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Defensive Showdown In Baltimore: Divisional Round Prediction

Just a reminder that all Tebow does is win. Unfortunately, he looks to run into a buzz saw in New England this week. No one would be more embarrassed with a loss coming off a bye to the Tebownator than Bill Belichick.

Overall: 21-13-1

Last Week's Predictions:

Detroit +10.5 at New Orleans: LOSS

This was looking like a great pick through three quarters. In fact, it was looking especially good as the Lions returned a fumble for a touchdown halfway through the second quarter, only to have it revoked on an inadvertent whistle. I lost a flag football game once on an inadvertent whistle. It sucks. That being said, the Saints are on a roll. They've won nine straight games and scored over 44 points per game over their last four contests. No one wants to face Drew Brees right now.

Divisional Round Prediction:

Houston +7.5 at Baltimore

The Texans took out the Bengals in the same fashion they've been winning all year: defense. They own the third best defense remaining in the playoffs and their pass defense - the same pass defense that ranked dead last in 2010 - prevents five points per game from being scored that a league-average defense would surrender. Unfortunately for Houston, they are going up against the best remaining defense in the playoffs after adjusting for strength of opponents. Both offenses are fairly average so we expect a low scoring game. Houston lost in Baltimore in Week 6, 29-14 and Baltimore should win again, but I like Houston with the points to cover about two-thirds of the time.

The most accurate weekly projections from numberFire.com based on wall-street style analytics. numberFire outpredicted two of the most trafficked fantasy sites 70|PERCENT| of the time and are 54-55|PERCENT| against the spread over the last 3 seasons.