Like last year, I ran the Steamer Projections through my imperfect dollar-value formula to generate rankings and dollar values. This year, the NFBC ADP is in the Steamer spreadsheet so it was easy to include that for comparison. A few caveats are in order: (1) The ADP doesn't line up with the order of the hitters because it's the NFBC's overall list, and that includes pitchers; (2) The dollar values reflect a 12-team NFBC style format and my using a 67/33 hitter/pitcher split; and (3) I made no adjustment for positional scarcity, i.e., players are simply valued on their stats whether they're catchers or designated hitters. (I'll do subsequent posts at some point with catchers adjusted and pitchers included.)
Here are the results:
| Name | ADP | $ | Name | ADP | $ | Name | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 1.1 | 46.78 | Brandon Belt | 304.1 | 7.95 | Albert Almora Jr. | 375.9 | -5.42 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 9 | 43.09 | Didi Gregorius | 113.9 | 7.91 | Jose Pirela | 387.1 | -5.52 |
| Nolan Arenado | 5.3 | 37.99 | Delino DeShields | 220.8 | 7.77 | Mikie Mahtook | 335 | -6.05 |
| Manny Machado | 19.1 | 35.56 | Brett Gardner | 180.8 | 7.69 | J.P. Crawford | 378.6 | -6.14 |
| Trea Turner | 5.2 | 35.55 | Ryan Braun | 111.9 | 7.67 | Jordy Mercer | 505 | -6.60 |
| Bryce Harper | 8.4 | 34.91 | Ian Happ | 139.7 | 7.63 | Hunter Renfroe | 298 | -6.63 |
| Mookie Betts | 8.6 | 34.83 | Yoan Moncada | 134.3 | 7.57 | Raimel Tapia | 389.2 | -6.85 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 4.3 | 34.17 | Chris Davis | 248.1 | 7.34 | Lonnie Chisenhall | 390.1 | -7.21 |
| Jose Altuve | 2.1 | 33.44 | Kole Calhoun | 285.4 | 7.21 | Jose Martinez | 279 | -7.45 |
| Kris Bryant | 15.5 | 31.47 | Matt Carpenter | 185.4 | 7.08 | Jonathan Lucroy | 180 | -7.92 |
| Charlie Blackmon | 8.4 | 31.38 | Jay Bruce | 163.8 | 7.06 | Nick Delmonico | 460.9 | -8.11 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 24.7 | 31.14 | Jorge Polanco | 204.8 | 7.04 | Curtis Granderson | 527 | -8.29 |
| Francisco Lindor | 21.3 | 30.66 | Paul DeJong | 150.6 | 6.98 | Lewis Brinson | 333.8 | -8.38 |
| Jose Ramirez | 19.5 | 28.68 | Willson Contreras | 53.7 | 6.97 | Brad Miller | 459.9 | -8.46 |
| Josh Donaldson | 28.5 | 27.06 | Cesar Hernandez | 252.7 | 6.75 | Logan Forsythe | 427.5 | -8.60 |
| Carlos Correa | 13.9 | 26.73 | Gregory Bird | 154.9 | 6.67 | Martin Prado | 551.4 | -8.66 |
| Joey Votto | 18.5 | 26.52 | Josh Reddick | 264.1 | 6.64 | Ben Gamel | 424.8 | -8.79 |
| Christian Yelich | 69 | 26.49 | Manuel Margot | 149.8 | 6.63 | Dansby Swanson | 385.4 | -8.84 |
| Jose Abreu | 42.8 | 25.95 | Jose Peraza | 201.7 | 6.12 | Steve Pearce | 551.1 | -8.89 |
| Starling Marte | 50.8 | 25.57 | Jackie Bradley Jr. | 282.7 | 5.82 | Russell Martin | 321 | -9.24 |
| George Springer | 31 | 25.14 | Kyle Schwarber | 185.1 | 5.66 | Carlos Gonzalez | 287.7 | -9.49 |
| Marcell Ozuna | 48.3 | 24.64 | Dexter Fowler | 254.6 | 5.49 | Chad Pinder | 439.3 | -9.74 |
| Nelson Cruz | 54.2 | 24.34 | Matt Chapman | 280.6 | 5.01 | Miguel Andujar | 469.4 | -9.90 |
| Aaron Judge | 17.6 | 24.30 | Billy Hamilton | 58.6 | 4.98 | Brian McCann | 215.2 | -9.93 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 42.2 | 23.98 | Josh Harrison | 267.1 | 4.95 | Jose Iglesias | 519.6 | -9.99 |
