Over the summer, we had guests over to my house for dinner. I cooked a nice meal consisting of Salmon with a brown sugar/pepper topping, some tenderloin and cooked up corn on the cob. It doesn't get any better than stopping at a farm a few miles from your house and grabbing some fresh picked corn, although it has next to nothing in nutritional value or being digestible.
After dinner, we went out to the patio with our friends to have a drink, make smores and enjoy the sunset. Suddenly, I heard a commotion in the kitchen and went in to see what was going on. I found Bailey (my beagle) with his tail between his legs and found the butter dish, which previously had a stick for the corn, was empty.
I tell this story not out of the entertaining factor but that I feel like Bailey did that day, tail between the legs from how bad my picks were last week. Awful, horrible, terrible, atrocious. Those are understatements. Let's just say going forward the rule of thumb is to take the over in any All-Star game. I've got my fingers crossed that I'm going Prince Fielder as far as good-bad-good-bad-GOOD.
THE BIG GAME!
There's a ton of thoughts I have here. Let's get started.
Rob Gronkowski over 75.5 receiving yards. Vegas hasn't moved this much since posting the line and I think he'll make an impact. With all due respect to the medical community, anyone can theorize about how his "high" ankle sprain is but in the end would it be surprising if Belichick/Gronk are blowing this up to be a bigger issue than it is? He returned to the AFC Championship game, right? He's had two weeks of constant treatment, can shoot his ankle up and get it wrapped so tight he can't feel it right? I brought up on our Sirius/XM show Wednesday that this reminded me of T.O.'s injury before the Eagles played in the SB. Yes, different injury and six weeks to recover. But many thought he would do little that game and he was a beast. If I'm Gronk I just tell myself I have six months to get to 100 percent. I might never play in this game again. Fun fact – Gronkowski grew up less than 10 minutes from where I live, his mom helped me out at our local grocery store earlier this week – you can't meet a nicer person. Still, as a Bills fan, I hate the Patriots.
NY Giants +3 (120) – I like adding an extra 10 percent vig and getting the full field goal as a safety blanket. I'm not feeling as confident as I was when the line originally came out and it has nothing to do with the spread dropping. It's more due to the fact that |STAR|everyone|STAR| seems to be picking the Giants. Everyone is betting the Giants. I read an article that said offshore books are reporting that over 80 percent of 25K+ wagers are on the Giants. Vegas will get crushed not only if the Giants cover the spread but based on the wagers made on them winning the Super Bowl after they lost four games in a row and before the playoffs started. In reality, that may be overblown because if you had the Giants at 20-80:1, you're be a fool to not hedge and take the Pats money line.
Kelly Clarkson, over 1 minute, 35 seconds for the National Anthem. Not a strong feeling here but this one is really for entertainment value. My knowledge of her music is limited but from what I've heard she seems to really dislike men. Maybe her boyfriend is to blame; I'd guess he dumped her which is why she's put on so much weight (relax, it's just a joke).
Wes Welker over 79.5 receiving yards. Corey Webster did a stellar job taking Michael Crabtree out of the game. However, Welker is a completely different type of receiver. Look for Brady to hit him on a lot of short crossing patterns and him to do a lot in the way of YAC.
Over 54. As much as I'm starting to dislike the Giants and the points, I'm loving the over that much more. It makes zero sense; they played a scoreless first half the last time around and both conference championship games totaled 43 and 37. When they played earlier this season the game totaled 44. The last Super Bowl they played against each othe in totaled 31. Yes - totally, completely different game but I think Joe Public thinks of that. So why did the line come out so high at 55.5? It's begging Joe Public to take the under. This could be a case of me over- thinking things as that happens at times. Naturally, I'll take the over then. If I had to call it – 35-31 NY.
First quarter TD pass for either QB at +160. I'd take both QBs here. I think this is playing too much into the fact that they played a scoreless first half earlier this season. This reminds me of the Rotowire Vegas trip when I took AGonz, Bautista and Fielder to hit a home run in the All-Star game. All I needed was one to go yard and I'd win money; anyone else was gravy. I can't see neither QB not throwing a first quarter TD and given what I think the score will be seeing both wouldn't be a surprise at all.
Mario Manningham over 45.5 receiving yards. Love this one. He's a legit #2 wide receiver on any team but he'll be covered by the Patriots third-best defensive back. Eli is going to know that and should use that to his advantage. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he goes over this mark on one pass play.
Giants – 1.5 points over Carmelo Anthony's point total. 'Melo isn't 100 percent and has scored 26, 26, 25 his last three games. I think the Giants get four TDs easily.
Claude Giroux points + 0.5 over Giants/NE fumbles. I think this will be a pretty clean game and I like the fact that Giroux (who's having an outstanding season) doesn't need to record a point to win this wager.
Don't think I forgot about the UFC…
Carlos Condit +175. This should be a great fight as Nick Diaz hasn't lost since 2007, winning 11 straight fights. However, this line started out closer to even and a lot money coming on Diaz has moved it to this point. "Not at the table" Carlos Condit has lost once since 2006 (13-1), a split decision. What I think could be the difference here is the amount of scar tissue Diaz has from not only Ultimate Fighting but boxing as well. As a result, when he gets hit, he bleeds and bleeds badly (think Marcus Davis). Conditioning shouldn't be a factor for either which is what makes this an entertaining five round fight.
Fabricio Werdum – 155. When you look at Roy Nelson, it gives you hope that you could be an MMA fighter. Nelson hits hard but is far short of a model of fitness. Werdum has lost to three fighters since 2007 – Alistair Overeem, Junior dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski (when he was good). That's a pretty good list of fighters to lose to and Werdum beat Fedor Emelianenko a year and a half ago. Look for Werdum to get this to the ground and finish via submission.
Agree, disagree and why? Anything I missed? Hit the comments. Take a look on the site for my Transactions column and my team preview for the Rays should be up over the next few weeks. I'll be blogging a lot of baseball soon as well.