After several years of playing DFS on DraftKings, I've fine-tuned my approach in 2017. I create one lineup each week for the Sunday main slate and submit it hundreds of times into low-priced Double-ups and 50-50s. This way, I avoid both the randomness of Head-to-Heads and the sharks of the DFS community. My goal each week is to create a better lineup than half of my fellow cash players. If I do, then I double my money. If not, then I lo
I'm 6-1 utilizing this approach so far in 2017, to the tune of many thousands of dollars. (Alas, I have yet to win a GPP, so I've given most of it back on those, but that's the point of cash games IMHO, to create bankroll.) Anyway, given the success I'm having in cash, I thought it time that I share my thought process in a lineup creation with my Rotowire friends.
Here's what I'm thinking for Week 8 cash games on DraftKings, for the Sunday main slate:
Andy Dalton, $5,700 and Joe Mixon, $4,700 are both priced far too low. Don't agree? Here, check out Rotowire's NFL Odds page - a must-use DFS tool each week. It has Cincy's implied team total at 26.25, fourth-highest on the slate. Hence, Cincy is going to score 3-4 TDs. Still skeptical? Check out the Colts defense. They're 30th in DVOA for good reason: the last 4 weeks, they've been lit up by DeShone Kizer (3 TDs), Russell Wilson (295 yards, 2 TDs in a 46-18 rout), a one-legged Marcus Mariota who couldn't score a TD against Cleveland the following week (305 yards, 1 TD), and Blake Bortles (330 yards, TD). Even Vontae Davis (PFF rating 44) is only a name nowadays. Starting Dalton and Mixon together might feel weird given the negative correlation, but I'm not trying to put up 200 points, just finish in the top half. Starting these two together just about guarantees me 3-4 TDs at a total of just $10,400.
A.J. Green is also enticing given the matchup. But he's $8,600, I'll have exposure to him through Dalton, and the Bengals passing tree is getting a little broader with first-round rookie John Ross returning.
The Bucs, like the Colts, are a dumpster-fire on defense, ranking dead last in DVOA. With Brent Grimes out on Sunday, the Bucs have 8 players starting in their base defense with a PFF rating of 58 or under, including the entire secondary. Basically, every player on the back end of the defense is someone an offensive coordinator would look to pick on. It's no surprise Tyrod Taylor had his best game of the season against the Bucs last week, and even Bears castoff Deonte Thompson looked useful. Unlike the Eagles wideouts, whose prices are all inflated in a good matchup against the bad Niners secondary (Alshon Jeffrery is $6,700, even Nelson Agholor is $5,500), Devin Funchess, $5,900 and Kelvin Benjamin, $6,400 are priced like a normal week. It's hard to imagine Cam Newton failing in this spot, and unless Christian McCaffrey goes ham, it's equally tough to see anyone besides Funchess and Benjamin being the beneficiaries of Newton's success. I'll probably be starting both Panthers wideouts in cash this week.
Nobody at running back excites me too much this week. Jordan Howard faces a reverse-funnel Saints defense (6th in DVOA against pass, 29th against run), but $6,800 is a bit pricey in cash for a guy on a bad offense who hasn't been getting targets (just 1 target the past 3 games). Mark Ingram is up to $7,400 after costing less than 5K most of the year. Ezekiel Elliott is also the highest-priced he's been all year. LeGarrette Blount is a good bet to score as the goal-line back on a double-digit, home favorite, but it's a three-man committee in Philly, and Blount does nothing through the air. As much as I don't like buying anyone off their best game of the year, I can't help but come back to LeSean McCoy, $8,700. As good as Khalil Mack is, the Raiders defense is still bottom-five in DVOA, and much of the problem is at linebacker. Averaging nearly 7 targets per game, expect the Bills to exploit McCoy out of the backfield as well as on the ground.
On defense, nobody jumps off the page at me this week. I'm not adverse to punting here if I need the salary, but only if I'm at least semi-confident my defense won't give me negative points. As I skim my team, I realize I have no Eagles players, and they're in a smash spot at home against a winless Niners team having to travel across the country for a 1:00 game. The Eagles front-7 is dominant, and they're certain to get some sacks, with a greater chance of turnovers and a return TD than probably anyone else. I'll pencil in Eagles D, $3,800, bearing in mind I could switch that if I need some salary relief.
My lineup now looks like this:
QB: Dalton, $5,700
RB: Mixon, $4,700
RB: McCoy, $8,700
WR: Funchess, $5,900
WR: Benjamin, $6,400
WR:
TE:
Flex:
D: Eagles, $3,800.
That leaves me $14,700 left for a WR, Flex, and TE, $4,850 each.
Now's a good time to go back to Rotowire's NFL Odds page. Which teams are going to score? Where are the points coming from?
With the two highest ITTs on the slate, New England and Philly are going to put up points. Given the prices, though, I'm not sure how I can get exposure to the Pats. Dion Lewis is a decent value at $4,600, but the Patriots backfield is a four-headed monster, drastically lowering the floor of all four guys. Rob Gronkowski and Zach Ertz are each over $7K, which would force me to go dumpster-diving at two other positions.
Perusing the tight ends, Hunter Henry, $4,800 and Jordan Reed, $4,700 are solid values in situations where each team should be throwing in the second half. But the passing trees in San Diego and Washington are both quite broad, and I see Tyler Kroft at $3,000. I don't particularly want a third Bengal, but I might need the savings. Let's look at other positions.
A stud receiver or running back isn't an option for the same reason I couldn't do Gronk or Ertz. Looking at the mid-salary guys, Keenan Allen at $7,300 jumps out. But that would force me to go Kroft at TE and leave just $4,500 for my flex.
Amari Cooper, $6,600 and Michael Crabtree, $6,300 are options against a Buffalo defense that will be missing half of its starting secondary. But Cooper is like Aaron Judge - he either hits it out of the park or whiffs - making him more of a GPP play.
Josh Doctson, $3,900 is certainly an option. We just don't see starting receivers on good offenses priced this low. My problem here is that Washington has so many guys to throw to - Doctson, Jamison Crowder, Ryan Grant, Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, and Chris Thompson all come to mind - and Terrelle Pryor plays the same position as Doctson, "X," and has not gone away. I'd play Doctson only if it enabled me to play an expensive stud in another position who I really wanted to "cram in."
DeSean Jackson, $5,100 has gotten between 6 and 9 targets each game this year, and he's been priced this low only one other week. If the Panthers are going to score the way I believe, then the Bucs will be throwing a lot, too. That's what Tampa should be doing anyway, as Carolina is much better against the rush (5th in DVOA) than the pass (15th), especially with Luke Kuechly set to return. D-Jax has been pretty solid each week, and though Jameis Winston keeps missing him on deep balls, maybe that means they're due to connect. Let's pencil in Jackson at $5,100.
QB: Dalton, $5,700
RB: Mixon, $4,700
RB: McCoy, $8,700
WR: Funchess, $5,900
WR: Benjamin, $6,400
WR: D-Jax, $5,100
TE:
Flex:
D: Eagles, $3,800.
This leaves me $9,700 for 2 spots. If I play Kroft at TE, then I'll have $6,700 for a flex, i.e. Cooper or Crabtree. If I play Henry or Reed at TE, I'd have less than $5K for flex, which leaves me with someone like Henry or Reed. Or I could go with a cheaper defense to improve that flex spot. I haven't decided yet, so let's see what injury news breaks between now and Sunday morning.
Anyway ... that's the thought process, friends. Basically, my cash lineup is an effort to exploit solid matchups, make solid plays (think line drives, not home-run swings), avoid doing anything stupid, and finish in the top half.
Good luck this week.