As conference tournaments start today, here's how I see the field of 68.
Big East - Pitt (RPI 6), Georgetown (8), Notre Dame (10), St. John's (14), Syracuse (16), Louisville (18), UConn (20), West Virginia (21), & Villanova (31) are in.
Cincinnati: RPI 37th, KenPom 25th, & Sagarin 17th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Georgetown (8), St. John's (14), Louisville (18), & Xavier (22)
100+ RPI Losses: None
They pretty much secured their spot with their win at Georgetown last Wednesday. This was the game in which Chris Wright got hurt for the Hoyas. I can't say enough about how well Mick Cronin has done handling the Yancy Gates situation. They are in the tourney.
Marquette: RPI 52nd, KenPom 27th, & Sagarin 27th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Notre Dame (10), Syracuse (16), UConn (20), & West Virginia (21)
100+ RPI Losses: None
Their overtime win at UConn last Thursday is one of their few road wins this season and is what put them over the top. They're in the tourney.
Big Ten - Ohio State (3), Purdue (6), & Wisconsin (13) are in.
Illinois: RPI 38th, KenPom 22nd, & Sagarin 29th
Top 50 RPI Wins: UNC (11), Wisconsin (13), & Michigan State (42)
100+ RPI Losses: Indiana (178) & Illinois-Chicago (288)
This team hasn't won two games in a row since early January. As a senior PG, Demetri McCamey should be the leader of this team, but his erratic play leaves them inconsistent from game to game. They finish at Purdue and at home against Indiana. I think they're in.
Michigan State: RPI 42nd, KenPom 48th, & Sagarin 38th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Wisconsin (13), Illinois (38), & Washington (43)
100+ RPI Losses: Iowa (183)
They should have lost at Minnesota last Tuesday, but the Gophers went cold the last five minutes of the game and choked away the win. They looked terrible on Sunday at home against Purdue. I didn't expect them to win the game, but to get blown out by 20 at home isn't encouraging. Has anyone seen Durrell Summers? They finish at home against Iowa and at Michigan. They should be in, but two losses and who knows.
Penn State: RPI 56th, KenPom 46th, & Sagarin 53rd
Top 50 RPI Wins: Wisconsin (13), Illinois (38), & Michigan State (42)
100+ RPI Losses: Maine (206)
They can pretty much lock up a bid with a win at home against Ohio State on Tuesday. When they played the Buckeyes in Columbus a little over a month ago, they lost by three. Their last game is at Minnesota, which the way the Gophers are playing is very winnable.
Michigan: RPI 58th, KenPom 45th, & Sagarin 43rd
Top 50 RPI Wins: Michigan State (42)
100+ RPI Losses: Indiana (178)
They have a home game coming up against Michigan State, so that will potentially help them. Their resume is pretty thin, but they've won 7 of their last 10, so that helps. I'd put Penn State in before them, but that's just me.
Minnesota: RPI 60th, KenPom 51st, & Sagarin 47th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Purdue (6), UNC (11), & West Virginia (21)
100+ RPI Losses: Virginia (145) & Indiana (178)
The transfer of Devoe Joseph and injury to Al Nolen has this team sinking fast, losing 8 of their last 9 games. They're going to need to do some serious damage in the conference tourney to have a chance of making the field.
Big 12 - Kansas (2), Texas (9), Kansas State (25), Missouri (28), & Texas A&M (29) are in.
Oklahoma State: RPI 64th, KenPom 85th, & Sagarin 73th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Kansas State (25), Missouri (28), & Missouri State (41)
100+ RPI Losses: Texas Tech (159)
They're 5-9 in the Big 12 and on life support. If they can beat Baylor at home on Tuesday and then go to Oklahoma and win, they'll have a small chance of making it. More realistically, if they beat Baylor, they'll end the Bears chances of making it in.
Colorado: RPI 76th, KenPom 59th, & Sagarin 54th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Texas (9), Kansas State twice (25), Missouri (28), & Colorado State (47)
100+ RPI Losses: San Francisco (119) & Oklahoma (134)
The Texas win breathed new life into them and with two more wins they'll be 9-7 in the Big 12. They go to Iowa State and then play Nebraska at home. Five wins over teams in the RPI top 50, that's what sticks out most about this team.
