If the Thunder vs Grizzlies series matches up two relatively unheralded squads, the Heat vs the Celtics matches up two all-history teams. There's a good chance this series will feature six first-ballot Hall of Famers on the court, and that's not even including multiple All-Stars Rajon Rondo, Chris Bosh or Jermaine O'Neal who may all have their own cases for the Hall. One way or the other, it is almost guaranteed that NBA history will remember the results of this series. Because one way or the other, this series looks to be a legacy-defining moment for two squads on the edge of legend.
Miami Heat: The Heat feature their "Big Three" of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh...but really, in our narrative-loving society the story here is LeBron. LeBron is currently the Alex Rodriguez to Wade's Derek Jeter, but LeBron is also the one that still has a chance to possibly make the leap into the rarified NBA-pantheon if things go his way. And this series marks the first chance that he has to start making that leap. A big part of Michael Jordan's career-narrative was that he kept coming up short against the rugged Pistons, until he finally overcame them. In the last four years LeBron's squads have sniffed the mountain top, only to be taken down by an elite team with a dominant interior defense...twice, that goliath has been the Boston Celtics. To many, the Cavs' inability to overcome the Celtics in the 2010 playoffs are what spelled the end of LeBron's time in Cleveland and led directly to "The Decision". Now, this year, there are no more excuses. LeBron is no longer on a solo mission, as he brings along two of the best players in the NBA at his back. If the Heat win this series, the narrative likely says that LeBron finally chopped down his "Bad Boy Pistons".
Boston Celtics: The Celtics don't want to "just" be the Bad Boy Pistons. Nor do they want to be the mid-90s Houston Rockets, the mid-2000s Pistons, or the 2006 Heat. While the Bad Boys and the Rockets both won two titles, which the current Celtics certainly covet, all four of the previously mentioned teams were historical footnotes. The Bad Boys are defined for essentially ending the Showtime Lakers era and signalling in the start of the Jordan era. The Rockets are known for being the team that won the two titles that many feel that Jordan abdicated to go play baseball. And both the Ben Wallace Pistons and Shaq/Wade Heat were speed bumps in what has been the Lakers/Spurs era. As of now, these Celtics have a title but are mainly considered the vanquished rivals to Kobe's Lakers. But if they win another title this year, they have a chance to do what those previously named historical footnotes couldn't...to define their own era. And to do that, they have to get past a team sporting some of the most concentrated talent in recent history.
Keys to the series: These two teams know each other very well. LeBron (twice) and Wade (once) have faced these Celtics three times between them in the last three years, but this is the first time they'll face them as a duo. The 2010 Celtics put the pre-Decision Heat out of the playoffs last season, and current Celtics' center Jermaine O'Neal was wearing Miami red at the time. Eddie House is wearing red now, but in 2008 he won a title in Celtics green. And of course, all four of their regular season meetings this year featured playoffs-style hype. So there are few secrets here. It'll be all about execution, specifically in these particular areas:
1) The Celtics' team defense against the Heat Iso offense: The Celtics starting unit (defined by Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo and any center) had the best team-defense in the NBA by a solid margin during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Heat offense also finished in the top-5 in the NBA this year based primarily on the iso skills and fast-break ability of their three stars. The Celtics defense is built to take away iso offense from any one player, and to force opponents into beating them with secondary options and weak-side shooters. The Heat, though, have two primary options and a really good third scorer as well as plenty of spot-up shooters. This match-up will be where the rubber meets the glue in the series. In the regular season the Celtics' D won the battle, as their main unit limited LeBron and flat out erased Dwyane Wadeto help the Celtics win the season-series 3 - 1. Wade shot less than 28|PERCENT| from the field during the season, but he has torched Boston in the past (including a 46-point effort in last year's playoffs to give the Heat their only win in the series). And LeBron came closer than anyone else to beating the 2008 Celtics, then flashed brilliantly at times again in 2010. This match-up is certainly strength-on-strength for both sides.
2) Rondo, KG and Ray vs the Heat defense: While Pierce and the Celtics have historically done well defending LeBron, LeBron has utterly taken Pierce out of their last two playoffs series. In 13 games during the 2008 and 2010 playoffs, this is what Pierce has done against LeBron James:
- Pierce in game 7 of the 2008 series: 41 points (57|PERCENT| FG, 11 made FTs at a 92|PERCENT| clip)
- Pierce in the other 12 games: 14.8 points (35|PERCENT| FG, 3.4 made FTs at an 82|PERCENT| clip)
Pierce has shown the ability to step up in any given game and he is also in the midst of his best shooting year of his career, but based on recent playoffs history it doesn't appear that Pierce will be able to be the Celtics' main scorer against the Heat in this series. The good news for Celtics fans is that all three of their other main options have shown a tendency to explode in situations like this. This year's Heat are actually remarkably similar defensively to the 2010 Cavs. They give up approximately the same scoring efficiency to opponents, utilizing a similar wing-centric defense that aggressively helps and hides their defensive weaknesses at point guard and big man. This works against most teams, but the problem for them is that the Celtics were built to exploit their weaknesses.
- Rondo: Expect the Heat to start with Bibby trying to sag off of him and test the jumper, but eventually Rondo is going to be able to get into the paint. It's what he does. And when he gets into the paint, he will find that the Heat have no dominant defensive Big to dissuade him. Explosion. Expect Rondo to approach the numbers he put up against last year's Cavs: around 20 points, 11+ assists, maybe a triple-double or two. He will be an offensive key. But not the only one.
- Garnett: History tells us that against LeBron/Ilgauskas frontlines in the playoffs, KG tends to get aggressive and shine. Take a look at last postseason, when (in hindsight) Garnett still wasn't close to fully recovered from his knee injury. He averaged 12 field goal attempts/game against the Heat, Magic, and Lakers. But against the Cavs? KG upped that to 16 shots per game, making 52|PERCENT| of them on the way to a playoffs-best 19 ppg. In '08 KG also was the primary scorer for the Celtics against the Cavs, averaging 20+ points on 57|PERCENT| from the field during the six games when Pierce was struggling.
- Allen: While for Pierce, Rondo and KG the best comparisons are to last year's Cavs (starting 2/3 of the same front line, similar soft interior defense, etc.) for Ray it's different. Because Ray rarely drives, and he's rarely guarded by LeBron. No, for Ray the best stats to look at are how he did against Wade and the Heat in last year's postseason because Wade likely gets the assignment again this year. Last year against the Heat in the postseason, Ray averaged about 20 ppg on 52|PERCENT| FG and 52|PERCENT| shooting from downtown. Numbers that are very similar to what he did against the Heat this year in the regular season. Numbers that are ALSO very similar to what he did to the Knicks just last week.
If LeBron can limit Pierce and the rest of the team also limit Rondo, Garnett and Allen then Boston is in trouble. But if Rondo, Garnett and Allen play to their potential the way they have in recent similar match-ups, the Heat could be in for a long (or short, as it were) series.
Conclusions: I've been predicting since last offseason that the Celtics and Heat would meet in an epic postseason match-up, and that the Celtics would win. There is so much talent on display that anything could happen, but I see no reason to back off my prediction now. I could imagine this series playing out anywhere from a Heat victory in 6 games to a Celtics sweep, but the most likely scenario in my mind is that the Celtics win a hard-fought series. The Heat have uber talent, but they have defensive weaknesses in the interior and at point guard and on offense their attack has Mike Tyson knockout power but not a lot of diversity. The Celtics are built to take advantage of the Heat's defensive weaknesses, and they've shown over the last three postseasons that they are extremely hard to knock out with one blow. Give me the Celtics in 6, in what shapes up to be a classic series.