 287.7 | -9.49 | 161 |
150 | Didi Gregorius | 113.9 | 7.91 | 36 | 300 | Mike Montgomery | 364.6 | -1.55 | -65 | 450 | Trevor Hildenberger | 399.9 | -9.69 | 50 |
Players with the biggest negative differential - (my formula's interpretation of the Steamer Projections minus NFBC ADP) are the ones Steamer likes. Players with the biggest positive differentials are the ones NFBC drafters like. Keep in mind the differentials are not all created equal as those near the top carry much more weight, i.e., Stanton's minus 7 from nine to two, is worth $9 (or at least he's $9 more valuable per Steamer projections than No. 9 player Paul Goldschmidt.) Contrast that with 189th-ranked Josh Harrison worth $4.95, which is only $5.20 more than the 267th player (his NFBC ADP) worth -$.25. Nonetheless it's worth seeing who the outliers are for both sides.
Here are the top-150 players (by Steamer's ranks through my formula) sorted from most to least Steamer friendly relative to NFBC:
Rk | Name | ADP | $ | Diff | Rk | Name | ADP | $ | Diff | Rk | Name | ADP | $ | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
131 | Ryan Madson | 430 | 9.29 | -299 | 19 | Craig Kimbrel | 45.1 | 27.90 | -26 | 90 | Xander Bogaerts | 86.4 | 14.83 | 4 |
146 | Hanley Ramirez | 328.1 | 8.11 | -182 | 27 | Starling Marte | 50.8 | 25.57 | -24 | 18 | Corey Kluber | 13.5 | 28.43 | 5 |
55 | Andrew Miller | 210.2 | 19.23 | -155 | 73 | Yoenis Cespedes | 96.4 | 16.81 | -23 | 9 | Paul Goldschmidt | 4.3 | 34.17 | 5 |
149 | Brandon Belt | 304.1 | 7.95 | -155 | 32 | Nelson Cruz | 54.2 | 24.34 | -22 | 24 | Joey Votto | 18.5 | 26.52 | 6 |
119 | Shin-Soo Choo | 253.4 | 10.87 | -134 | 130 | Johnny Cueto | 151.1 | 9.39 | -21 | 14 | Charlie Blackmon | 8.4 | 31.38 | 6 |
128 | David Peralta | 253.3 | 9.66 | -125 | 30 | Marcell Ozuna | 48.3 | 24.64 | -18 | 85 | Roberto Osuna | 79.3 | 15.00 | 6 |
110 | Brandon Morrow | 225.1 | 12.09 | -115 | 26 | Jose Abreu | 42.8 | 25.95 | -17 | 31 | Stephen Strasburg | 25 | 24.54 | 6 |
109 | Odubel Herrera | 212.4 | 12.34 | -103 | 78 | Miguel Cabrera | 94.1 | 16.18 | -16 | 40 | Luis Severino | 33.3 | 22.52 | 7 |
137 | Maikel Franco | 236.6 | 8.90 | -100 | 22 | Kenley Jansen | 37.9 | 27.05 | -16 | 84 | Dallas Keuchel | 77.3 | 15.02 | 7 |
135 | Marcus Semien | 230.5 | 8.93 | -96 | 35 | Rhys Hoskins | 50.8 | 23.86 | -16 | 46 | Justin Verlander | 38 | 21.64 | 8 |
105 | Evan Longoria | 198.7 | 13.01 | -94 | 103 | Jake Lamb | 117.8 | 13.09 | -15 | 42 | Alex Bregman | 33.2 | 22.15 | 9 |
68 | Nomar Mazara | 160.5 | 17.40 | -93 | 57 | Wil Myers | 71.7 | 19.11 | -15 | 11 | Jose Altuve | 2.1 | 33.44 | 9 |
