While we spend so much time looking at the ADP risers in fantasy football drafts, the fallers, more often than not, warrant the same amount of attention. Sure, some of the fallers we see are injury related, but this early in the process, most of the falling has to do with personal preferences and speculation. Maybe a coach makes an off-handed comment about giving someone a few more targets and suddenly the WR2 on that roster starts to drop. Some of the speculation can be on target while a lot of it is pure conjecture that never comes to fruition. It's up to you, the diligent fantasy owner, to do the necessary research to figure out whether a guy is sliding down for a legitimate reason or not. If his slide in the ranks is relatively unfounded, then great; that just means you can grab him at a bargain discount.
Now, a lot of the guys listed below aren't players that are going to fall off people's radar at all. Each one of them should be drafted in a standard 12-team, league. But if you can get one of them a round or two later than where they're listed, then that should be a quality bargain. They're all going toi have some semblance of value come year end, but it's the dividends they pay in relation to where you drafted them that matters most.
Trent Richardson, RB CLE (-8.3|PERCENT|) – Richardson has the ability to be a major player in the NFL at some point. The question on everyone's mind though is when. Will it happen right from the onset? Some are saying that because of his coaches' past experiences with running backs (Pat Shurmer with Steven Jackson; Brad Childress and Adrian Peterson) that he is going to be a workhorse, and while that may be true, is the offensive line strong enough and is the quarterback good enough to keep defenses from just stacking eight in the box and eliminating the run? When the mock drafts began, Richardson was one of the top five coming off the board and has since fallen to seventh with both Ryan Mathews and Aaron Rodgers leapfrogging him. There's definitely some hesitation with relying so heavily on a rookie running back in the fantasy world, that it wouldn't be a shock to see him creep down the ranks a little further. If he does, then you just might have yourself a bargain if the hype is for real.
Miles Austin, WR DAL (-1.4|PERCENT|) – The hamstring injury last year did a lot more than just keep Austin from playing a full schedule. It afforded other players the opportunity to build a rapport, or re-kindle in the case of Jason Witten, with Tony Romo who then realized that he had other quality weapons at his disposal. The coaches were more eager to use the ground game and suddenly Dez Bryant becoming less of a malcontent and more of a favored target. Not to mention the emergence ofLaurent Robinson who is being replaced this season byAndre Holmes. This isn't to say that Austin will continue to drop off, but with a better run/pass split and more targets to Bryant, Witten and Holmes, he could start to slip down draft boards a little more.
Fred Jackson, RB BUF (-1.7|PERCENT|) – This is simply going to come down to age, speed and health. Jackson has been a huge asset these past two years, but when he got hurt last season, C.J. Spiller took center stage and had some bright, shining moments out on the field. Now Jackson is back, armed with a two-year contract extension and is supposed to go back to his normal workload. But at 31 years old, there is definitely some concern and there's a chance that his workload gets lightened in an effort to keep his legs fresh. That concern is why he is seeing a bit of a drop in the ADP trend while Spiller starts creeping just a little bit. We won't know until further into practice and the season as to just how much Spiller is going to steal, but if concern starts early enough, it could drive Jackson down to bargain-land.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAX (-9.0|PERCENT|) – The bottom line is that, as of yesterday, coach Mike Mularkey has no idea if MJD will even show up when camp opens. Chances are slim right now. Super slim. While MJD remains a top five overall pick right now, his stock id dropping with each and every reminder of how Chris Johnson fared after his holdout last season and there is little chance that he maintains his spot in the ADP rankings while he is sitting out. Of course, if his stock drops far enough but still comes back in time for the season, then you could have quite the late first/early second round steal.
Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG (0.5|PERCENT|) – while we haven't see a reduction in ADP rank just yet, you can probably expect one coming soon what with the recent foot surgery, the emergence of Victor Cruz and a little unknown guy named Rueben Randle. Speculation from Cruz himself has Nicks being ready in time for Week 1, but unless Cruz has some sort of medical diploma hanging in his locker, this is best left up to the training staff. Any early season injury is worth a few declining points, so look for Nicks' trend to start falling soon if we start hearing reports of a slow recovery. If it does, then target him for sure as even eight to ten weeks of Nicks is going to be worth more than some receivers you've had all year.
Roy Helu, RB WAS (-2.2|PERCENT|) – If this were a PPR league we were talking about, there might not be as much concern for a drop from Helu. But in a standard league, withTim Hightower on one side and Evan Royster on the other, we're likely seeing a strong reduction in the number of touches Helu may get. Not to mention the problems that always persist in a Shanahan-led running game. Helu could be named the starter and he'll get two carries to open the game and never touch the ball again as Royster finishes with 22 touches and 115 yards.
Jahvid Best, RB DET (-0.6|PERCENT|) – Similarly to Helu, Best could start to lose touches with the new plan the Lions have to emulate the Saints ground game from last year. Best will take on a Darren Sproles-like role, Mikel Leshoure will play the part of Mark Ingram and Kevin Smith will make a cameo appearance here and there as thePierre Thomas-type guy. From an actual football perspective, it's definitely not a bad system if you can disguise the offense and not be so predictable based on the personnel that's on the field, but from a fantasy perspective it just means that other guys are eating into your guy's touches. Unless the Lions lean heavily on the screen pass, Best will see a reduction in touches and likely a reduced ADP rank as well. Owners will likely start to shy away from Best for this reason as well as the concussion history and in actuality, it might be best if you did as well.
Percy Harvin, WR MIN (-1.7|PERCENT|) – Migraines, Ponder and Peterson, oh my! That's where Harvin's ADP is going to get tied to over the next few weeks. If the Vikings ground game is hurt by an unsuccessful recovery by Adrian Peterson, then coverage will be a nightmare and Harvin will start to fall off a lot of people's draft boards. If Christian Ponderbuilds a rapport with Jerome Simpson or even Michael Jenkins, then Harvin could see a reduction in targets early on. If Harvin continues to suffer from migraines and misses more time because of them, then fewer owners are going to want to deal with him. That's a lot of "ifs" to be dealing with so early in the summer. If there's a problem with any one of those three things, you can expect fantasy owners to start looking elsewhere. Of course, given the fact that Harvin has great hands and is still the number one guy, you can hope that everything goes right and still people grow overly concerned. He's a fourth round pick right now, so start talking up the medical history and see if you can't convince a few people to leave him be for another round or two so you can swoop on in.
Shonn Greene, RB NYJ (-3.8|PERCENT|) – This is all tied to Tim Tebow, folks. Whether he's under center as the QB or acting as a running back, his presence on the field devalues Greene heavily. Sure, Greene will see plenty of work between the 20's, but come red zone time, Tebow is very well known to keep the ball in his hands. Keep an eye on this situation once camp opens up because the more action Tebow sees on the field, the lower Greene's value becomes and the further he'll drop in the ADP ranks. Right now he's going 38th overall in mock drafts, but that seems a little high for a guy who won't get endzone looks. You're better off grabbing him later if he starts to fall, but if he stays where he's at and Tebow is under center, you might not want to invest too heavily.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, email him at[email protected].