The parameters: 5X5, 13-team National League only with 2 C, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 SS, 1 CI, 1 MI, 5 OF, 1 Util, 10P, 6 reserves and a $260 budget. The full results:
Some observations:
Among the eight players who recorded 40-plus steals last season, just one played in the National League, so stolen bases are at a premium. It came as no surprise, then, when Michael Bourn cost $23, pricey for someone who was a negative in home runs (two), runs batted in (38) and batting average (.265) last season. With steals so scarce, I ended up spending $19 on Dexter Fowler, who was successful on just 13 of his 21 steal attempts in 2010. Still, he's one year removed from swiping 27 bags as a rookie while playing in just 135 games, and despite a career batting average of .259, Fowler's OBP is a solid .351 thanks to a strong walk rate. He is a switch-hitter, and if last year's improvement against right-handers is a sign of things to come, his average is sure to rise as well. Fowler turns 25 this month and is entering his third year in the league with the benefit of Coors Field at his disposal. With Brad Hawpe gone, Fowler will finally be given a true everyday job, and don't be surprised if his price is higher than Bourn's at 2011 auctions.
After the big four of Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder, there's a tier of first basemen I value similarly who will come much cheaper. The group includes Carlos Pena, Aubrey Huff, Ike Davis, Gaby Sanchez and James Loney. I ended up with two of them, with the thinking that third base is far thinner, so it's most cost effective to buy a first baseman for the corner infield spot. Davis strikes out too much, but I was happy to secure him for $16. Still just 23, Davis is coming off a September in which he hit .344/.445/.533 while walking as many times as he struck out. Loney was my other purchase for $15. He has averaged just 12 home runs over the past three seasons, making him unattractive in mixed leagues, but he has also averaged 89.3 R.B.I. in that span and is a safe option in N.L.-only formats where at-bats are a premium. Loney actually led the majors last season with a 24.5 percent line drive rate, and one of these years more of his fly balls will clear the fence (7.3, 7.3, 6.3 home run percentage of fly balls over the past three years; the league average is 10.6). For reference, prices for a few third basemen: Ian Stewart, $15; Chase Headley, $15; David Freese, $14; and Jose Lopez, $16.
With 16 teams in the National League, only a few of the 13 L.A.B.R. teams will have more than one closer on their rosters, and I'm one of them, at least according to current depth charts. I spent $17 on Francisco Rodriguez, who quietly rebounded in a big way last year (67 strikeouts, 21 walks, 2.20 earned run average, 1.15 WHIP) before his season ended prematurely. Brad Lidge was my other buy for $12, and while I did not target a pitcher so volatile – his E.R.A.'s for the past five seasons are 5.28, 3.36, 1.95, 7.21 and 2.96 – I thought that $11 was too cheap for the unquestioned closer on the team heavily favored to win the National League. Florida and Atlanta have unsettled ninth-inning situations, Huston Street is an injury risk, Francisco Cordero could easily lose his job to Aroldis Chapman, and Brandon Lyon's peripherals suggest that a blowup could occur at any moment. Pay the extra dollar for a closer in a secure role, as it is the rare position where one could lose 99 percent of his fantasy value if called into pitch one inning earlier than expected.