| Rhys Hoskins | 50.8 | 23.86 | Salvador Perez | 98.7 | 4.95 | Wilson Ramos | 166.3 | -10.26 |
| Freddie Freeman | 22.1 | 23.14 | Scott Schebler | 276.8 | 4.87 | Jeimer Candelario | 337.7 | -10.29 |
| Brian Dozier | 38.5 | 22.87 | Michael Brantley | 250.5 | 4.84 | Seth Smith | 679 | -10.37 |
| Eric Hosmer | 68.4 | 22.70 | Starlin Castro | 258.5 | 4.65 | Robinson Chirinos | 266.7 | -10.51 |
| Cody Bellinger | 24.5 | 22.36 | Kendrys Morales | 297.7 | 4.38 | Jarrod Dyson | 430.3 | -10.69 |
| Alex Bregman | 33.2 | 22.15 | Michael Conforto | 170.3 | 4.20 | Boog Powell | 576.2 | -11.18 |
| J.D. Martinez | 24.2 | 21.93 | Mitch Haniger | 212.1 | 4.03 | Austin Hedges | 273.4 | -11.28 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 56.6 | 20.35 | Willie Calhoun | 271.4 | 3.99 | James McCann | 309.7 | -11.40 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 62.8 | 20.10 | Andrelton Simmons | 187.3 | 3.92 | Colin Moran | 502.8 | -11.73 |
| Corey Seager | 39 | 19.83 | Jedd Gyorko | 355.4 | 3.85 | Matt Duffy | 478.3 | -11.95 |
| Robinson Cano | 83 | 19.48 | Orlando Arcia | 189.4 | 3.66 | Yangervis Solarte | 274.8 | -12.13 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 83.3 | 19.19 | Randal Grichuk | 356.7 | 3.43 | Derek Dietrich | 514 | -12.16 |
| Wil Myers | 71.7 | 19.11 | Todd Frazier | 287.4 | 3.16 | Alcides Escobar | 546.1 | -12.18 |
| Ian Desmond | 114.4 | 18.47 | Jason Kipnis | 260.2 | 3.13 | Christian Vazquez | 285.6 | -12.22 |
| A.J. Pollock | 63.3 | 18.16 | Bradley Zimmer | 204.9 | 2.97 | Wilmer Flores | 322.6 | -12.35 |
| Dee Gordon | 28.1 | 17.98 | Joe Panik | 376.5 | 2.96 | Chris Owings | 229.6 | -12.44 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 129.7 | 17.96 | J.T. Realmuto | 103.4 | 2.68 | Johan Camargo | 442.1 | -12.52 |
| Khris Davis | 69.4 | 17.75 | Kevin Pillar | 318.3 | 2.57 | Chase Headley | 407.3 | -12.59 |
| Joey Gallo | 115.9 | 17.64 | Mitch Moreland | 402 | 2.45 | Derek Fisher | 421.3 | -12.84 |
| Nomar Mazara | 160.5 | 17.40 | Adam Duvall | 170 | 2.42 | Austin Barnes | 186.3 | -13.05 |
| Rougned Odor | 110.9 | 17.40 | Max Kepler | 273 | 2.34 | Carlos Gomez | 340 | -13.19 |
| Justin Upton | 46.6 | 16.88 | Joe Mauer | 392 | 1.47 | Austin Jackson | 581.4 | -13.21 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 96.4 | 16.81 | Brandon Crawford | 327.9 | 1.27 | Travis d'Arnaud | 290.9 | -13.28 |
| Anthony Rendon | 57.8 | 16.36 | Marwin Gonzalez | 114.7 | 1.23 | Brandon Drury | 419.2 | -13.28 |
| Justin Turner | 85.7 | 16.24 | Stephen Piscotty | 297.6 | 1.08 | Cameron Maybin | 374.3 | -13.30 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 94.1 | 16.18 | David Dahl | 247.4 | 0.67 | Jesse Winker | 323.7 | -13.37 |
| Elvis Andrus | 56.4 | 16.15 | Evan Gattis | 156.9 | 0.67 | Matt Davidson | 451 | -13.42 |
| Adam Jones | 145.7 | 15.65 | Jed Lowrie | 427.1 | 0.61 | Tyler Flowers | 303 | -13.46 |
| Yasiel Puig | 112.2 | 15.31 | Corey Dickerson | 216 | 0.45 | Dixon Machado | 599.2 | -13.54 |
| Eddie Rosario | 118.4 | 15.16 | Michael Taylor | 217.8 | 0.43 | Paulo Orlando | 685.5 | -13.59 |
| Carlos Santana | 172.8 | 14.88 | Ronald Acuna | 133.2 | 0.04 | Jon Jay | 616.4 | -13.60 |