87 | Carlos Santana | 172.8 | 14.88 | -86 | 5 | Manny Machado | 19.1 | 35.56 | -14 | 23 | Carlos Correa | 13.9 | 26.73 | 9 |
123 | Yulieski Gurriel | 207.5 | 10.51 | -85 | 20 | Noah Syndergaard | 33.7 | 27.27 | -14 | 129 | Ender Inciarte | 118.5 | 9.59 | 11 |
117 | Jameson Taillon | 198.3 | 10.97 | -81 | 48 | Corey Knebel | 61.3 | 20.34 | -13 | 115 | Cody Allen | 102.3 | 11.12 | 13 |
61 | Jeff Samardzija | 140.1 | 18.16 | -79 | 116 | Rafael Devers | 128.3 | 11.02 | -12 | 52 | Corey Seager | 39 | 19.83 | 13 |
100 | Josh Bell | 178.2 | 13.40 | -78 | 51 | Jonathan Schoop | 62.8 | 20.10 | -12 | 50 | Carlos Carrasco | 36.2 | 20.23 | 14 |
136 | Blake Parker | 213.8 | 8.92 | -78 | 112 | Marcus Stroman | 122.4 | 11.69 | -10 | 36 | Freddie Freeman | 22.1 | 23.14 | 14 |
120 | Avisail Garcia | 192.2 | 10.78 | -72 | 89 | Lorenzo Cain | 99 | 14.85 | -10 | 33 | Aaron Judge | 17.6 | 24.30 | 15 |
63 | DJ LeMahieu | 129.7 | 17.96 | -67 | 76 | Justin Turner | 85.7 | 16.24 | -10 | 41 | Cody Bellinger | 24.5 | 22.36 | 17 |
80 | Adam Jones | 145.7 | 15.65 | -66 | 15 | Anthony Rizzo | 24.7 | 31.14 | -10 | 75 | Anthony Rendon | 57.8 | 16.36 | 17 |
126 | Eric Thames | 187.1 | 10.03 | -61 | 47 | Edwin Encarnacion | 56.6 | 20.35 | -10 | 43 | J.D. Martinez | 24.2 | 21.93 | 19 |
99 | Kevin Kiermaier | 159.3 | 13.54 | -60 | 44 | Chris Archer | 52.3 | 21.85 | -8 | 95 | Domingo Santana | 74.8 | 14.03 | 20 |
102 | Adrian Beltre | 158.9 | 13.28 | -57 | 34 | Andrew Benintendi | 42.2 | 23.98 | -8 | 72 | Yu Darvish | 51.5 | 16.84 | 21 |
111 | Jon Gray | 166.8 | 11.74 | -56 | 96 | Nick Castellanos | 103.7 | 13.84 | -8 | 67 | Zack Greinke | 45.6 | 17.57 | 21 |
59 | Ian Desmond | 114.4 | 18.47 | -55 | 21 | Josh Donaldson | 28.5 | 27.06 | -8 | 148 | Ryan Zimmerman | 126.2 | 7.97 | 22 |
139 | Justin Bour | 192.2 | 8.62 | -53 | 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | 9 | 43.09 | -7 | 79 | Elvis Andrus | 56.4 | 16.15 | 23 |
70 | David Price | 123.1 | 17.16 | -53 | 29 | Jacob deGrom | 34.8 | 24.77 | -6 | 49 | Madison Bumgarner | 26 | 20.30 | 23 |
140 | Eugenio Suarez | 190.6 | 8.47 | -51 | 64 | Khris Davis | 69.4 | 17.75 | -5 | 77 | Carlos Martinez | 53.9 | 16.22 | 23 |
97 | Justin Smoak | 147.2 | 13.70 | -50 | 16 | Francisco Lindor | 21.3 | 30.66 | -5 | 141 | Kyle Hendricks | 117.3 | 8.44 | 24 |
66 | Joey Gallo | 115.9 | 17.64 | -50 | 3 | Clayton Kershaw | 7 | 39.54 | -4 | 92 | Aaron Nola | 67.9 | 14.42 | 24 |
142 | Ian Kinsler | 191.1 | 8.30 | -49 | 60 | A.J. Pollock | 63.3 | 18.16 | -3 | 71 | Justin Upton | 46.6 | 16.88 | 24 |
