Closers are cheaper at draft tables than years past, but remaining patient when addressing the position is as important as ever. Consider among the top-16 closers selected last year according to average draft position, just four of those finished in the top-10 in saves. We all know predicting save opportunities is an exercise in futility, but relievers in nature are also the most fickle of all positions, making the drafting of closers a tricky situation.
Craig Kimbrel appears to be the undisputed first closer off draft boards this year. In fact, his ADP is more than 20 spots higher than the second closer typically being selected. It's easy to see why, as Kimbrel struck out 127 batters last season, giving him more upside than a dependable alternative like Mariano Rivera. However, Kimbrel has poor control (3.74 BB/9IP), was worked hard as a rookie – he threw the eighth-most pitches among all relievers last season, and has a short track record that consists of fewer than 100 major-league innings. Even at age 42, it's hard not to call Rivera a safer pick, and that's without taking into account his much cheaper price tag. Of course, Rivera is the one glaring exception when it comes to long-term consistency and relievers, but the point remains – there's no reason to be among the first in your league to draft a closer with such massive yearly turnover among the elite at the position. Moreover, unless you play in a max-innings cap league, no matter how impressive Kimbrel's K rate is, his impact in the strikeouts category has an obvious ceiling as a reliever.
Delving further into the strategies behind addressing closers, there's an argument to completely punt the position in deep "only" leagues. I'll once again be competing in the industry league LABR this year, which is an NL-only format with 13 participants and a deep roster, featuring two catchers, five outfielders and 10 pitchers, so all teams are going to have holes somewhere in their lineup. In these types of formats, fourth outfielders and utility players have value, as at-bats are a real currency. With 13 participants in the league and just 16 closers employed in the National League, you either have to buy two of them to really compete in the category, which will no doubt leave you with big holes elsewhere on your roster, or you can buy one, and then you are basically hoping for luck to break your way, since save production fluctuates so much, even regardless of a pitchers' core skills and team context. You could draft a $15 type closer and still finish with just two or three points in the category quite easily. Of course, the third option is not paying for saves whatsoever. While in a mixed format you'd be using those extra dollars to theoretically upgrade at another position, in an "only" league it might be the difference between a complete zero and 550 at-bats.
Conversely, it's best not to ignore the position in mixed leagues, especially in an NFBC style format in which you aren't just playing against your individual league but also for a grand prize versus 100s of other participants, where it would be impossible to win overall while not competing in every category. While volatility is the primary reason to exercise patience when drafting closers, another is that it looks like a particularly deep group this year. Boring veterans such as Brandon League, Joe Nathan, Huston Street, Rafael Betancourt, Kyle Farnsworth and Frank Francisco can all typically be drafted after 180 players are off the board, while intriguing options like Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Jason Motte and Addison Reed are all outside the top-15 among closers according to ADP, and it wouldn't surprise in the least if any of them finished as a top-three fantasy closer in 2012. I'm ignoring closers in "only" formats this year and waiting on them in mixed leagues, although with so many intriguing options later on, a "be the last to draft your first, and the first to draft your second" strategy may make sense.