Last week I had a great start when both my UFC picks hit before returning to mediocrity. I think overall given the said odds I came out ahead, maybe by a lot. Here's how I did:
Nate Diaz + 260 – win. Diaz peppered Donald Cerrone with short jabs which proved to be the difference. Both fighters showed solid jaws and I'd love to see a rematch.
Alistair Overeem – 145 – win. Granted he was the favorite but this fight wasn't even close. Overeem kicked Brock Lesnar in the midsection so hard Lesnar skipped the post-fight interview to go to the hospital because he thought he had broken ribs.
Wisconsin – 5.5 – loss. A late turnover, not going for it on 4th downs, a recipe to lose.
Oklahoma St. -4 – loss. He |STAR|was not|STAR| down at the one in overtime! Seriously, what a gut punch, unless you had the OSU money line.
Onto the NFL:
Washington + 8.5 – loss. Stupid, stupid, stupid. I'll have someone smack me in the face if I ever back a Washington-led Shanahan team again. BTW – is anyone starting to give Gary Kubiak credit for those Denver SBs over Shanahan? I am.
Tampa Bay +11.5 – loss. I said on my weekly segment on SiriusXM Fantasy (Sirius 210, XM 87, 12:33 EST Wednesdays, shameless plug) that Tampa Bay showed up as a college team. Jeff Erickson rightly corrected me and said that was an insult to all college teams. This is a tough train to get on the right track but it's loaded with merchandise. I'll be curious to see what happens here when |STAR|someone|STAR| takes over.
Dallas/NYGiants under 46 - win. I think I said they went way too over in the first match for this to happen again. After losing the two college games so closely, I'll hang this win on a banner.
NY Giants +300 to win the division - win. It happened and somewhere Chris Liss is dancing. If you believe the Giants play to the level of their competition and can make a run, shouldn't the AFC equivalent be the Ravens? Yes or no?
SF to win the NFC Championship +600 - pending. This is now the correct odds this week, not last. I'll give them close to a 50/50 shot to win their first game at home and a 33-40 percent chance to win in Green Bay. So a 50 percent mark times a 33 to 40 percent mark is roughly 1 out of 6 or 18 percent. However, this also means there's an assumption that the Saints and Packers win, something that shouldn't be taken for granted. Oddly, the 49ers are still +600 to win the division and that looks pretty good considering you could hedge after winning close to a 50/50 game in the divisional round.
Onto this week's picks. I'll pick every NFL game going forward; if you've read anything of mine last season (mostly in "Monday Morning Thoughts") you'll know I went 7-4 in the playoffs last season. The four losses? I went against Green Bay every time, so that 7-4 mark should seem more 6-5 or 5-6 since I lost the Super Bowl.
College Hoops!?!? Yes, I'll go there.
Dayton +7 vs. Temple. Love Dayton since Temple coming off a huge high beating Duke, I'd sneak a small amount on the money line for Dayton too.
West Virginia -2 vs. Georgetown. Go WV, if you've ever been to the state, there's little else there other than the college. Plus, Georgetown has won 11 straight and they're underdogs…
The NFL:
My favorite game of the week:
Take Detroit +10.5 or +11. The Saints have won all eight games at home and have covered the spread. Naturally, Kevin Payne says this won't happen again. Detroit can rush four while dropping seven into coverage and putting up numbers isn't a problem. I love the spread here and think it's a 3-point win but for New Orleans. I'm already liking the San Fran matchup - hint, hint.
Onto next season for a minute. Think about the 2007 Patriots, remember when everyone was backing them and then the second-half spreads were high and they didn't cover? Think about that when wagering on the Saints at home next season no matter the outcome of the playoffs.
Atlanta Falcons +3. Look, I can't figure out the Giants. Maybe they're this great team coming together at the right time or maybe not. Last week's blog I said I like Tom Coughlin over Jason Garrett, this week I say I like Mike Smith over Tom Coughlin.
Houston – 3 over Cincy. Arian Foster, an awesome offensive line, the first playoff game ever at home and no Dallas to compete with locally! Obvious choice here but it comes down to a defensive play by Houston, maybe (ironically) Johnathan Joseph gets a pick-6 watching A.G. Green.
Pitt/Den the spread is -9 Pitt. My take on this game is this: the spread does not matter! Either Tebow will upset the Steelers (who are due an upset in the playoffs) or Pittsburgh wins outright by a ton. I don't see the spread making any difference so I say take Denver!
Have a fun weekend watching football!