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Thunder vs Grizzlies: The Other Guys

Ten years ago this series would have been the Seattle Supersonics against the Vancouver Grizzlies.  A decade and two franchise-relocations later, instead we get the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Memphis Grizzlies.  We also get some of the best young talent in the NBA that nobody knows about.  Let's take a closer look at these teams, their keys, and what to look for in the series.

OKC Thunder: The Thunder are a perimeter-oriented team, featuring NBA scoring-leader Kevin Durant and the dynamic Russell Westbrook as the offensive engines.  Durant is a unique talent, a traditional shooting guard skill-set (extremely long shooting range, reasonable ball-handling with a quick first-step that more naturally leads to pull-up jumpers but can lead to attacks on the rim, using off-the-ball movement to set up offense instead of ball-domination) packaged into a 6-10 frame with mantis-like arms.  The result is a player that is a complete mismatch for any defender, that can score in bunches without having the ball in his hands all of the time.  Durant's skill-set works well with Westbrook, who is a new-jack scoring guard that likes to dominate the ball off the dribble and attack the rim with abandon.  And if he gets to the rim, he WILL dunk on you.

While Durant and Westbrook provide the offense, the Thunder rely on their two starting big men to provide defensive stability.  Newly traded-for Kendrick Perkins has received a lot of attention for his solid low-post defense and rugged game, two things that the Thunder had lacked.  But the real beneficiary of Perkins' presence is the 6-10 jumping jack Serge Ibaka, who was able to move into his natural power forward slot and is flourishing.  With Perkins in the paint, Ibaka is free to roam and play weak-side defense which has translated to an NBA playoffs-leading 4.8 blocks per game (second place is more than two full blocks behind).  Thus, with Durant/Westbrook on one end and Ibaka/Perkins on the other, the Thunder sport an outside-in offense and an inside-out defense that makes them an extremely formidable squad.

Memphis Grizzlies: The Grizzlies are essentially the Bizarro Thunder.  Once leading scorer Rudy Gay went down for the season with an injury, they converted their offense to an inside-out game led by Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.  Randolph has long been one of the most gifted low-post scorers in the NBA, but questions about his ability to play defense and his attitude...as well as a long stream of losing teams, have kept Randolph out of the public eye.  Until now.  Randolph exploded all over the #1 seeded San Antonio Spurs last round, displaying a combination of post moves and an outside jumper that never seems to even hit the rim that made him nigh unguardable.  Meanwhile, battery-mate Gasol (Marc, the "other" Gasol) took a big step out of his brother's shadow by thoroughly dominating Tim Duncan at both ends of the court.  Duncan may not be what he was, but it still would have been unthinkable two weeks ago that this Gasol could push Duncan around the court, swallow his shots defensively, and have his way on the boards as well.  With Randolph and Gasol, the Grizzlies play the kind of old-school interior-out game that isn't seen often in today's no-handcheck NBA. 

Meanwhile, at the other end, the Grizzlies defense is cominated by their perimeter players.  Right when Gay went down, the Grizzlies traded for defensive mastermind Shane Battier.  Battier has combined with defensive bull-dog Tony Allen to form one of the most potent wing defender combinations in the NBA.  Battier uses technique, footwork and his 6-9 frame to take away angles and force his opponents into contested shots.  Allen is shorter, more athletic, and one of the most physical wings in the NBA.  Many forget that Allen played a lot of power forward in college, and he will simply beat up most of his opponents (or even his teammates, right O.J. Mayo?).  The result is that wing players, even elite ones, have to really work for their points against the Grizzlies.  Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker got theirs last series, but they shot a combined 45|PERCENT| from the field and averaged 3.4 TOs/game each in the playoffs after shooting a combined 48|PERCENT| from the field with only 2.4 TOs/game average in the regular season. 

Series Keys: Essentially, this series is going to come down to which team can impose their will more on the other.  Their strengths and weaknesses look to counter-act on paper...Ibaka and Perkins should make things hard on Randolph and Gasol, while Battier and Allen are ideally suited to defend Durant and Westbrook.  Stalemate, on paper.  So, it's going to come down to execution.

After watching both teams play in the first round, Memphis actually looked more impressive.  It wasn't a fluke that they became only the second #8 seed ever to beat a #1 seed in a best-of-seven series.  They physically dominated the Spurs, then in the big moments they showed the mental toughness to maintain their superiority.  The Thunder looked solid in dispatching a scrappy Nuggets team, but they were expected to do that.  The Grizzlies were a big surprise.

Nevertheless, it's hard to pick against the Thunder.  They have one of the best individual talents in the game in Durant, with a strong team that's built to suit his strengths and weaknesses.  Also, they have been groomed to be the next big thing out West, and for the last year they've all been mentally preparing for this.  The Grizzlies, as impressive as they've looked, weren't even necessarily expecting to make the postseason, let alone advance to the conference finals.  They're displaying the kind of fearlessness that could get them through, but in my gut it just feels like the Thunder should be the team.  Give me the Thunder in 7...which is as close as I can get to saying this is a toss-up series.  But one that, big names or no, I am really looking forward to seeing play out.