Draft Stuff: Top-3, Mallett, Fairley, Runners

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Published on April 5, 2011

The First Three Picks

I feel comfortable stating at this point that, barring trades, here are the first three picks: quarterback Cam Newton (Panthers), defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (Broncos) and Von Miller (Bills).

As I said in an article recently, Newton is coach Ron Rivera's ticket to an instant three years of job security—Newton is universally regarded as a raw prospect, but one that's worth the necessary time investment. Taking Newton means no one will really expect results in Carolina until year three. If Carolina instead shuns quarterback with the first pick, press and fans alike will expect more immediate production from whatever veteran passers the Panthers turn to.

Furthermore, I think Newton is actually the most sensible pick as far as the team's interests go, not just Rivera's. Make whatever value judgments you want about his perceived personality, but Newton was downright amazing last year, and his physical talents can't be questioned. Despite what Nolan Nawrocki might have claimed in his recent PR stunt, Newton is obviously a natural leader and inspires the players around him. Playing in a number of high-stakes, close games against the top teams in the country last year, Auburn never once was a team that looked deflated, and Newton was the main reason why they closed the deal every single time.

As far as Denver goes, I think Dareus is obviously a solid, high-floor pick for them. I also think, however, that Patrick Peterson would be the better pick. I'd say Denver is equally weak at both tackle and cornerback, and I think Peterson is the top prospect in the draft.

On the other hand, I can understand why John Fox would want to go defensive line with his first pick. He made a living in Carolina by emphasizing an ability to dictate what happens in the trenches. More specifically, his success can be especially traced to four names: Jenkins, Buckner, Rucker and Peppers. That defensive line and the chaos it inflicted upon offenses is what got Fox to where he is, so it's easy to see why he's shooting for the same thing in Denver. But he also needs a Stephen Davis, so look for Denver to target a runner with one of its picks in the second round (no, Knowshon Moreno isn't gonna cut it).

If Buffalo goes with Von Miller with the third pick, I think it'll be the first time in forever where the Bills will get a universal thumbs-up from fans and front offices alike. Miller is not only an incredible athlete with excellent college production, but he comes off as extremely smart and committed to the game. He's the rare prospect with both a high floor and ceiling at a premium position, and a 3-4 team like Buffalo can't pass on that opportunity.

Ryan Mallett

2. The more I read, the more skeptical I become of the rumors that hound Ryan Mallett. The way media members felt entitled to interrogate him at the Combine based on internet gossip and then became indignant at his rejection of the notion was kind of comical in my opinion. Outside of a public intoxication arrest (big deal, yeah?), there wasn't a single bit of concrete evidence that Mallett had ever done something wrong besides drink underage, and yet media members almost universally took a hostile, drug-addict-until-proven-innocent tone with him. I think it makes them look all of the following: childish, gullible, sensationalist, shallow.

If Mallett doesn't have the character issues that the internet alleges, then he's poised to be a huge steal. Not even JaMarcus could throw the football like he can, and the mobility concerns are exaggerated. It's true that Mallet is incapable of running, but his actual in-pocket movement is not as bad as players like Drew Bledsoe or Vinny Testaverde. Straight-line speed and range are very different things, and the latter is more important for a quarterback's ability to move in the pocket. Mallett checks out surprisingly well as far as that goes.

Nick Fairley

3. Similarly, I think Nick Fairley is getting questionable criticism on character grounds. I was always one of the most vocal people when it comes to him being a dirty player, which he definitely was at Auburn, but people questioning his competitiveness, I think, might be off the mark.

Fairley played with downright crazed intensity last year. While I can see the potential contract-year parallel, given that Fairley declared for the draft after the year, I don't quite think it translates. Watching Fairley play, you see a guy who takes the game personally. Moreover, no one (no one) identified Fairley as a potential top draft prospect before this year. He had no reason to think there was money in it for him when he abused Arkansas State and Mississippi State for three sacks and four tackles for loss in the season's first two games.

If Fairley had only turned on the motor in the second half of last year, when he realized Auburn was going big places, then I'd be concerned. The bottom line for Fairley is this: he played at a level comparable to Ndamukong Suh last year. He wasn't quite as good, and he only did it for one year, but the ability is there. He's still my favorite 4-3 tackle in the draft (though it's worth noting that he doesn't look like a fit in the 3-4, unlike Dareus).

Running Backs

4. Most people look at the lack of an Adrian Peterson/Darren McFadden sort of running back in this class and assume there are therefore no good runners. I take the opposite position. I find this draft to be extremely strong at running back.

That's probably because I'm generally biased against the idea of spending high picks on runners, so the lack of a clear first-round option is basically meaningless to me. Too often you can find guys like, say, Arian Foster, LeGarrette Blount, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Jamaal Charles, Marion Barber, Ray Rice, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Fred Jackson, Curtis Martin, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green, Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, etc. at a far cheaper expense.

This draft is absolutely loaded with guys who merit 2^nd-through-4^th round grades. The number of runners I can see starting in the NFL is in the double digits. I'm a particularly big fan of Mikel Leshoure (Illinois) and Johnny White (North Carolina). I really like Bilal Powell (Louisville), Damien Berry (Miami, Fla.), Allen Bradford (USC), Alex Green (Hawaii) and Anthony Allen (Georgia Tech) as mid and late-round targets.