Baylor: RPI 77th, KenPom 61st, & Sagarin 61st
Top 50 RPI Wins: Texas A&M twice (29)
100+ RPI Losses: Oklahoma (134), Iowa State (139), & Texas Tech (159)
They've beaten Texas A&M twice, but that's about it. They finish at Oklahoma State and then at home against Texas. Even if they win both games, they still won't have as good a resume as Colorado, who they already beat at home. I don't like this team's chances to make it in.
Nebraska: RPI 82nd, KenPom 44th, & Sagarin 55th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Texas (9) & Texas A&M (29)
100+ RPI Losses: Iowa State (139), Davidson (157), & Texas Tech (159)
The Iowa State loss on Saturday crushed their at-large hopes and put their conference record at 6-8.
SEC - Florida (12), Kentucky (15), Vanderbilt (23), & Tennessee (35) are in.
Georgia: RPI 36th, KenPom 56th, & Sagarin 48th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Kentucky (15), UAB (32), & Tennessee (35)
100+ RPI Losses: None
They don't have a loss to any team with a RPI below 35, which is pretty good. They finish at home against LSU and at Alabama. As long as they don't lose to LSU, they should be in.
Ole Miss: RPI 72, KenPom 70th, & Sagarin 77th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Kentucky (15) & Southern Miss (40)
100+ RPI Losses: South Carolina (116) & Mississippi State twice (128)
I only listed the Rebels here because they have a RPI higher than Alabama, who is a team on the bubble. They're currently 6-8 in the SEC West, which is the much weaker of the two. Nothing about them says NCAA tournament.
Alabama: RPI 86th, KenPom 39th, & Sagarin 63th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Kentucky (15) & Tennessee (35)
100+ RPI Losses: Arkansas (100), Seton Hall (101), St. Peter's (122), Providence (149), & Iowa (183)
Is 11-3 in the feeble SEC West good enough to make the tourney? Look at all those bad losses. They finish at Florida and then at home against Georgia. If they beat Georgia, I think they're in, but it could be very close.
ACC - Duke (5) & UNC (11) are in.
Boston College: RPI 46th, KenPom 64th, & Sagarin 56th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Texas A&M (29)
100+ RPI Losses: Yale (155)
Their best road win is at Maryland… this is what passes as a bubble team in the ACC. They finish at VT and then at home against Wake Forest. I doubt they make it because they simply can't get enough high profile wins to make it. A win at VT and the Hokies might be finished.
Florida State: RPI 47th, KenPom 41st, & Sagarin 41st
Top 50 RPI Wins: Duke (5) & Boston College (46)
100+ RPI Losses: Auburn (271)
Few teams have a win as good as Duke and a loss equally as bad in Auburn. However, the real story here is Chris Singleton and his fractured foot. If he can not make it back for the tourney and I don't think he will, the committee will have a hard time deciding what to do with the Seminoles. They finish at home against UNC and then at NC State. I think they make the tourney, but just barely.
Virginia Tech: RPI 53rd, KenPom 30th, & Sagarin 35th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Duke (5) & Florida State (47th)
100+ RPI Losses: Virginia twice (145) & Georgia Tech (180)
The win at Duke brings them back into the picture. They finish at home against BC and then on the road at Clemson. I think they need to win out to make tourney. My guess is that they do just that and continue their success into the conference tourney to pick up enough wins to make it.
Pac-10 - Arizona (17), UCLA (33), & Washington (43) are in.
California: RPI 67th, KenPom 66th, & Sagarin 69th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Temple (29) & UCLA (33)
100+ RPI Losses: Stanford (140)
9-8 in the Pac 10 is nice, but the conference isn't very good. My guess is that their RPI is this high because they played a good non-conference schedule. Of course they only won one of those games in Temple. They finish at home agains Stanford. I don't think they'll make the tourney.
