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Best Wing Players in the NBA by the Numbers

About a month ago I took a look at 10 of the top point guards in the league according to 5 different advanced stats (PER, win shares/48 minutes, wins produced/48 minutes, Roland Rating and 1-year adjusted +/-).  I showed the raw values for each player in each stat, then at the end rank-ordered how each player ranked in each stat versus the other point guards under consideration.  The end result gives an interesting rough-and-ready ranking of what "the numbers" say about who is really playing the best this year...not always the same thing as our perceptions. 

So, now I'm back to do the same thing with the elite wings in the NBA.  I expanded a bit (last time 10 wasn't enough candidates...it left notable snubs like Chauncey Billups), so I'll be looking at 27 of the top shooting guards and small forwards in the NBA.  For the sake of space I'll show only the top-15 for each individual stat, but for the rank-order table at the bottom I'll put all 27 in there.  Without further ado...

PER: Hollinger's stat, probably the most popular of the "advanced stats", favorable (compared to other advanced stats) to volume scorers and players that generate a lot of free throws; Generally ranks those considered "great" by the general public well, though also will tend to have role players with good scoring-per-minute very highly.

PER
LeBron James26.6
Dwyane Wade25.2
Kobe Bryant24.3
Kevin Durant24.17
Kevin Martin22.37
Manu Ginobili21.61
Carmelo Anthony21.38
Eric Gordon21.12
Paul Pierce19.53
Monta Ellis18.98
Rudy Gay17.96
Joe Johnson17.94
Danny Granger17.8
Andre Iguodala17.68
Ray Allen17.29

Win Shares: From Basketball-reference.com, emphasizes shooting/scoring efficiency; loves points per shot (thus values FTs drawn).  To account for different minutes played, we're going to look at Win Shares per 48 minutes played.

WS48
LeBron James0.232
Dwyane Wade0.214
Paul Pierce0.203
Manu Ginobili0.2
Kobe Bryant0.187
Kevin Durant0.185
Kevin Martin0.181
Ray Allen0.177
Eric Gordon0.157
Andre Iguodala0.142
Luol Deng0.139
Richard Jefferson0.131
Jason Richardson0.127
Rudy Gay0.124
Danny Granger0.122

Wins Produced: Dave Berri's controversial stat (most likely to be trashed on an APBRmetric board) is also the one seemingly growing fastest in popular usage; wins produced values what he defines as possessions, so loves rebounds, steals, and blocks and doesn't like TOs; doesn't value shot creation, but does value assists.  We'll look at Wins Produced per 48 minutes.

WP48
LeBron James0.347
Dwyane Wade0.299
Landry Fields0.285
Andre Iguodala0.257
Manu Ginobili0.237
Kevin Durant0.223
Paul Pierce0.218
Kobe Bryant0.206
Ray Allen0.193
Andrei Kirilenko0.186
Rudy Gay0.158
Carmelo Anthony0.143
Eric Gordon0.142
Kevin Martin0.139
Gerald Wallace0.128

Roland Rating: 82games.com's Roland Rating is based upon a combination of PER and +/- stats.  It looks at the individual PER of each player, the PER of their primary defensive assignment, and subtracts the 2 for a 1-on-1 value then they combine that 1-on-1 value with a team-impact based on-court/off-court +/- stat to get the rating.  Tends to produce fewest "what???" rankings, because players that rank out highly in both the 1-on-1 and team stats are almost universally who we consider to be among the best in the game...though the order at the top isn't always what you'd expect. (Note: 82games hasn't updated this since Jan. 19, so these results are only current to that date)

Roland Rating
LeBron James15.2
Manu Ginobili12.6
Dwyane Wade11.6
Paul Pierce11.3
Rudy Gay9.6
Kevin Durant9.4
Kobe Bryant8.9
Eric Gordon8.2
Carmelo Anthony7.9
Joe Johnson7.9
Ray Allen6.9
Kevin Martin6.6
Andre Iguodala5.1
Landry Fields4.8
Danny Granger4.3

2-year Adjusted +/-: This is Basketballvalue.com's APM calculation.  As I mentioned above APM is so incredibly noisy that a single year (or less) doesn't give conclusive answers (and too often the answers are nonsensical for my tastes).  Even 2 years may be too short for an APM calculation.  I like longer APM calculations, 4 years or more, to really clean up the noise and give a robust effect.  Nevertheless, we're talking about this year so we'll have to make due on both issues with the 2-year compromise.

2 yr APM2 yr APM SE
LeBron James15.052.71
Kevin Durant12.383.9
Dwyane Wade11.013.27
Luol Deng7.63.62
Gerald Wallace6.983.33
Landry Fields6.874.33
Paul Pierce4.913.44
Manu Ginobili4.832.92
Vince Carter4.83.27
Carmelo Anthony4.633.11
Ray Allen4.173.54
Danny Granger3.343.02
Kobe Bryant2.863.7
Ron Artest2.833.26
Rudy Gay2.773.72

Overall Rank orders: Giving each of our 27 guys a '1' through '27' ranking based on where they ranked in each stat, here is a summary of how each guy did.  I'll add an average across the 5 stats (with standard error) to give us a seat-of-the-pants-advanced-stat-cross-section-view ranking order:

PERWS48WP48Roland Rating2 yr APMAverageStd. Error
LeBron James1111110.00
Dwyane Wade222332.40.24
Kevin Durant466624.80.80
Manu Ginobili6452851.00
Paul Pierce9374761.10
Kobe Bryant3587137.21.69
Ray Allen1589111110.81.20
Eric Gordon891381610.81.59
Carmelo Anthony71712910111.70
Rudy Gay11141151511.21.74
Kevin Martin5714122612.83.68
Andre Iguodala14104132312.83.09
Landry Fields2518314613.23.99
Luol Deng20111719414.22.99
Joe Johnson121916101714.81.66
Danny Granger131523151215.61.94
Andrei Kirilenko161610171915.61.50
Gerald Wallace212115185162.97
Vince Carter23202016917.62.42
Jason Richardson181318222018.21.50
Richard Jefferson261219212119.82.27
Monta Ellis1022212027202.77
Jason Terry192326231821.81.46
Ron Artest272425261423.22.35
Michael Beasley172627252423.81.77
Stephen Jackson2225242722240.95
Tyreke Evans242722242524.40.81

Conclusions:

Every stat, no matter how it was measured, agreed that LeBron James has been the best wing in the NBA this year.  In fact, LeBron and Dwyane Wade measured out 1-2 overall among wings across the body of stats examined here.

Behind the Miami boys is a group of 4 guys on the next tier: Durant, Ginobili, Pierce and Kobe.  While Kobe and Durant are super-duper stars, it's interesting that Ginobili and Pierce measured right there with them this year.

Ray Allen is right behind Kobe, and highlights the next Tier that features eight guys (down to Luol Deng on the list).  This tier is an interesting mix of big names and guys that may be having a bigger impact than their names would suggest.  New Knick Carmelo Anthony is on this tier with Ray, along with several young scorers (Gay, Gordon, Martin) and a couple of more versatile glue/defensive type players (Iguodala, Deng and Fields).

I'm not going to spend much time with the rest, though it is interesting that guys like Joe Johnson and Monta Ellis are maybe further down the list than you might expect.  The take-away for me is that while Miami (obviously) is built around 2 super-wings, the Celtics (and I guess, now, the Knicks) are the only other teams with two wings from among the top 3 tiers.