Over the years, I have become increasingly methodical in my draft day preparations. Like many owners who play in several different leagues, there is a strong correlation between the rosters of my eight teams this season. As a result, there are much larger investments in some players than others, and of course, an even greater portion of the player pool that I avoided entirely because of concerns about playing time, injuries, or the draft day price tag simply became too high. If you are into investment terms, you would say that I shorted these players.

Of course, in draft formats, there are more constraints than auctions so the opportunity to own many early-round players is dictated by draft position. Still, there was one very talented young player that I avoided across the board two-plus months ago and it has proven to be a good decision thus far.

Brett Lawrie's impressive rookie numbers were unlike any we have ever seen from a first-year player upon his callup with the Blue Jays last season, as he hit .293 with nine homers, 25 RBI and seven stolen bases over 43 games (171 plate appearances). Not surprisingly, the hype drove up the price tag during the winter and spring, and owning Lawrie required a top-40 overall selection.

Through a similar sample size this season (45 games, 188 plate appearances), Lawrie is hitting .273 with three homers, 17 RBI and seven steals in 10 attempts. In addition to the lost power, Lawrie's on-base percentage has dipped to .314 while his walk rate has fallen from 9.4|PERCENT| in 2011 to 4.3|PERCENT| this season. Thanks to Fangraphs, we can take a closer look at what is underneath the lost power for the young third baseman.

As a rookie, Lawrie's batted ball profile included a 38.1|PERCENT| groundball rate, 44.9|PERCENT| flyball rate and 16.9|PERCENT| line drive rate. Good things happened when he put the ball in the air, as 17.0|PERCENT| of his flyballs cleared the outfield wall for a home run.

Year 2 has brought a vastly different profile, as Lawrie now has a 56.3|PERCENT| groundball rate, 25.0|PERCENT| flyball rate and 18.8|PERCENT| line drive rate, while his HR/FB mark has fallen to 8.3|PERCENT|.

This type of regression is often met with a generic label that I refuse to use in my analysis (it rhymes with ploshmore clump), when instead we should focus on the fact that baseball is a game of adjustments. As young players arrive, the league often catches up to them. With young pitchers, players, coaches and advance scouts learn their tendencies and become more likely to find patterns and subsequently punish mistakes. Those adjustments are met by changes made by the pitcher, and ultimately their long-term success is predicated on the success of adapting to the ever-changing approaches of the hitters they face.

For hitters, the adjustments include things like pitch recognition and plate coverage, as big league pitchers will quickly find holes and weaknesses in their approach. The underlying numbers often reveal the details of this cat-and-mouse game that young players are forced to endure.

Last season, Lawrie swung at just 21.1|PERCENT| of the pitches that he saw outside of the strike zone (the league average was 28.6|PERCENT|), showing excellent plate discipline in his MLB debut and accruing the previously mentioned 9.4|PERCENT| walk rate (league average: 8.1|PERCENT| in 2011). Looking a bit closer at the types of pitches Lawrie was given, you will see that Lawrie was given a strike from the opposing pitcher 46.8|PERCENT| of the time (league average: 59.4|PERCENT| in 2011).

Not surprisingly, the percentage of first-pitch strikes he has seen in his second season has increased to 60.6|PERCENT|, just slightly above league average as pitchers appear to have learned that falling behind in the count against Lawrie last season was very costly. It is also worth noting that opposing pitchers are throwing Lawrie fewer four-seam fastballs this season, instead opting to increase the number of sliders against him.

For a hitter who slashed .375/.521/.786 after getting ahead in the count as a rookie and hit just .205/.244/.333 when falling behind, it is easy to see how simply getting a heavier dose of first-pitch strikes has contributed to the drop-off in power thus far. Look at the ahead/behind splits for any hitter and you will see a very significant shift in production when the count swings in their favor.

Those who currently own Lawrie should continue to exercise patience as he's a 22-year-old still finding his way against much older competition, but there is still a lot to like here given the power-friendly environment he will play half of his games in as well as the quality of the lineup around him. For the leagues I am in where the asking price has fallen, I will be at the front of the line ready to profit as Lawrie continues to make adjustments at the plate over the final four months of the season.

Follow me on Twitter @DerekVanRiper.