Thanksgiving is the greatest day of the year. Food, family, and football. Two great matchups on Thursday, plus the typical Dallas Cowboys game. I, for one, am looking forward to the Harbaugh Bowl. George Bluth would be proud to film Boyfights 3: A Thanksgiving Football Game (sorry for the poor video quality).
Overall: 15-6-1
Last Week's Predictions:
Buffalo +2 at Miami: LOSS
I was way off on this one and the Bills continue to spiral in the wrong direction, losing 3 straight. On the other hand, the Dolphins have won 3 straight after losing their first 7, and will face Dallas on Thursday. Ryan Fitzpatrick fell out of the top 10 in terms of total efficiency added among QBs for the first time since Week 9.
Chicago -3.5 vs San Diego: WIN
Chicago has looked dominant the last three weeks and owns the NFC's top defense. The Bears capitalized on horrible decision making by both Norv Turner and Philip Rivers. Jay Cutler's injury could prove to be devastating, but for now, Lovie Smith and the Bears look playoff bound.
Week 12 Predictions:
San Francisco +3.5 at Baltimore
At this point, I trust the Ravens offense about as much as I do the 49ers. This will be a defensive battle as the Ravens own the number 1 defense in the league and Niners own the number 6 defense after adjusting for strength of opponents. The Ravens have been downright dominant against the pass but neither defense has many holes. Thanks to Alex Smith, San Francisco has scored 26 points above expectation on passing plays this season. The Ravens have scored just 3 points above league average - which makes them, essentially, the league average offense.
Tennessee -3 vs Tampa Bay
We won't know Matt Hasselbeck's status until late this week, but even in his absence, Jake Locker looked passable. Tennessee is still vastly underrated, despite their 32nd ranked rushing efficiency. They are the 3rd best team in the AFC against the run after adjusting for strength of opponents, and could benefit greatly from the Matt Schaub injury. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, is average or below average in every team-oriented category. Their biggest difference this year has been a passing offense that has scored 30 less points than an average offense would in similar situations.
The most accurate weekly projections from numberFire.com based on wall-street style analytics. numberFire outpredicted two of the most trafficked fantasy sites 70|PERCENT| of the time and are 54-55|PERCENT| against the spread over the last 3 seasons.