Washington State: RPI 74th, KenPom 49th, & Sagarin 50th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Washington twice (43)
100+ RPI Losses: Stanford (140), Oregon (144), & Arizona State (152)
I like Klay Thompson, but beating your in state rival twice isn't enough. Moreover, they're just 8-8 in the conference. They finish at home against USC and UCLA. It wouldn't shock me to see this team run the table in the conference tournament.
USC: RPI 80th, KenPom 43rd, & Sagarin 68th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Texas (9), Arizona (17), UCLA (33), & Tennessee (35)
100+ RPI Losses: Rider (107), Oregon twice (144), TCU (200), Oregon State (229), & Bradley (243)
I'm really pulling for this USC team, but they took too many bad losses before Jio Fontan got there. They finish the season at Washington State and at Washington. If they can win both of those games, then maybe they have a shot with some conference tournament wins. I doubt they make it.
Mountain West - BYU (1), San Diego State (4), & UNLV (26) are in.
Colorado State: RPI 47th, KenPom 71st, & Sagarin 66th
Top 50 RPI Wins: UNLV (26) & Southern Miss (40)
100+ RPI Losses: Air Force (103), Hampton (177), & Sam Houston (204)
After losing three in a row, I just don't see the Rams making the tourney. They finish the season at home against Utah, then at San Diego State. If they won both of those games, then maybe we can start talking bubble again.
New Mexico: RPI 90th, KenPom 52nd, & Sagarin 62nd
Top 50 RPI Wins: BYU (1) & Colorado State (47)
100+ RPI Losses: Northern Iowa (104), Utah twice (110), & Wyoming (258)
They were taking on serious water after losing four in a row, but popped back up to beat TCU. Their best non-conference win is over Colorado. The loss at home to Utah is what really knocked them out.
Atlantic 10 - Xavier (22) & Temple (29) are in.
Richmond: RPI 61st, KenPom 58, & Sagarin 45th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Purdue (6)
100+ RPI Losses: Georgia Tech (180)
I like this Richmond team, but I don't like their entire resume coming from their lone win against Purdue. They have Saint Joesph's on the road and then at home for Duquesne. They should win both of those games and finish third in the conference regular season race.
Dayton: RPI 66th, KenPom 93rd, & Sagarin 85th
Top 50 RPI Wins: George Mason (24)
100+ RPI Losses: UMass (138)
Not a lot of meat on this bone. They're 7–7 in conference, but 0-4 against the top three conference teams. Unless they win the conference tournament I don't see them getting in. I thought after winning the NIT last season this team would be ready to make the tournament, guess not.
Colonial - George Mason (24) & Old Dominion (27) are in.
VCU: RPI 63rd, KenPom 92, & Sagarin 81st
Top 50 RPI Wins: Old Dominion (27), UCLA (33), & Wichita State (50)
100+ RPI Losses: South Florida (158), Northeastern (161), & Georgia State (233)
They lost to Old Dominion & George Mason back to back at home, which hurt, but then they bounced back and beat Wichita State on the road in their Bracketbuster game. They really put themselves in a bind after they lost their last two conference games against Drexel and James Madison. Had they won those games, maybe they make the field as an at-large, but as is, they'll need to at minimum make the Colonial finals.
West Coast - I think they get St. Mary's and Gonzaga both in because they both reach the conference finals.
St. Mary's: RPI 49th, KenPom 47th, & Sagarin 37th
Top 50 RPI Wins: St. John's (14)
100+ RPI Losses: San Diego (312)
They were on track to get an at-large bid and a comfortable seeding, but then the whole thing went to crap. First they lost to San Diego on the road, then they lost their Bracketbuster game with Utah State at home, and finally they let Gonzaga come in and beat them in overtime. I think they'll be ok if they make the conference finals.
Gonzaga: RPI 65th, KenPom 37th, & Sagarin 44th
Top 50 RPI Wins: Xavier (22) & St. Mary's (49)
100+ RPI Losses: San Francisco (119) & Santa Clara (165)
They're lucky that St. Mary's faltered down the stretch and allowed them to get a share of the regular season title. They did a commendable job of scheduling up in the non-conference, but they only have a Xavier win to show for it. Like St. Mary's, I think they're ok if they make the conference finals.
Horizon - Could get one or even two bids if Cleveland State beats Butler in the finals.
