Next week I want to get into specifics in regards to strategy, especially when it comes to closers, but I wanted to start with a few players I'm targeting. They are by no means sleepers, but these are players I'm willing to pay more than the normal price tag to acquire:
Zack Greinke: Greinke finished with a 3.83 ERA last year, but that was accompanied by a 10.54 K/9 rate that easily led major league baseball. In fact, the next best in the N.L. was Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, who fanned nearly one fewer per nine (9.57). Greinke ended June with a 5.63 ERA, and while it would be easy to explain his slow start by a lack of spring training since he missed April with a rib injury, he posted an 80:12 K:BB ratio over 62.1 innings, so he was actually pretty fantastic. Things normalized after that, as he recorded a 2.59 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP after the All-Star break, even with his K:BB ratio not being quite as good. And make no mistake, Greinke is no Ricky Nolasco, as his run prevention usually matches his terrific peripherals. Put differently, his ERA has actually been better than his xFIP in five of his eight years in the league. Greinke will be pitching for a big contract this season, and while he may never repeat his Cy Young performance in 2009, don't overlook just how dominant he was while switching to the National League last year, even if his ERA didn't reveal it. His current ADP suggests you can grab him after 50 picks are off the board, but Greinke is the No. 5 SP on my board.
Desmond Jennings: First the negatives: Jennings hit .160/.258/.245 in September, so it's possible pitchers caught up to him after his fast start. Moreover, Tropicana Field has ranked 29th and 30th when it comes to hitters' parks over the past two seasons, for what that's worth. Now the positives: Jennings racked up 10 homers and 20 steals over just 247 at-bats last year, which reveals quite a bit of upside. I'm not a huge fan of paying for unproven players, but Jennings is 25 years old with an extensive minor league track record. Even during his terrible September, he managed two homers and six stolen bases, which reveals a high floor. Maybe he takes the career path of teammate B.J. Upton, who gives you around 20 homers and 40 steals with a poor batting average. Or maybe he hits .290 with more of both, especially the steals, which could approach 50-plus. When you get past the third round of drafts, few stand out, and it becomes something of a crapshoot when it comes to hitters. Why not grab one with first round type upside?
Madison Bumgarner: Bumgarner ended April with a 6.17 ERA and 1.757 WHIP last year, but he was one of baseball's best pitchers the rest of the season, posting a 2.83 ERA and 1.142 WHIP (and that's with him allowing eight runs while recording just one out during a June outing). Over the final four months, he recorded an incredible 145:24 K:BB ratio over 126.2 innings. His 3.10 xFIP ranked seventh-best in baseball. Bumgarner's fastball velocity is now all the way back, and his slider is one of the best pitches in the game, although it should be noted he threw it 32.4 percent of the time last year, which was the fourth-highest rate in MLB, so there's some concern with health. Still, at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, he appears to be a horse and hasn't yet shown any signs of arm trouble. Bumgarner is extremely difficult to homer against, and with plus command and a rising strikeout rate, he enters his third year in the league with massive upside. Selective end points don't mean much, but he posted a 2.52 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with a 99:19 K:BB ratio over 100.0 innings after the All-Star break. I'm a Giants fan, and I give Bumgarner a 40 percent chance he has a better season than Tim Lincecum. I would have no problem making MadBum my SP1 in fantasy leagues.
Clayton Kershaw: The day of the 300-strikeout pitcher is likely finished, but if any contemporary has a chance it's Kershaw, who also happened to post a 1.31 ERA and 0.89 WHIP after the All-Star break last season as a 23-year-old. That ERA is obviously unsustainable, but his 1.67 BB/9 control over that span shows that his Cy Young campaign may just be the start of something special. Here are his WHIPs over the final five months last year: 0.96, 0.88, 1.07, 0.95, 0.75. All pitchers are inherently riskier than hitters, especially those without an extensive track record, but Kershaw might just be the best pitcher in baseball who also happens to play in the easiest division, which makes him a viable top-10 pick overall.