| Gary Sanchez | 20.7 | 14.86 | Aaron Altherr | 251 | 0.04 | Freddy Galvis | 362.9 | -13.75 |
| Lorenzo Cain | 99 | 14.85 | Mark Trumbo | 248.8 | -0.01 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 423.4 | -13.78 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 86.4 | 14.83 | Jorge Soler | 472.8 | -0.13 | Denard Span | 447 | -13.96 |
| Kyle Seager | 134.2 | 14.42 | Dustin Pedroia | 438 | -0.20 | Gerardo Parra | 333.2 | -14.00 |
| Tommy Pham | 61.4 | 14.03 | Aaron Hicks | 237 | -0.21 | Matt Holliday | 657.9 | -14.10 |
| Domingo Santana | 74.8 | 14.03 | Addison Russell | 250.4 | -0.34 | Gleyber Torres | 280.5 | -14.14 |
| Nick Castellanos | 103.7 | 13.84 | Brandon Phillips | 373.2 | -0.58 | Mike Napoli | 545.3 | -14.34 |
| Justin Smoak | 147.2 | 13.70 | Hunter Pence | 454.1 | -0.64 | Ronald Torreyes | 495.1 | -14.59 |
| Whit Merrifield | 70.6 | 13.63 | Cheslor Cuthbert | 577.8 | -0.76 | Kennys Vargas | 610.7 | -15.01 |
| Kevin Kiermaier | 159.3 | 13.54 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 305.8 | -0.81 | Jason Castro | 374.8 | -15.02 |
| Josh Bell | 178.2 | 13.40 | Ketel Marte | 355.4 | -0.90 | Raul Mondesi | 334.3 | -15.11 |
| Daniel Murphy | 67.2 | 13.37 | Neil Walker | 411.5 | -1.10 | Leonys Martin | 495.4 | -15.15 |
| Adrian Beltre | 158.9 | 13.28 | Scooter Gennett | 197.6 | -1.13 | Enrique Hernandez | 514.1 | -15.22 |
| Jake Lamb | 117.8 | 13.09 | Zack Cozart | 225.6 | -1.18 | Austin Meadows | 514.2 | -15.27 |
| Byron Buxton | 53 | 13.08 | Albert Pujols | 311 | -1.25 | Yasmani Grandal | 226.6 | -15.42 |
| Evan Longoria | 198.7 | 13.01 | Amed Rosario | 232.8 | -1.43 | Welington Castillo | 174.6 | -15.48 |
| Mike Moustakas | 109.8 | 12.79 | Jason Heyward | 408.2 | -1.64 | Adam Engel | 669.2 | -15.50 |
| Odubel Herrera | 212.4 | 12.34 | Melky Cabrera | 303.2 | -1.94 | Tucker Barnhart | 326.6 | -15.69 |
| Trey Mancini | 158.4 | 11.37 | Eduardo Nunez | 129.9 | -2.09 | Hunter Dozier | 587.7 | -15.76 |
| Trevor Story | 115.1 | 11.28 | Ben Zobrist | 450.9 | -2.24 | Yunel Escobar | 649 | -15.77 |
| Rafael Devers | 128.3 | 11.02 | Kolten Wong | 377.2 | -2.29 | Francisco Cervelli | 437.3 | -15.79 |
| Jean Segura | 78.4 | 10.95 | Tim Beckham | 270 | -2.99 | Yolmer Sanchez | 422.2 | -16.24 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 253.4 | 10.87 | Steven Souza Jr. | 180.5 | -3.00 | Eduardo Escobar | 429.5 | -16.48 |
| Avisail Garcia | 192.2 | 10.78 | Devon Travis | 404.6 | -3.01 | Matt Wieters | 319.7 | -16.52 |
| Matt Olson | 120.7 | 10.66 | Yadier Molina | 148.7 | -3.03 | Adeiny Hechavarria | 535.4 | -16.62 |
| Yulieski Gurriel | 207.5 | 10.51 | Jorge Bonifacio | 399.1 | -3.07 | Cory Spangenberg | 384.3 | -16.86 |
| Travis Shaw | 94.6 | 10.24 | Jonathan Villar | 187.8 | -3.25 | Alex Avila | 416.8 | -17.08 |
| Adam Eaton | 155.1 | 10.03 | Joc Pederson | 369.2 | -3.29 | Dominic Smith | 410.2 | -17.12 |
| Eric Thames | 187.1 | 10.03 | Adam Frazier | 402 | -3.63 | Martin Maldonado | 399.6 | -17.24 |
| David Peralta | 253.3 | 9.66 | Yasmany Tomas | 315.8 | -3.80 | Robbie Grossman | 636.7 | -17.27 |
| Ender Inciarte | 118.5 | 9.59 | Tim Anderson | 193.1 | -3.84 | Chris Iannetta | 297 | -17.45 |
| Gregory Polanco | 163.4 | 9.26 | Lucas Duda | 445.4 | -3.93 | Carlos Asuaje | 605.5 | -17.79 |