Cleveland State: RPI 39th, KenPom 72nd, & Sagarin 58th
Top 50 RPI Wins: None
100+ RPI Losses: Detroit (146)
They finished the regular season with a share of the conference title. They really missed out on a golden opportunity to bump up their profile when they lost to Old Dominion on Brackbuster weekend. The only way I see them making the tournament is by winning the conference tourney because they lost to Butler twice. Granted they only have one bad loss and it's not to the degree of those that Butler has.
Butler: RPI 45th, KenPom 60th, & Sagarin 52nd
Top 50 RPI Wins: Cleveland State twice (39) & Florida State (47)
100+ RPI Losses: Wright State (129), Evansville (135), & Youngstown State (291)
Like Cleveland State, they finished with a share of the conference title. The two wins over Cleveland State may be enough that if they were to lose to them in the Horizon League finals, they could make it as an at-large.
Missouri Valley - I think the conference gets only one bid, but that could change if Wichita State beats Missouri State in the conference finals.
Missouri State: RPI 41st, KenPom 77th, & Sagarin 71st
Top 50 RPI Wins: Wichita State twice (50)
100+ RPI Losses: Northern Iowa (104), Indiana State (106), & Evansville (135)
They're on the good side of things here as they won the conference regular season title and in doing so, beat Wichita State twice. I think they still have a decent shot at making the field as an at-large should they lose in the finals to Wichita State.
Wichita State: RPI 50th, KenPom 57th, & Sagarin 59th
Top 50 RPI Wins: None
100+ RPI Losses: Northern Iowa (104) & Southern Illinois (211)
Losing their Bracketbuster game to VCU at home hurt, but losing at Missouri State for the regular season Missouri Valley title hurt worse. They'll now have to win the conference tourney to make the field of 68.
C-USA - Maybe the most confusing conference as three teams have RPIs from 30 to 40, yet when you look at each of them, they don't hold up. This leads me to believe that the conference will only receive one bid - the automatic one.
UAB: RPI 32nd, KenPom 55th, & Sagarin 51st
Top 50 RPI Wins: None
100+ RPI Losses: Arizona State (152)
No good wins, but only one really bad loss. They finish the season at Southern Miss and then at home against East Carolina. If they beat Southern Miss, they'll seal up sole possession of the conference regular season title.
Memphis: RPI 34, KenPom 95th, & Sagarin 72nd
Top 50 RPI Wins: UAB twice (32) & Southern Miss twice (40)
100+ RPI Losses: Rice (188) & SMU (197)
They beat UAB and Southern Miss twice, so that's good, but how did they lose to my Rice Owls and SMU? The Rice loss was by 15 points, but maybe worse is their loss on Saturday to UTEP by 27 points. They are not playing with much confidence right now.
Southern Miss: RPI 40th, KenPom 65th, & Sagarin 57th
Top 50 RPI Wins: UAB (32)
100+ RPI Losses: SMU (197)
If they beat UAB at home, they then go to Tulsa for a chance to join a massive 12-6 party for a share of the conference title. The only way they make the dance is if they win the conference tourney.
As it stands, here's how I think the field will breakdown:
Big East (11) - Pitt, Georgetown, Notre Dame, St. John's, Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, West Virginia, Villanova, Cincinnati, & Marquette.
Big Ten (7) - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State, & Michigan
Big 12 (6) - Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas A&M, & Colorado
SEC (6) - Florida, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Georgia, & Alabama
ACC (4) - Duke, UNC, Florida State, & Virginia Tech
Pac-10 (3) - Arizona, UCLA, & Washington
Mountain West (3) - BYU, San Diego State, & UNLV
Atlantic 10 (3) - Xavier, Temple, & Richmond
Colonial (2) - George Mason & Old Dominion
West Coast (2) - St. Mary's & Gonzaga
Single bid conferences (21): American East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, C-USA, Horizon, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, SWAC, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, & WAC.
Last Four In: Virginia Tech, Richmond, Alabama, & Michigan
First Four Out: Cleveland State, VCU, Minnesota, & Baylor
My #1s are Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt, & Duke.