Though it hasn't exactly been a closely kept secret, Chris Paul has reportedly made it official that he wants to be a Knick. My first thought when seeing this was to go through and think about the odds that he might actually get to New York this year, and to consider the ramifications if he DOES manage to get to the Big Apple. But closely on the heels of that thought came another...haven't I done this thought experiment before? And it turns out that yes, I have. Here is a blurb from a blog I wrote in August of 2010 called "Odds of SuperFriends II":
Can Paul get to New York? Paul is really the key ingredient for the Knicks, because he is the player that might actually be as good as Dywane Wade or LeBron James (members of SuperFriends I). To win in the NBA you need a superstar, someone to define your team's identity and be the rock everyone can cling to. Paul can be that guy. The problem is, Paul's contract with the Hornets runs for two more seasons so he has no leverage to force himself out of town. Last February I speculated that Paul might be dealt from the Hornets due to the surprisingly excellent play of Darren Collison, but the Hornets shot down that line of reasoning by trading Collison last week in a deal that brought Trevor Ariza to New Orleans. That suggests that the Hornets plan to keep trying to build around Paul as opposed to dealing him, though there are rumblings that Paul still wants out. About the only thing that would suggest at all that Paul could still be traded to the Knicks is that the Knicks also have a good young PG in Raymond Felton, so if the Hornets decide to make that move they wouldn't actually need Collison.
Odds that Paul is a Knick this year: 1 in 10
Surprisingly, despite all of the transactions of the past year, I don't think that all that much has changed on this front as far as Paul's chances to get to New York. The Knicks used all of their young trade ammunition up last year in the deal for Carmelo Anthony, so I really don't see what they could use to get Paul. As such, while the odds that Paul becomes a Knick this year might be a bit higher than 1 in 10, I still have to think the odds are against it. That said, let's look at what the ramifications might be if he DID get his wish this season. Once again, I think my analysis from last year's blog still holds true:
Here's the thing...even if the Knicks get both Paul and Melo this year, I still don't think they can beat the Lakers. Or the Celtics. Or the Heat. Or maybe even the Magic. Because we've seen a version of this match before. Paul and Stoudemire playing for Mike D'Antoni would just be a slightly modified version of the '05 - '08 Suns. They would be very, very good...capable of winning a title if all fell right in the right year, but not a team with the upside of some of the epic squads we've got this year. And while Melo may be more talented than Shawn Marion, he doesn't fit nearly as well as the third member as Marion did because Melo needs the rock. Marion could score 20 points without ever having a play called for him, just off garbage-man put-backs and open treys. And he could still make his huge impact defensively and on the glass. But Melo's claim to fame is scoring...I just don't see his contributions making the team that much more formidable. Which means that a New York Super Friends reunion, while fun, likely wouldn't result in a title.
What it WOULD result in, though, would be a lot of excellent pub for the NBA brand. Commisioner David Stern would have a dream scenario: contenders in every major NBA market (LA, Boston, New York, Miami) with lots of drama swirling around all of them. This would be huge for the league, and in some weird way could maybe help avoid the threat of a lockout because this kind of groundswell in popularity, coupled with the potential of an NFL lockout, could threaten to make the NBA the king sport again next year for the first time since the early 90s...and they would be fools to squander that kind of opportunity with a lockout of their own.
Plus, the fantasy ramifications of such a union are mouth-watering. Paul playing for D'Antoni with those kinds of running mates could average 15 assists per game, and both Amare and Melo could average over 25 on uber efficiency.
Ultimately, a Paul to the Knicks move would be fantasy gold for all involved. Paul would get to be a souped up version of Nash, with assists galore and efficient (if slightly less) scoring. Amare goes back to a legit 28-point/60|PERCENT| FG/85|PERCENT| FT threat, and Melo likely remains himself but more efficient. But just as last year, I just don't see how such an event realistically comes to pass.