Took yesterday and its seven game schedule off. I'm ready to improve on my season record of 13-6 +$658 with today's full compliment of games (sans those that may fall under the "Vara Curse"|STAR|).
Cardinals +112 over Phillies
Bet $100
Am I really taking Kyle Lohse over Cliff Lee? The numbers say this is actually a smart play. Consider that the Cards have won eight of Lohse's last 10 starts, are 6-1 in his last seven home games, have won four of their last five at home, and are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter. Lohse (5-1, 2.91) and Lee (0-2, 2.66) are both pitching well, but Lee has been the victim of little run support... the Phillies have totaled nine runs in his six starts, adding to an awful 1-6 record in his last seven games.
Astros – Dodgers Over 6
Bet $100
Yes, I am aware that Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 1.90) is currently on a 22-inning scoreless streak and that the Astros have scored just twice in their last 28 innings against him. I am also aware that he threw his first complete game of the season Saturday, and improved to 14-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his last 20 starts at home. Kershaw is also 3-0 with a 0.64 ERA in his last four games against the Astros. All of this contributes to why the money line is -230 and why I believe the Dodgers will win. But I also believe that they will torch Lucas Harrell (3-3, 4.09), who they face for the first time. The Astros have lost all five of Harrell's road starts (0-3, 5.60) and the Dodgers should achieve the Over on their own.
Good luck!
|STAR| The Vara Curse is a fictitious, superstitious belief that any of my selections on which Tom Vara also wagers will lose. The unofficial tally thus far is 0-3, -$350, while non-cursed wagers are 13-3, +$1,008.