My recent success in picking winners and O/U is encouraging. Can the break-even point be far behind?
Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 7 +100
Rationale: I anticipated a tremendous pitcher's duel… The Braves' Jair Jurrjens was 5-1 with a 1.80 ERA, and had not allowed more than 2 ER in any outing this season. He had lost his last 3 games against the Pirates (none since 2009) despite posting a 3.06 ERA. The Pirates' Charlie Morton looked to extend a career-best run by winning a fourth consecutive outing. He was 5-1 with a 2.62 ERA this season. The Pirates had allowed 8 runs in their last 5 games. The Braves had scored a total of 11 runs in the past 5 games and were riddled with injuries… Jason Heyward was placed on the 15 day DL on Sunday with recurring soreness in his right shoulder. Former Pirate Nate McLouth left Sunday's games with a strained left oblique and was uncertain to play. The Under was 6-2-1 for Atlanta in their last 9 games, and 5-2-1 in their last 8 road games. The Under was 9-4 for Pittsburgh in their last 13 homes games, and 9-3-2 in Morton's last 14 home starts. The Under was 34-16-2 in the last 52 meetings between these two teams.
Reality: Jurrjens (6-1) pitched 6 hit ball in 7+ inning, striking out 4 while allowing 1 BB. His ERA dropped to 1.56 on the season. Craig Kimbrel worked a perfect ninth for his 13th save. The Pirates never got a runner to third base while extending their scoreless streak to 19 innings. Morton (5-2) tried to match Jurrjens, giving up 7 hits while striking out 4 and walking 3 in 7 innings. McLouth joined Heyward on the DL, who also sat Dan Uggla. But Alex Gonzalez provided most of the "offense" with 3 hits and 1run.
SEASON RECORD: 9-11 (45|PERCENT|), - 320
I'll mix and match today, selecting 1 winner and 1 O/U:
Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers
Over 7.5 +100
Rationale: Corey Hart will look to remain red hot against tonight's starter, Jason Marquis (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Hart is hitting .412 against Marquis – the 2nd highest average against any active pitcher he has faced at least 17 times. After tying Brewers records with 3 HR and 7 RBI on Monday, Hart had 2 hits and another HR yesterday. Mike Morse also had a great day, with 3 hits including a HR, 4 RBI and 2 runs scored. Marquis is 1-1 with a 2.23 ERA in 5 career starts at Miller Park, but hasn't pitched there since June 2007. Zack Greinke (2-1, 6.32 ERA) has been a disappointment since being activated from the DL. The 2009 AL Cy Young Award winner hasn't gone past the sixth inning yet as a Brewer, and he's allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of his 4 starts. The Over is 13-5 in Washington's last 18 games following a loss. The Over is 8-3-1 in Milwaukee's last 12 home games and 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between these teams, including the last 2 starts by Marquis.
Cleveland Indians +165
Cleveland (30-16, 19-5 H); Mitch Talbot (1-0, 1.46, 1.22)
Boston (22-22, 10-12 A); Jon Lester (6-1, 3.68, 1.35)
Rationale: Despite great overall numbers, Lester has a 7.27 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He lost a 1-0 heartbreaker to Cleveland earlier this season and, in his 2 previous starts against the Indians, he lost 9-1 and 8-7. Talbot, who has been on the DL due to a strained throwing elbow, will likely be activated to start this game. His season debut came against the Red Sox on April 6 and, although he has failed to make it through the fifth inning of either of his career starts versus Boston, the Indians have won both times. The Indians are 25-5 in their last 30 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 games following a loss.