I'm not a huge college basketball guy, but of course I'm obligated to enter several NCAA Tournament pools. But I know very little about field - embarrassingly little for someone who works in the sports world. And I can't even use my alma mater as an excuse since Northwestern was actually decent his year (getting mentioned on Selection Sunday for the first time in team history - even if to say they lost out on the bubble).

So how do I make an entry that has a shot? I'm looking for value. With ESPN and Yahoo having data on what teams people are picking in their pools (with million of entries), we can quickly get a good read on the marketplace. Then I turned to two sources for rankings: Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight (and formerly of Baseball Prospectus) and Ken Pomeroy, who's got a good reputation as an NCAA basketball advanced stat guru.

My theory on winning your NCAA bracket is that you need to focus on the Final Four. Get 2-4 teams in the Final Four and you have a shot. And hopefully your pool doesn't use the default settings and over-emphasize the overall winner. There's nothing worse than when someone gets three of four Final Four teams correct, but loses to someone who just took their favorite team to win it all.

In formats that don't overly reward the overall winner, if you can take mostly favorites in the Final Four and get one upset team, you often win your pool. So I took the Yahoo data on teams picked most to make the Final Four and Silver's odds of making the Final Four to look for value. Here's the result:

The first column is the percentage of users that Yahoo entries think will win their first game. l used that for a list of basic popularity. I'm only listing the top 36 teams because if you're picking anything lower than an eight seed to make the Final Four, you really are going out on a limb. Maybe you know something, but I certainly don't. I'm just trying to find the best value based on rankings and market prices.

The four teams in the red in the last column really stand out as they have a big difference between the percentage of Yahoo entries picking them to the Final Four vs. Silver's chances to make the Final Four. I also included the Pomroy's main ranking stat to show how he compares the top of the field.

Ohio State really stands out as the best value. I'm not sure why the public is so down on their chances. Kansas, Memphis and Wisconsin also stand out (although since I live in Wisconsin, that value will be neutralized by the Badgers' popularity in my pools). Duke and New Mexico also stand out, but they don't fare as well in the Pomroy rankings.

As a result my Final Four teams are Memphis, Kentucky, Ohio State and Kansas. I'll probably win my pool if Memphis makes a run to the Final Four.  If not, I may still have a shot if few other teams have picked Ohio State.

That's my plan. Don't ask me about players, matchups and offensive schemes. I know nothing.

And if we have another tournament like last year where only 4.7 percent of the people picked the winner last year on ESPN and only two of 5.9 million entries picked the full final four (since an 11 seed made the Final Four), it won't really matter any way. You'll have a better chance winning $200 million in the lottery.