| Buster Posey | 59.7 | 9.20 | Victor Martinez | 552.6 | -3.94 | J.T. Riddle | 673 | -18.20 |
| Chris Taylor | 91.7 | 8.94 | Nick Markakis | 428.7 | -4.06 | Luis Valbuena | 538.7 | -18.25 |
| Marcus Semien | 230.5 | 8.93 | Logan Morrison | 286.8 | -4.25 | Jose Reyes | 315.4 | -18.46 |
| Maikel Franco | 236.6 | 8.90 | Yonder Alonso | 306.8 | -4.35 | Stephen Vogt | 341 | -18.48 |
| Justin Bour | 192.2 | 8.62 | Troy Tulowitzki | 380.3 | -4.41 | Matt Adams | 467.8 | -18.52 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 190.6 | 8.47 | Austin Hays | 361.3 | -4.60 | Magneuris Sierra | 555 | -18.62 |
| Ian Kinsler | 191.1 | 8.30 | Alex Gordon | 517.3 | -4.74 | Brandon Nimmo | 525.2 | -18.84 |
| Javier Baez | 102.3 | 8.29 | Ryon Healy | 192.9 | -4.76 | Shohei Ohtani | 75 | -18.91 |
| Miguel Sano | 97.7 | 8.18 | Mike Zunino | 163.9 | -4.85 | Daniel Robertson | 692.7 | -19.03 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 328.1 | 8.11 | Nick Williams | 271.1 | -5.22 | Yan Gomes | 384.9 | -19.10 |
| Ozzie Albies | 145 | 8.04 | C.J. Cron | 394.8 | -5.25 | Jake Marisnick | 527.9 | -19.54 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 126.2 | 7.97 | Matt Joyce | 492.7 | -5.32 | Bruce Maxwell | 456.1 | -19.58 |
Steamer apparently likes Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Christian Yelich, Starling Marte, Eric Hosmer, Ian Desmond, Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara, among others, more than the NFBC drafters. It dislikes Jose Altuve, Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, Dee Gordon, Justin Upton, Elvis Andrus and Byron Buxton, among others, relative to NFBC ADP.
Here are some players NFBC drafters are taking on whom Steamer was especially low, though a lot of that has to do with playing time projections:
| Player | ADP | $ |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Alfaro | 254.3 | -23.10 |
| Keon Broxton | 285.3 | -25.12 |
| Matt Kemp | 290.8 | -33.48 |
| Victor Robles | 313.3 | -27.55 |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 318.4 | -26.85 |
| Francisco Mejia | 345.6 | -29.22 |
| Mallex Smith | 347.7 | -19.69 |
| Chance Sisco | 348.6 | -22.12 |
| Scott Kingery | 349.4 | -27.83 |
| Kurt Suzuki | 349.6 | -19.74 |
| Hernan Perez | 359.6 | -22.18 |
| Manny Pina | 364.5 | -22.84 |
| Ryan McMahon | 370.3 | -26.11 |
| Nick Senzel | 384.4 | -34.83 |
| Jose Bautista | 384.4 | -34.85 |
| Mark Reynolds | 384.8 | -34.84 |
| Dustin Fowler | 404.3 | -30.86 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 430.4 | -27.38 |
| Wilmer Difo | 442 | -21.13 |
| Tom Murphy | 445.8 | -26.27 |
| Franklin Barreto | 457.2 | -28.72 |
| Clint Frazier | 464.4 | -26.51 |
| Charlie Tilson | 465.9 | -33.34 |
| Brett Phillips | 471.3 | -33.31 |
| Aledmys Diaz | 474.8 | -20.45 |
| Caleb Joseph | 488.9 | -21.77 |
| Yandy Diaz | 489 | -20.49 |
| Cameron Rupp | 492.6 | -21.71 |
| Adam Lind | 492.8 | -34.83 |
| Devin Mesoraco | 495.3 | -20.56 |
For example, Matt Kemp is projected for 13 ABs for some reason and Keon Broxton only 134. Even players like Yasiel Puig, on whom Steamer is relatively high, gets only 447 at-bats. As good as Steamer has been, you're better off using it as a basis for cross-referencing with your own rankings rather than a wholesale substitute.