There's a great episode of Seinfeld where George finally figures out when he should go out "on top." After last week and hitting all four wagers (slightly five), I was inclined to do so. But given the importance of both this week and next, I felt the urge to continue on. Seriously, here's a look at last week and this weekend:
College Hoops:
Notre Dame + 8.5 – win. Not only did they win, they won by nine. I also wrote to put a very, very small bet on the money line which hit as well. I wrote all of this before I knew Fab Melo was out for the Orange which didn't help their cause. Nonetheless, a win.
NFL:
Baltimore +7 – win. A very close game decided by a very poor kick. I even said I thought that the Patriots would win but Baltimore would cover. If I'm a Ravens fan, I like the prospects of them returning to this game next season as long as they pay Ray Rice.
Torrey Smith over 49.5 receiving yards – win. This was over in the first quarter. With his bigger size is he DeSean Jackson-lite or DeSean Jackson 2.0 going forward? I'll gamble on him over DJax given what I think the ADP will be on each.
NY Giants + 2 – win. I discussed on our Sirius/XM show that I didn't like the outcome of either game championship game. Neither the Giants or Patriots |STAR|made a statement|STAR| that "we deserve to be in the Super Bowl." That being said, the Giants are clearly playing better football right now.
In full disclosure, I'm now 5-5 in the playoffs. So this last game will tilt the seesaw.
Picks for this weekend:
Tonight there'll be a UFC event on FOX that should be better than 55 minutes of buildup and less than three minutes of fighting. Check it out during the commercials of the NHL skills challenge or whatever basketball game you're watching.
Michael Bisping +300. Chael Sonnen is easily one of the most entertaining personalities both inside and outside of the ring. I'm not a Bisping fan by any measure; his defeat of Matt Hamill in the U.K. was one of the poorest decisions I've ever seen the judges hand out. That being said, Sonnen is so focused on Anderson Silva that I think he could be looking past Bisping and +300 is a nice payout if it hits. The winner of this fight gets "The Spider."
Phil Davis +175. I like this as there's been a lot of money coming in on Rashad Evans. I really should be backing Evans, who grew up about 20 minutes from where I live. A former wrestler out of Penn State, Davis is 9-0 in his MMA career and should provide a tough test for Evans. Given the wrestling pedigree of both fighters, it'll be interesting to see what happens if this fight goes to the ground.
NHL All-Star Game:
Flip a coin as to which team is going to win. Alfredsson/Spezza are home but Chara has Tim Thomas. However, the O/U 18 goals is an interesting number considering there were 21 scored last in last season's game. Give me the under.
College Hoops:
|STAR|Most confusing line of the year:
Team A is 15-5 and has won two straight. Team B is 13-7 and lost four straight but are home. Both teams play in the same conference. Team B is favored by 10.5.
The teams are Arkansas and Alabama. Alabama is Team B and for whatever reason is favored by 10.5 points. In typical fashion I'll back them since this spread reeks of a trap.
Onto the big game…
I reserve any and all rights to change my opinion within the next eight days. I will definitely follow this up with another blog next week solidifying my picks.
Giants +3. This is arguably a better Giants team than the one that won the Super Bowl and arguably the worst Patriots team (especially on the defensive side) that has played in the big game with Brady under center. I think the reputation of the Patriots in the Belichick era is why they're laying the points; an even spread it what I think this line should be at.
Over 55. Earlier this year their game totaled 44 points. The two championship games totaled 43 and 37 points. Super Bowl XLII totaled 31 points. So does 55 smell like a trap? I'll go over here but I'm not in love with it.
Wes Welker over 78.5 receiving yards. Here are Welker's receiving totals from the last three games – 53, 55, 51. So 78.5 is a bit high but it makes sense to me for two reasons. First, with Gronkowski not 100 percent I can see Welker getting another target or two from Brady at the very least. Second, I expect the Patriots to use a lot of short, quick pass plays to try and neutralize the Giants front four. Welker gets off the line quickly and runs the short crossing pattern as good as anyone in the league.
Mario Manningham over 45.5 receiving yards. The last two weeks Manningham has had 17 and 31 receiving yards. Belichick will likely game plan to take away either Hakeem Nicks or Victor Cruz (maybe both) so Manningham should have single coverage all day. I'm not convinced that New England can get a decent pass rush on Eli when he goes into a seven-step drop either, opening up deep patterns down the field for Super Mario.
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