All right, so I have your attention, but before you send me the number of a good therapist (I'm not denying I need one), I want to share my reasoning with why I recently passed on David Johnson when getting the top pick in a draft last week.
Johnson was a fantasy superstar last year, as he posted 2,118 total yards and 20 total TDs, so why shouldn't things be better this year? I have two main arguments: the team's overall offense, and Johnson himself.
The Cards spent plenty of time in the red zone in 2016, as evidenced by them scoring 418 points, good for sixth-best in the NFL, while Johnson found pay dirt a whopping 20 times. The offense is facing some potentially significant regression. With 38-year-old Carson Palmer coming off his lowest completion percentage since 2011, along with a four-year-low 7.1 yards per pass attempt, the immobile signal-caller seems as if he's nearing the end of the road as a high-quality QB.
In addition, 34-year-old Larry Fitzgerald faded badly down the stretch in each of the last two years, and he's quickly nearing the end of the line. Meanwhile, aside from John Brown, who's far from a lock as a game changer, the team has questionable depth at receiver.
Finally, the Cards lost OG Evan Mathis, weakening their line. Overall, the result will likely be a declining offense, and more importantly, one that defenses will go into this year completely selling out to shut down Johnson.
Defenses probably will be willing to take their chances letting Palmer try to beat them, and should Palmer suffer an injury from being a sitting duck in the pocket too long, the offense would potentially go into freefall. Aside from the likelihood of increased defensive focus on the RB, I just don't see him getting enough red zone work to have another massive TD total.
The second argument has little to do with Johnson's talent, as I'm sure we agree that he's an amazing player. However, between seeing 413 total rushes and targets last year, there's a fair chance he'll feel the effects of the massive workload he handled.
Even as the 2016 season came to a close, after rushing for 4.41 yards per carry over his first 12 games, he rushed for 3.6 yards per carry the rest of the way, clearly showing that he was wearing down from the heavy usage.
Furthermore, Bruce Arians keeps talking up the idea of increasing his work load even more this year, which is music to the ears of fantasy managers, but between the possibility (as mentioned earlier) of defenses selling out to stop him, along with the potential after-effects of last year's usage (with even more work projected this year), this isn't looking like a recipe for success. Even if he starts out the season strong, I have concerns about his performance in a second straight year of excessive usage.
Now we get to where the rubber meets the road. I've already said that I prefer Le'Veon Bell as the first pick, especially because he plays in a diverse offense, but what would I do if faced with the choice of taking Johnson in a draft?
Personally, I would draft him and then try to make a post-draft trade for LeSean McCoy (or another top RB option) and upgrading at WR (maybe flip my No. 3 for a No. 2?). Since many won't waver on their stance as Johnson as the best fantasy player on the planet, I'd imagine I'd be able to swing a great deal- especially if my entire league knew I was trading him.
Now, you can feel free to send me the number of that therapist!