113 | Trey Mancini | 158.4 | 11.37 | -45 | 74 | James Paxton | 77.3 | 16.45 | -3 | 98 | Whit Merrifield | 70.6 | 13.63 | 27 |
53 | Ken Giles | 98 | 19.60 | -45 | 28 | George Springer | 31 | 25.14 | -3 | 124 | Travis Shaw | 94.6 | 10.24 | 29 |
25 | Christian Yelich | 69 | 26.49 | -44 | 10 | Chris Sale | 12.8 | 33.54 | -3 | 107 | Shohei Ohtani | 74.7 | 12.93 | 32 |
69 | Rougned Odor | 110.9 | 17.40 | -42 | 13 | Kris Bryant | 15.5 | 31.47 | -3 | 94 | Tommy Pham | 61.4 | 14.03 | 33 |
91 | Sean Doolittle | 132.6 | 14.61 | -42 | 17 | Jose Ramirez | 19.5 | 28.68 | -3 | 101 | Daniel Murphy | 67.2 | 13.37 | 34 |
93 | Kyle Seager | 134.2 | 14.42 | -41 | 108 | Mike Moustakas | 109.8 | 12.79 | -2 | 62 | Dee Gordon | 28.1 | 17.98 | 34 |
83 | Jon Lester | 119.8 | 15.02 | -37 | 7 | Bryce Harper | 8.4 | 34.91 | -1 | 144 | Luke Weaver | 110.1 | 8.27 | 34 |
82 | Eddie Rosario | 118.4 | 15.16 | -36 | 4 | Nolan Arenado | 5.3 | 37.99 | -1 | 138 | Raisel Iglesias | 102.3 | 8.72 | 36 |
58 | Edwin Diaz | 90.9 | 18.73 | -33 | 114 | Trevor Story | 115.1 | 11.28 | -1 | 150 | Didi Gregorius | 113.9 | 7.91 | 36 |
132 | Gregory Polanco | 163.4 | 9.26 | -31 | 8 | Mookie Betts | 8.6 | 34.83 | -1 | 127 | Gerrit Cole | 90.5 | 9.99 | 37 |
45 | Jose Quintana | 76.3 | 21.74 | -31 | 38 | Brian Dozier | 38.5 | 22.87 | -1 | 118 | Jean Segura | 78.4 | 10.95 | 40 |
81 | Yasiel Puig | 112.2 | 15.31 | -31 | 1 | Mike Trout | 1.1 | 46.78 | 0 | 86 | Robbie Ray | 45.9 | 14.94 | 40 |
125 | Adam Eaton | 155.1 | 10.03 | -30 | 121 | Matt Olson | 120.7 | 10.66 | 0 | 143 | Javier Baez | 102.3 | 8.29 | 41 |
39 | Eric Hosmer | 68.4 | 22.70 | -29 | 122 | Rich Hill | 121.2 | 10.58 | 1 | 134 | Chris Taylor | 91.7 | 8.94 | 42 |
54 | Robinson Cano | 83 | 19.48 | -29 | 6 | Trea Turner | 5.2 | 35.55 | 1 | 145 | Miguel Sano | 97.7 | 8.18 | 47 |
37 | Aroldis Chapman | 64.9 | 23.05 | -28 | 12 | Max Scherzer | 10.5 | 32.22 | 2 | 104 | Byron Buxton | 53 | 13.08 | 51 |
65 | Felipe Rivero | 92.5 | 17.67 | -28 | 106 | Masahiro Tanaka | 104.4 | 12.96 | 2 | 88 | Gary Sanchez | 20.7 | 14.86 | 67 |
56 | Andrew McCutchen | 83.3 | 19.19 | -27 | 147 | Ozzie Albies | 145 | 8.04 | 2 | 133 | Buster Posey | 59.7 | 9.20 | 73 |
Again, note the lack of catcher adjustment which is why Buster Posey and Gary Sanchez are the two most NFBC-friendly. Relief pitchers are also tricky because some of Steamer's projections for saves are a little wacky and out of step with who NFBC drafters think is likely to secure the job. Still, for hitters and workhorse starting pitchers you can see where the two approaches diverge.